# Why I think Obama could lose **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [October 27, 2008, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-could-lose/469819 "2008-10-27T19:12:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 9\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![FriarTed](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/friarted/32/1052_2.png) [@FriarTed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FriarTed)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-could-lose/469819/41 "2008-10-28T13:52:35Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > You’re right. it is ridiculous. I can name a number of prominent blacks off the top of my head who are going to vote for McCain: > > Alan ‘the self-hating black man’ Keyes > Clarence ‘the mysogynist pig and racist sympathizer’ Thomas > Michael ‘the apologist and denier’ Steele > Shelby ‘blacks will only go so far’ Steele > Juan ‘the token black FOX News butt licker’ Williams > Armstrong ‘the unrepentent former Strom Thurmond bootlicker’ Williams > > There are sadly many, many more: Roy Innis, Lynn Swann, Larry Elder, etc… etc… You get the picture. > > There. I’ve gone and gotten myself pissed off. :mad: Why don’t you just call each one “Uncle Tom”? God forbid a black man might think differently than the Democratic/Liberal establishment. Now I have something for this thread… [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=10369201](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=10369201) ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Carrot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@Captain\_Carrot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Carrot)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-could-lose/469819/42 "2008-10-28T13:59:03Z")
> [@Ethilrist](#): > > Why would these people doubt Obama will win? Because the people with the money always win. That’s why they’re the ones with the money. If the RNC can afford $150,000 for a set of clothes for Palin to wear for a month and a half, they’ve got money to freakin’ burn, and they’re going to buy this election. The thing is, even combined with McCain they don’t have as much money as Obama does. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-could-lose/469819/43 "2008-10-28T15:13:38Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > Yep. I understand that. I believe it’ll be higher than 1 percent though. There are older generation blacks who, even today, have to be dragged, kicking and screaming to even consider voting for Obama because of their lifetime of conditioning that it’s simply the natural order for whites to run things. I believe \*\*Skald \*\*said, in a recent thread, that his father was going to vote for McCain. **Skald** said his father was voting for McCain [because both of them are pro-life](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=488371), not because he’s been conditioned it’s natural for whites to run things. I agree with **Friar Ted** here, you’re really making some unfair assertions about black conservatives. **Ethilrist** … Obama has more money than McCain. If McCain had more money, Obama wouldn’t have bought a half-hour primetime informercial on the major networks that’s going to run before the World Series tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![Rand\_Rover](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/db5fbb/32.png) [@Rand\_Rover](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rand_Rover)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-could-lose/469819/44 "2008-10-28T15:26:59Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > Yep. I understand that. I believe it’ll be higher than 1 percent though. There are older generation blacks who, even today, have to be dragged, kicking and screaming to even consider voting for Obama because of their lifetime of conditioning that it’s simply the natural order for whites to run things. I believe \*\*Skald \*\*said, in a recent thread, that his father was going to vote for McCain. Skald’s father is voting McCain because of his stance on an issue that Skald’s father cares about. ---
**Author:** ![Find\_Friends](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/c37758/32.png) [@Find\_Friends](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Find_Friends)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-could-lose/469819/45 "2008-10-28T18:01:14Z")
> [@Justin\_Bailey](#): > > Here you go > > [http://www.rochestercitynewspaper.com/news/opinion/2008/09/POLITICS-Barack-Obama-and-our/](http://www.rochestercitynewspaper.com/news/opinion/2008/09/POLITICS-Barack-Obama-and-our/) Thank you, Justin. 🙂 I had been floundering around with the site archives. Now anyone curious about what bothered me so much can read what I read. Opinions in reaction will vary, of course. And it’s interesting to see that other Rochesterians (, New York) have found and joined the SDMB. Barackchester, indeed! 😃 - “Jack” ---
**Author:** ![lorene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/65b543/32.png) [@lorene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lorene)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-could-lose/469819/46 "2008-10-28T18:13:16Z")
> [@Stuffy](#): > > Can you guess what these people have in common? If you’ve already guessed, does it surprise you? I’ll post the answer later. I’d also like to use it as a jump off point for further discussion. Is it that they won’t bother going to the polls that day? That’s what I fear…those people who will just leave it to others to do the voting. ---
