# "Why I Think Obama Is Toast" **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 26, 2012, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981 "2012-10-26T22:48:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![yorick73](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/b5a626/32.png) [@yorick73](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yorick73)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/121 "2012-11-02T23:08:57Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The issue for any campaign is how much potential return on the investment. Another few million in Ohio is not going to change the odds there at this point. Voters have heard the ads _ad nauseum_. There it is now time for ground game. That analysis would hold whether he is down or competitive. > > PA OTOH has not seen these ads. A few million there may have low odds of swinging the state but low odds is better than none and you know that the other side will have to spend to match to so you are losing little in the process relatively. That’s absolutely true. But, it does not explain why Romney is there. The most valuable commodity a candidate has is his time. Romney must feel that he can win there if he is spending time there. Obama must feel the same way since they are almost matching Romney in ad dollars. Even the [New York Times](http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/us/politics/in-shift-romney-campaign-makes-push-in-pennsylvania.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=1&) reports that there is a tangible sense that the race is tilting toward Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2012, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/122 "2012-11-02T23:41:38Z")
> [@yorick73](#): > > ]New York Times reports that there is a tangible sense that the race is tilting toward Romney. Why yes, I can see why you’d say that. It this it? > [@](#): > > Mr. Romney’s appearance here on Sunday could be a crafty political move to seriously undercut President Obama, or it could be a sign of desperation. Oh wait, no, here it is: > [@](#): > > But there is a tangible sense — seen in Romney yard signs on the expansive lawns of homes in the well-heeled suburbs, and heard in the excited voices of Republican mothers who make phone calls to voters in their spare time — that the race is tilting toward Mr. Romney. Bwahahahahaha! “Yard signs in the expansive lawns”? “Excited voices of Republican mothers”? They go on to say that the suburban, upper middle class women don’t fear Romney as much as they would have feared Santorum. So the Republicans are confident. This is Gold, Jerry, comedy gold! ---
**Author:** ![AtomicDog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ac91a4/32.png) [@AtomicDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AtomicDog)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/123 "2012-11-03T02:29:24Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > The only way Obama could be toasted is if the uninformed voter outnumbers the thoughtful one. See what happens when a simple follow up question stymies these Romney supporters: > > [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY0M7IdNl7U&feature=share](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY0M7IdNl7U&feature=share) _Picard facepalm_ ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/124 "2012-11-03T03:44:36Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > The only way Obama could be toasted is if the uninformed voter outnumbers the thoughtful one. See what happens when a simple follow up question stymies these Romney supporters: > > [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY0M7IdNl7U&feature=share](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY0M7IdNl7U&feature=share) If Romney wins those fools deserve every ounce of misery his policies will bring people like them. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/125 "2012-11-03T03:58:31Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > The only way Obama could be toasted is if the uninformed voter outnumbers the thoughtful one. See what happens when a simple follow up question stymies these Romney supporters: > > [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY0M7IdNl7U&feature=share](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY0M7IdNl7U&feature=share) Supporter to Adlai Stevenson: Governor Stevenson, all thinking people are for you! Stevenson, in response: That’s wonderful, madam, but I need a majority! ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 5:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/126 "2012-11-03T05:43:21Z")
> [@yorick73](#): > > That’s absolutely true. But, it does not explain why Romney is there. The most valuable commodity a candidate has is his time. Romney must feel that he can win there if he is spending time there. Obama must feel the same way since they are almost matching Romney in ad dollars. Even the [New York Times](http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/us/politics/in-shift-romney-campaign-makes-push-in-pennsylvania.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=1&) reports that there is a tangible sense that the race is tilting toward Romney. The current polling average in Pennsylvania is 4.6 on RCP. The polling average since Oct 10th (post first debate) is 4.75. There has been no movement towards Romney in the past month and to think that he’s going to flip the state five points in a couple days over the weekend is ludicrous. I don’t blame (or read much into) Obama putting up ads in response. However slim the chance, why risk it? The election is over in a couple days so you may as well spend the money now. But the prism of a campaign spending money defending a state where they lead by five is a lot different than a campaign suddenly trying to make a play for a state in which they’re down by five. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 6:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/127 "2012-11-03T06:06:21Z")
Late in the 2000 campaign, Karl Rove poured resources into California, under the theory that undecided voters plonk for the candidate who seems to be winning. Thus, all the nonsense about Momentum and the like. That was expensive and dubious. I think Romney is applying the same strategy in a more sensible way. IIRC, the big PA event was conducted on the border of Ohio. Going into PA projects confidence, which props up your base. And without an energized base, Romney isn’t going anywhere. Also when you are losing, prudent hail marys like a PA effort make sense, especially if they are conducted in a low cost media market with spillovers on to your main target. It could have been much worse. If the Republicans didn’t block the jobs act a year ago, Obama would have Indiana and North Carolina secured and would be making inroads into other red areas. As it is, both sides have fought a 7 state campaign. ---
