# "Why I don't think OMG ABC believes his own bullshit" **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [October 26, 2012, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984 "2012-10-26T23:47:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984/41 "2012-10-29T01:21:41Z")
Personally I think that Romney has a ~33% chance of victory. That’s not a sufficient margin for me to make a 50:50 bet under these circumstances. But if a poster claims they are absolutely positive that Romney will win, I think it’s fair to ask them to put something tangible where their mouth is. I asked **Bricker** once to give me 3:1[?] odds on this election. He replied that he wasn’t 3:1 confident: he was even money confident. I thought his answer was honorable. OMG hems and haws. I think he’s full of horse pucky – but so are most people when asked to back their opinions with something tangible, even if it’s of rather symbolic importance. In other words, most bold pronouncements in real life and on political television are BS. Not all though. Nate Silver pointed out that the predictions on the McLaughlin Group are equivalent to coin tossing. And some pundits (Dick Morris, IIRC) are worse (though a few are better - Clarence Page, for example). I’ll add that the OP is ignoring transactions costs. Personally, I’d be reluctant to bet with prr as I don’t trust his character and I wouldn’t want to negotiate a friendly wager with him. Furthermore, bringing up the betting subject is a method of deflating blowhards. Once they turn you down, the job is over: there’s no need for a pit thread: they’ve already demonstrated their phoniness. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984/42 "2012-10-29T01:44:00Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > I think it’s pretty well indisputable at this point that OMB is trolling here, and that he doesn’t believe Romney will win for an instant. FTR, I offered OMG even money for $100 on the election. I didn’t hear any response. That said, I don’t take that as any sort of evidence that he doesn’t believe Romney will win. I have no reason to doubt his sincerity. Why should I? I’m perfectly happy to accept his initial response in this thread. ---
**Author:** ![Cheshire\_Human](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/5f8ce5/32.png) [@Cheshire\_Human](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheshire_Human)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984/43 "2012-10-29T01:53:14Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Wow, something embarrassing in his sig line. Do they call you “The Plankton” when you visit Vegas? No, they call him " **Pseudointillectual Retard Retard.** Of course, to be fair, what they call **OMG** is a bit worse. And it _doesn’t_ end with ‘Conservative’. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984/44 "2012-10-29T02:03:08Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > FTR, I offered OMG even money for $100 on the election. I didn’t hear any response. That said, I don’t take that as any sort of evidence that he doesn’t believe Romney will win. I have no reason to doubt his sincerity. Why should I? I’m perfectly happy to accept his initial response in this thread. $100 might be a lot of money to OMG, you never know. Besides there are problems (and I should know) in trying to collect money from an on-line entity, which why I suggested making a bet affecting only one’s on-line appearance for a few months. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984/45 "2012-10-29T02:08:57Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > I admit, it’s very small potatoes. > > But he isn’t willing to risk even that. What does that tell you? I’ve offered small bets many time to **elucidator** , and he has always declined. Same thing with **Der Trihs**. What doest hat tell you? ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984/46 "2012-10-29T02:49:52Z")
I’ve already stated what I thought declining money bets could mean. Were these money bets? Link me to a few of your offers, and I’ll see if I can find a reason for turning you down. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984/47 "2012-10-29T03:09:33Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > I’ve already stated what I thought declining money bets could mean. Were these money bets? Link me to a few of your offers, and I’ll see if I can find a reason for turning you down. They were open ended bets where they could offer whatever stakes they wished. Always declined. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984/48 "2012-10-29T03:19:36Z")
[Here’s a two-fer for you.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9909275&postcount=46). An explicitly non-monetary bet offered to both of those guys. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984/49 "2012-10-29T03:31:58Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > [Here’s a two-fer for you.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=9909275&postcount=46). An explicitly non-monetary bet offered to both of those guys. I can’t speak for them, but it’s possible that they saw the probability of war as something like 20%, while you saw it as zero – and then offered them 50:50 odds. In other words, you offered a semi-sucker bet. At any rate I didn’t think it was specified in a sufficiently enlightening manner. ## That said, elucidator and Der don’t strike me as the type who align rhetoric with carefully considered position too well. Most do not, which is why most demur from betting. I find offering a wager a useful method of highlighting this phenomenon. The funny part is that some people say they don’t gamble on such things _proudly_, even if the stakes are low and largely symbolic. ETA: **prr** : It’s _rare_ for a blowhard to take up an offer of a bet. So why are you singling out poor OMG? ETA2: I offer a Romney predictor this: I’ll choose this as my sig for a month: “I gave Obama 2:1 odds on Oct 28, 2012. Sigh.” That’s my initial offer anyway, subject to negotiation… ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984/50 "2012-10-29T03:32:00Z")
