# "Why I Think Obama Is Toast" **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 26, 2012, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981 "2012-10-26T22:48:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/101 "2012-11-02T16:49:42Z")
Residual storm damage and confusion over voter ID. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/102 "2012-11-02T17:12:17Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Residual storm damage and confusion over voter ID. The bastards are still showing commercials here about showing your ID. There is one line that indicates it isn’t mandatory, and about 100 that reiterate “show it”. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/103 "2012-11-02T17:17:26Z")
And Republicans will likely post signs near polling places that look something like this: PHOTO ID IS REQUIRED TO VOTE in future elections I expect there will be litigation over that issue. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/104 "2012-11-02T17:35:03Z")
> [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](#): > > The fact that Romney and Ryan are scrambling to make appearances in Pennsylvania tells you everything you need to know. They’re seeing that Ohio is not an option and are shifting attention here in a last ditch gamble. If we’re going to adopt this logic then Bill Clinton campaigning in Minnesota is a bad sign for Obama as they’re obviously worried about losing the state. Biden and Obama campaigning in Ohio is also a bad sign for Obama as they are worried about losing the state. You agree, correct? Probably not, but that’s how it goes. You can’t pick and choose what’s a bad sign and what isn’t. Anyway, a more likely scenario for why Romney and Ryan are campaigning there is that Pennsylvania has become a lot more competitive than first thought, as evidenced by the percentage difference in absentee ballots requested between Republicans and Democrats vs 2008 on a county by county basis (Romney is overperforming vs. McCain and Obama underperforming vs his total in 2008). If you throw in the fact that Republicans control the governorship and the House, it’s not all the desperate Hail Mary you think it to be. Romney probably won’t win it (Pennsylvania always seem to be the proverbial state that got away), but rest assured that if he can even get close, it probably doesn’t bode well for Obama elsewhere. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/105 "2012-11-02T17:50:13Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Romney probably won’t win it (Pennsylvania always seem to be the proverbial state that got away), but rest assured that if he can even get close, it probably doesn’t bode well for Obama elsewhere. So let me check your logic here… If Romney campaigns like heck in Pennsylvania, still loses, but “gets close”, this will increase his chances in a state like (say) Colorado? Why would this be? Why would the Colorado voters be influenced by Romney’s last minute push in a far away state? ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/106 "2012-11-02T18:11:08Z")
The only way Obama could be toasted is if the uninformed voter outnumbers the thoughtful one. See what happens when a simple follow up question stymies these Romney supporters: [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/nY0M7IdNl7U/maxresdefault.jpg "Ohio Romney Rally - Interviews with Supporters") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY0M7IdNl7U) ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/107 "2012-11-02T18:14:17Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > So let me check your logic here… > > If Romney campaigns like heck in Pennsylvania, still loses, but “gets close”, this will increase his chances in a state like (say) Colorado? > > Why would this be? Why would the Colorado voters be influenced by Romney’s last minute push in a far away state? Let’s take two states; Ohio and Pennsylvania. The latter is far more “bluer” than the former. In fact, Ohio tends to be more Republican as a whole than the the U.S., on average. Now if Romney loses Pennsylvania by, let’s say, four points, that would constitute approximately a 6% swing from 2008. A swing like that, wouldn’t bode well for other states in the “Rust Belt”, i.e., Ohio, as swings are generally not confined to a single state. It’s hard to imagine Romney could significant inroads in a state like PA but not in surrounding states. As I said, he probably won’t win it, but even getting close (the fact that people are actually talking about the state at all whereas a few months ago it was deemed a lost cause for Republicans), is a pretty good sign for Romney going forward. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/108 "2012-11-02T18:14:18Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > So let me check your logic here… > > If Romney campaigns like heck in Pennsylvania, still loses, but “gets close”, this will increase his chances in a state like (say) Colorado? > > Why would this be? Why would the Colorado voters be influenced by Romney’s last minute push in a far away state? Not OMG but the argument he makes is coherent: the position is that PA is closer than anticipated, justifying make a play for it. And PA would only be that close right now if Obama support across the board is weaker than some think, hence states that have been more narrowly in Obama’s camp (and already being invested in) are likely to flip. In support of that contention is polling data (see RCP) that shows PA going from over O+8 to about half that over the past month. Coherent does not mean correct or based on reasonable presumptions but it is not illogical. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/109 "2012-11-02T18:16:09Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Biden and Obama campaigning in Ohio is also a bad sign for Obama as they are worried about losing the state. You agree, correct? Probably not, but that’s how it goes. You can’t pick and choose what’s a bad sign and what isn’t. Ridiculous. One side is consistently polling ahead, the other side isn’t. Both sides know that victory lies through Ohio. If you’re ahead, you don’t quit and walk off days before it’s over; you keep the other guy from gaining ground and win. Defense, my friend. Block the other guy’s attempts in Ohio, MN, PA, where ever and run out the clock. What’s happening here is akin to if Obama was getting losing numbers in Ohio that he couldn’t budge and suddenly shifted his resources to Missouri, saying it was “in play”. I know I wouldn’t be encouraged to see him do that. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/110 "2012-11-02T18:21:03Z")