**Author:** ![rowrrbazzle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rowrrbazzle/32/414_2.png) [@rowrrbazzle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rowrrbazzle)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-could-lose/469819/47 "2008-10-28T21:12:35Z")
I think it’s still a toss-up. Why? Because the polls are not necessarily accurate. From the cited article [http://www.rochestercitynewspaper.com/news/opinion/2008/09/POLITICS-Barack-Obama-and-our/](http://www.rochestercitynewspaper.com/news/opinion/2008/09/POLITICS-Barack-Obama-and-our/) > [@](#): > > Former New York State Senator Joe Bruno compared Obama to the disgraced Eliot Spitzer, calling him “fancy, dancy, prancy.” Now that does bother me. Because Johnson apparently thinks that’s racist. It’s a pretty low statement, but I can’t see anything racist in it, unless _a priori_ all contemptuous statements about Obama are racist, which I do not accept. > [@](#): > > Most notably, in the 1982 California governor’s election, Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley lost a close race, although all of the major polls showed him substantially ahead heading toward election day. John Kerry was ahead in the polls, too. In fact, the only concrete racist incident in the article was somebody calling Obama “uppity”. As I believe I’ve posted before, when I first heard Obama speak, I hoped I could vote for him. But there was little substance in his early speeches, and I disagreed with that little. Wright and Ayers were deal-breakers, especially because of his transparent lies about his relationships with them that his disciples (including the media) swallowed without a second thought. And the more I learn about Obama, the less I like him. [QUOTE=Ethilrist] Why would these people doubt Obama will win? Because the people with the money always win. That’s why they’re the ones with the money. If the RNC can afford $150,000 for a set of clothes for Palin to wear for a month and a half, they’ve got money to freakin’ burn, and they’re going to buy this election. [/QUOTE] Do you have a cite for that? Oh, wait. Don’t bother. Here’s one. [http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/mapApp.do?cand\_id=P80003338](http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/mapApp.do?cand_id=P80003338) > [@](#): > > Democrats 963.5 > Obama (D) 639.2 > Republicans 589.2 > McCain (R) 335.3 That’s in millions of dollars. IOW the Obama campaign has received almost twice the amount of money compared to McCain, and Democrats overall have received 2/3 more than Republicans. And from the NY Times [http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/business/media/27carr.html?ref=business](http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/27/business/media/27carr.html?ref=business) > [@](#): > > …Mr. Obama has so much money, he is looking for places to stuff it, including a 30-minute buy on most networks and some cable outlets this Wednesday. By your own logic, it’s the DEMOCRATS, not the Republicans, who are buying this election. **Ethilrist** , if you wouldn’t mind, I’m very interested in learning why you made a statement that I proved wrong with less than 5 minutes of Googling. ---
**Author:** ![interface2x](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c0e974/32.png) [@interface2x](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/interface2x)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2008, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-could-lose/469819/48 "2008-10-28T23:26:54Z")
> [@rowrrbazzle](#): > > John Kerry was ahead in the polls, too. Not really. Take a look at the charts over at [Electoral-Vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/ec_graph-2008.html) and it shows the clear difference between 2004 and 2008. Looking at it like that is particularly striking. ---
**Author:** ![kevja](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/aeb1de/32.png) [@kevja](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kevja)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2008, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-could-lose/469819/49 "2008-10-29T02:24:39Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > You’re wrong. If he loses Indiana I won’t be surprised because that one looks like a tossup, and if he loses North Carolina, I won’t be stunned. You have to also give McCain Florida before Obama even goes under 300 EVs, though. Give away Missouri and Nevada and Obama still wins. On top of that you can give away New Hampshire just for kicks. Now you’ve got a 2004 level of closeness. > > Different scenario: give Obama all the states he’s leading in now except Ohio, Virginia and Florida and he still wins. Give McCain Nevada and New Hampshire on top of that and Obama takes it 271-267. > > Things really haven’t changed in a couple of weeks, so I don’t know what you’re expecting to pop up in the next week. I’m weary of any poll that is within the margin of error. And the I would never count a “leaning” state in the bank for either side. There’s not going to be a live boy/dead girl thing. No gaffes, etc. Maybe having lived in a deep blue city for so long it’s easy for me to see the deep red in this country. The hate that is on Craigslist Rants and Raves alone is enough to scare the hell out of me. Let alone all the AM radio talk shows and FOX. And when those people go to the polls, I worry. I really believe McCain still has a chance in OH, PA, and FL. And if he holds the South and Mountain states, it’s going to be a long night. **As I said. I hope I’m wrong.** [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-could-lose/469819.md?page=2)