# "Why I Think Obama Is Toast" **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 26, 2012, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981 "2012-10-26T22:48:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/141 "2012-11-06T02:10:55Z")
On 10/26 "It’s hard to make sense of why so many pollsters are showing this as a tight race under these circumstances, with independents consistently breaking heavily to Romney and all the indicators of turnout suggesting at least a much smaller Democratic advantage than 2008 and – if you believe Gallup’s and Rasmussen’s surveys – a Republican wave unlike any we’ve seen in a presidential election in our lifetimes. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/142 "2012-11-06T03:50:42Z")
> [@Feyrat](#): > > And yeah, worrying about the Buddhists (“You know they’re there!”) coming and imposing their religion on us… um… Surely you mean “imposing their religion on us… om…” ---
**Author:** ![AClockworkMelon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aclockworkmelon/32/10803_2.png) [@AClockworkMelon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AClockworkMelon)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/143 "2012-11-07T05:09:02Z")
Lul. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/144 "2012-11-07T05:15:36Z")
How could the polls have been so wrong? They grossly oversampled Democrats again and again - how could that have been? Why didn’t we see that Republican registrations were up, and Democratic registrations were down, and that early voting wasn’t going as enthusiastically for Obama as they did in 2008? Nate Silver’s an idiot. There. I said it. Total idiot. I’ll never listen to polls again. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Bird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/3ec8ea/32.png) [@Little\_Bird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Bird)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/145 "2012-11-07T05:17:43Z")
lol lol lol lol lol ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/146 "2012-11-07T05:19:13Z")
More seriously, it is almost uncanny how close things are coming out to what Nate Silver was showing. It’s almost like we don’t need to actually hold the election! ---
**Author:** ![user\_hostile](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/user_hostile/32/474_2.png) [@user\_hostile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/user_hostile)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/147 "2012-11-07T05:25:59Z")
Looks like the toaster broke. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 6:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/148 "2012-11-07T06:33:06Z")
> [@jshore](#): > > More seriously, it is almost uncanny how close things are coming out to what Nate Silver was showing. It’s almost like we don’t need to actually hold the election! To be fair, Silver’s accuracy is entirely reliant on pollsters in aggregate having good sampling practices - or at least having bad sampling practices in extremely predicable ways. ---
**Author:** ![ladyfoxfyre](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ad7895/32.png) [@ladyfoxfyre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ladyfoxfyre)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 6:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/149 "2012-11-07T06:34:52Z")
On Fox news, the conversation was as follows: Megyn Kelly: “I mean, how could this have happened? All the states we thought would go to Romney, they didn’t. How could that happen?” Other guy: “Yeah, I mean it was weird, it turned out that the polls were more right than wrong.” Turns out you can’t wish away statistics after all. Huh. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/150 "2012-11-07T06:49:07Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > To be fair, Silver’s accuracy is entirely reliant on pollsters in aggregate having good sampling practices - or at least having bad sampling practices in extremely predicable ways. Yep. What pisses me off is folks like **OMG** dismissing Nate Silver as “our Messiah” or somesuch. He’s a number cruncher. He doesn’t give a shit who wins, he wants to be right. In 2010, he was calling races for Pubbies left and right. I didn’t see Dems complaining. Yet, when the polls and statistical model goes against them, the right seems to launch into full-on attack mode against rational discourse. At no point did Nate Silver say it was a sure thing. His process has been transparent, and he’s said, straight-up, that he will and should be wrong at some point, statistically speaking. If anything, it seems to me like his confidence intervals are conservative, but we only have a handful of races to judge that on. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 7:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/151 "2012-11-07T07:22:53Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Over at Redstate, [Dan McLaughlin](http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/26/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/) has put together an argument as to why he thinks Romney is a very good shot to be the 45th president of the U.S.; it’s worth a read. > > In case you can’t be bothered reading, the central argument is that Obama is going to lose the Independent vote, quite possibly by double digits. The only hope he has to win, therefore, is to either “steal” some R votes from Romney or get a significant number of Democrats to show up. > > The first, McLaughlin argues, is unlikely as Republicans generally get more crossover votes than Dems get (that helps to somewhat offset that Democrats generally enjoy a lead among voter registration). The second, he argues, is also unlikely to happen simply because the electorate is going to look far Republican than it did in 2008, due in part to increased Republican registration and