Don’t read too much into campaigns’ focus in the last few days- Romney could be trying to compete in PA because he’s satisfied where he’s at in OH and VA (for example), or he could be trying there out of desperation because he knows he’s lost OH. And Obama could be playing “defense” in PA and other states like MN just because they have extra money to spend, even if they’re confident in their lead, or it could be because they’re actually worried. Based on the polling, of course, I think one explanation is more likely, but I wouldn’t make that call just because of what the campaigns are doing. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/111 "2012-11-02T18:22:30Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > Ridiculous. One side is consistently polling ahead, the other side isn’t. Both sides know that victory lies through Ohio. If you’re ahead, you don’t quit and walk off days before it’s over; you keep the other guy from gaining ground and win. Defense, my friend. Block the other guy’s attempts in Ohio, MN, PA, where ever and run out the clock. > > What’s happening here is akin to if Obama was getting losing numbers in Ohio that he couldn’t budge and suddenly shifted his resources to Missouri, saying it was “in play”. I know I wouldn’t be encouraged to see him do that. Sooo… “Heads you win, tails I lose”? Seems convenient enough. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/112 "2012-11-02T18:26:19Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Coherent does not mean correct or based on reasonable presumptions but it is not illogical. Agreed. I think **OMG** ’s wrong because a whole lot more campaigning has been going on in Ohio, thus making the ‘it should adhere to national patterns’ argument invalid, but the logic is there. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/113 "2012-11-02T18:28:49Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Sooo… “Heads you win, tails I lose”? Seems convenient enough. Hey, if you want to believe he’s in PA because he’s so impressed with his inability to shift Ohio 2-3 points that he thinks he should spend extra time trying to move PA five points just for extra giggles, go for it. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/114 "2012-11-02T18:43:31Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > The only way Obama could be toasted is if the uninformed voter outnumbers the thoughtful one. See what happens when a simple follow up question stymies these Romney supporters: > > [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY0M7IdNl7U&feature=share](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY0M7IdNl7U&feature=share) That was scarier than anything on saw on Halloween. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/115 "2012-11-02T19:12:30Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > The only way Obama could be toasted is if the uninformed voter outnumbers the thoughtful one. See what happens when a simple follow up question stymies these Romney supporters: > > [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY0M7IdNl7U&feature=share](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY0M7IdNl7U&feature=share) Maybe they should carry [this handy chart](https://www.motherjones.com/files/mojo-obama-conspiracy.png) to keep everything straight. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/116 "2012-11-02T22:01:40Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > Hey, if you want to believe he’s in PA because he’s so impressed with his inability to shift Ohio 2-3 points that he thinks he should spend extra time trying to move PA five points just for extra giggles, go for it. I’m no political insider, but I would think that Romney’s internals show him in a decent position in Ohio. If he wasn’t, he would be camped out there rather than in Pennsylvania, as getting PA to go “red” is a far harder task than it is to get Ohio to do the same. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/117 "2012-11-02T22:10:10Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > I’m no political insider, but I would think that Romney’s internals show him in a decent position in Ohio. If he wasn’t, he would be camped out there rather than in Pennsylvania, as getting PA to go “red” is a far harder task than it is to get Ohio to do the same. No, this is like pulling the goalie at the end of a hockey game. Chances are much better that you give up a goal rather than score one, but if the game ends with the score you have now, you lose. So what the hell? Pull the goalie and change the odds to 10%. He’s hoping against reason that Ohio will take care of itself, and going after the next easiest big state. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/118 "2012-11-02T22:19:55Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > I’m no political insider, but I would think that Romney’s internals show him in a decent position in Ohio. If he wasn’t, he would be camped out there rather than in Pennsylvania, as getting PA to go “red” is a far harder task than it is to get Ohio to do the same. And if Romney was in Ohio instead of PA, then I am sure you would say that if he was in Ohio it is because he solidifying his lead there. **OMG** I have an honest question for you, what will you say if Obama wins…especially if wins with 300+. I promise I will come here and praise you to the sky if Romney wins. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/119 "2012-11-02T22:26:27Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > I’m no political insider, but I would think that Romney’s internals show him in a decent position in Ohio. If he wasn’t, he would be camped out there rather than in Pennsylvania, as getting PA to go “red” is a far harder task than it is to get Ohio to do the same. Or his internals shows exactly what the rest of the polls show: Ohio +2.5% is Obama’s floor and Romney isn’t going to break it. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/120 "2012-11-02T22:48:10Z")
The issue for any campaign is how much potential return on the investment. Another few million in Ohio is not going to change the odds there at this point. Voters have heard the ads _ad nauseum_. There it is now time for ground game. That analysis would hold whether he is down or competitive. PA OTOH has not seen these ads. A few million there may have low odds of swinging the state but low odds is better than none and you know that the other side will have to spend to match to so you are losing little in the process relatively. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981.md?page=7)