OK, I’ll do one better, then. I’m pro-Obama. I’ll take $100 on Romney to the first taker. At least, that way, I can console myself with $100 worth of scotch if Obama loses. Serious bet, and you can post far and wide if I fail to pay on it. I’m good for it. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984/51 "2012-10-29T03:33:39Z")
So if I offered to bet you ‘something significant’ on the outcome of a poll: “Do you think PRR is full of shit in this instance?” and over 50% endorse that proposition, would you let it go, already? ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984/52 "2012-10-29T03:49:16Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > So if I offered to bet you ‘something significant’ on the outcome of a poll: “Do you think PRR is full of shit in this instance?” and over 50% endorse that proposition, would you let it go, already? If I were prr, I’d request that the language be tightened, bargain for an 80% cutoff, settle for 2/3. One reason why I like these wagers is that they demand precision about the underlying disagreement. The downside is that they are hard to specify in a mutually agreeable manner, even when both parties operate in good faith. In other words it is challenging to state the implications of beliefs in an observable and verifiable manner. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984/53 "2012-10-29T03:53:33Z")
For someone how slings more BS than 90% of the posters here, the OP has set himself up for a slew of bets to prove the he believes his own. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 10:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984/54 "2012-10-29T10:45:19Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > For someone how slings more BS than 90% of the posters here, the OP has set himself up for a slew of bets to prove the he believes his own. Really? Let me know what I sling that you think is BS. Or is your 90% itself BS? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984/55 "2012-10-29T13:28:33Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > What’s next? A bet that if you lose, you have to let Megan Fox give you a oil massage once a day? In fairness, she has _really_ sharp fingernails. > [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Because I don’t care about getting some meaningless internet gratification about being right about the election any more than it would bother me that someone I’ve never met and will probably never would get some gratification out of me being wrong. The world still would turn and life would go on. … and **prr** will still be full of shit. ---
**Author:** ![Clothahump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/51bf81/32.png) [@Clothahump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Clothahump)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984/56 "2012-10-29T14:03:12Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > Obviously more blatant, seeing as he’s not been banned. > > He may be here to stir things up, but I do think he really is a conservative. He just lacks the courage of his convictions. **That isn’t too unusual for a non-religious conservative, as many of them believe as they do out of fear.** Cite? ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984/57 "2012-10-29T14:06:51Z")
… or as a result of a childhood lobotomy in your case, one presumes. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984/58 "2012-10-29T14:49:11Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > So if I offered to bet you ‘something significant’ on the outcome of a poll: “Do you think PRR is full of shit in this instance?” and over 50% endorse that proposition, would you let it go, already? How am I full of shit, exactly? Are you claiming that I WOULDN’T bet OMG ABC on the election? That betting isn’t evidence of one’s beliefs? What exactly are you saying here? ---
**Author:** ![Sitnam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Sitnam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sitnam)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984/59 "2012-10-29T15:02:33Z")
Whats wrong with thinking Romney will win the election? I have serious misgivings about Obama’s chances suddenly myself. I’m not sure what kind of gotcha an incorrect prognostication is supposed to be. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984/60 "2012-10-29T15:05:18Z")
Nothing wrong with it. I’m just saying that OMG ABC is boasting that “Obama is toast,” which is more confidence in Romney than I have in Obama, although I have more reason to have confidence than he does. I’m willing to bet on my candidate, yet he continues to run his mouth but refuses to bet on it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-dont-think-omg-abc-believes-his-own-bullshit/638984.md?page=4)