Republicans not staying home as they did in 2008 ([I’ve made similar assertions on this board](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=15606497&postcount=63)). To make the latter point he has posted two graphs-- one for Rasmussen and one for Gallup-- which compare how each predicted party ID to be for 2004 and 2008 presidential elections versus actual exit numbers. In both cases, they were fairly accurate, with Rasmussen being a bit more accurate than Gallup. Both currently show Republicans with the edge going into the final week of the race, with Rasmussen at about R+3 and Gallup R+1. > > (He also posts a graph for Rasmussen which show it to be less accurate in off year elections, due primarily to understating R’s.) > > Summarized, assuming it true that the electorate is more R than D this year (or even slightly D), without a high Democratic turnout to offset Republicans showing up and Obama losing Independents by a wide margin, Obama has a tough road to reelection. > > Discuss. > > (And, yes, it does play into the whole “oversampling Democrats” that the left likes to dismiss.) Hmmph. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/152 "2012-11-07T07:24:45Z")
Omg a Black Conservative, You were totally fucking wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 7:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/153 "2012-11-07T07:27:32Z")
Woot. ---
**Author:** ![DianaG](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/7ab992/32.png) [@DianaG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DianaG)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 7:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/154 "2012-11-07T07:32:17Z")
Mwahaaaaaaaaaaahaaaaaaaaaaaa!!! (am I allowed in this thread to wish OMG some Preparation H for his butthurt?) ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 7:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/155 "2012-11-07T07:41:52Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > Omg a Black Conservative, > > You were totally fucking wrong. And now that the election is over, I don’t see the point anymore in clinging to the Romney campaign mythology that Obama is single-handedly destroying the economy. Nor even the childish expectation that somehow he or anyone else could have single-handedly completely cleaned up the colossal and ingrained financial dysfunction that existed in late 2008. The fact is that the economy has in fact improved just enough, for just enough people, that Obama got enough votes to be re-elected. Now is not the time for pouting because your mythology didn’t succeed in fooling the people. Now is the time to keep the improvement moving forward, and recognize the reality that the situation was so screwed up that it’s not going to magically and instantly get better overnight, no matter who is president. ---
**Author:** ![user\_hostile](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/user_hostile/32/474_2.png) [@user\_hostile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/user_hostile)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 7:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/156 "2012-11-07T07:46:13Z")
Rommey defeats Truman ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 7:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/157 "2012-11-07T07:52:45Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > To be fair, Silver’s accuracy is entirely reliant on pollsters in aggregate having good sampling practices - or at least having bad sampling practices in extremely predicable ways. But doesn’t Nate’s model also evaluate the pollsters on a) Their methodology b) Their historical accuracy? Isn’t he making a fairly explicit judgement call on which polls to trust and which not, rather than only crunching numbers? ---
**Author:** ![gamerunknown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6bbea6/32.png) [@gamerunknown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gamerunknown)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 8:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/158 "2012-11-07T08:05:01Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > He doesn’t give a shit who wins, he wants to be right. In 2010, he was calling races for Pubbies left and right. This is false. Nate Silver is a known homosexual and thus will do anything in his power to hamper patriotic Americans from voting for a candidate not in thrall to the homosexual agenda, probably in concert with [Chris Hughes](http://americansfortruth.com/2012/06/28/facebook-founder-christ-hughes-donates-100000-to-pro-homosexual-marriage-forces-in-maine/). Besides, OMG was largely right: Romney did win the independents by [large margins](http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83435.html). Either turnout was much higher than expected among democrats or there were improprieties at the polls. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 8:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/159 "2012-11-07T08:13:11Z")
> [@gamerunknown](#): > > Either turnout was much higher than expected among democrats or there were improprieties at the polls. Polls were right. Conservative pundits were wrong. End of story. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 8:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/160 "2012-11-07T08:15:08Z")
> [@gamerunknown](#): > > This is false. Nate Silver is a known homosexual and thus will do anything in his power to hamper patriotic Americans from voting for a candidate not in thrall to the homosexual agenda, probably in concert with [Chris Hughes](http://americansfortruth.com/2012/06/28/facebook-founder-christ-hughes-donates-100000-to-pro-homosexual-marriage-forces-in-maine/). I… This is parody, isn’t it? God, that Poe’s Law thing really IS true… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981.md?page=9)