**Author:** ![Face\_Intentionally\_Left\_Blank](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/face_intentionally_left_blank/32/288_2.png) [@Face\_Intentionally\_Left\_Blank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Face_Intentionally_Left_Blank)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 6:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/128 "2012-11-03T06:06:33Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > The only way Obama could be toasted is if the uninformed voter outnumbers the thoughtful one. See what happens when a simple follow up question stymies these Romney supporters: > > [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY0M7IdNl7U&feature=share](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY0M7IdNl7U&feature=share) Oh my. Wow. . .just wow. That’s just sad is what it is, watching people so confident and supportive, seemingly without a single reason to justify their stance. And to head off the, “No U” crowd, I’ve seen in on the other end of the spectrum and it’s just as sad. There’s just a country full of stupid here, and I don’t think there’s a cure of it. I see why the lying works so well. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/129 "2012-11-03T14:07:27Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > The only way Obama could be toasted is if the uninformed voter outnumbers the thoughtful one. See what happens when a simple follow up question stymies these Romney supporters: > > [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY0M7IdNl7U&feature=share](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY0M7IdNl7U&feature=share) God that was painful, watching those voters try to explain why they were voting for Mitt Romney without actually saying, “because Obama is a N\*\*\*\*\*”. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/130 "2012-11-03T14:33:25Z")
> [@Frostillicus](#): > > God that was painful, watching those voters try to explain why they were voting for Mitt Romney without actually saying, “because Obama is a N\*\*\*\*\*”. Do you suppose “Obama is toast” is a polite way of referring to the darkness of his skin? “I prefer my President untoasted, just pure white-bread, plain-vanilla sort of thing. It’s just my own personal taste, untoasted.” ---
**Author:** ![Belowjob2.0](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Belowjob2.0](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Belowjob2.0)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/131 "2012-11-03T16:21:08Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > Do you suppose “Obama is toast” is a polite way of referring to the darkness of his skin? “I prefer my President untoasted, just pure white-bread, plain-vanilla sort of thing. It’s just my own personal taste, untoasted.” Nah. Black Americans usually have a much more colorful vocabulary about skin tone. Someone might say, “I believe this shiny half-Negro is done!” “Toast” is much too, pardon the pun, whitebread. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/132 "2012-11-03T17:57:24Z")
Well, how can you win if you’ve lost [Joe Biden](http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OPdTSnmzdb4)? Love that guy. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/133 "2012-11-03T19:25:07Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Well, how can you win if you’ve lost [Joe Biden](http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OPdTSnmzdb4)? > > Love that guy. I’m happier with the things Joe Biden says by accident than I am with anything almost any Republican has said in earnest in the last 12 or 16 years… ---
**Author:** ![MsWhatsit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/eb8c5e/32.png) [@MsWhatsit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsWhatsit)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/134 "2012-11-03T19:34:15Z")
I do love Joe Biden, in a non-sarcastic and un-ironic way. He seems to be one of the few politicians willing to say anything at all unfiltered. Yeah, sometimes he trips over his own words, but at least you get the sense that what he’s saying is what he actually means, and hasn’t been processed through the “polish this and tune it to the specific audience I’m talking to” filter. I think Joe Biden coming out early (no pun intended) on gay rights support pushed Obama into also publicly supporting gay marriage, earlier than he otherwise might have. I consider that a good thing. ---
**Author:** ![Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/son_of_a_rich/32/5439_2.png) [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Son_of_a_Rich)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/135 "2012-11-03T20:50:16Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > The only way Obama could be toasted is if the uninformed voter outnumbers the thoughtful one. See what happens when a simple follow up question stymies these Romney supporters: > > [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY0M7IdNl7U&feature=share](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nY0M7IdNl7U&feature=share) What an embarrassing bunch- the one guy is worried about Buddhists 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Feyrat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/fbc32d/32.png) [@Feyrat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Feyrat)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/136 "2012-11-03T21:11:41Z")
I love Joe. He’s like our own personal Prince Phillip. He opens his mouth and just STUFF falls out. And yeah, worrying about the Buddhists (“You know they’re there!”) coming and imposing their religion on us… um… ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/137 "2012-11-03T21:29:59Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > The only way Obama could be toasted is if the uninformed voter outnumbers the thoughtful one. Or the [undecided voters](http://www.hulu.com/watch/404175?playlist_id=1192). ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2012, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/138 "2012-11-03T21:47:55Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Well, how can you win if you’ve lost [Joe Biden](http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OPdTSnmzdb4)? > > Love that guy. The Onion’s Joe Biden serie has, over the last four years, been some of the most consistent laughs you’ll find anywhere. ---
**Author:** ![gamerunknown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6bbea6/32.png) [@gamerunknown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gamerunknown)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2012, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/139 "2012-11-04T19:54:41Z")
> [@Feyrat](#): > > I love Joe. He’s like our own personal Prince Phillip. He opens his mouth and just STUFF falls out. > > And yeah, worrying about the Buddhists (“You know they’re there!”) coming and imposing their religion on us… um… [Maybe he was a plant](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dtMpjeAMtk)? ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/140 "2012-11-06T02:04:34Z")
“Playing it safe, I end up with Romney taking just one of those four – Wisconsin – and a narrow electoral college win, 271-267” Okey-dokey! Silver has Wisconsin 94.5% likely for Obama. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981.md?page=8)