# "Why I Think Obama Is Toast" **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 26, 2012, 10:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981 "2012-10-26T22:48:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 8:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/161 "2012-11-07T08:49:10Z")
> [@bengangmo](#): > > Isn’t he making a fairly explicit judgement call on which polls to trust and which not, rather than only crunching numbers? Technically, I suppose that’s true, but it’s a judgment that’s based on quantitative measures. Kind of like judging the accuracy of hurricane tracking programs. Sure, there’s a bit of leeway in judgment in comparing historical accuracy and methodology, but that’s a minor point compared to the complete failure of judging based on instinct or “momentum” or anything that isn’t based on real numbers. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/162 "2012-11-07T14:49:55Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > Omg a Black Conservative, > > You were totally fucking wrong. No, he was 100% right in not being willing to bet on the outcome, not a nickel, not a sig line, not a cyber-dollar. He stuck to that position, and we all know why he refused to bet anything on the outcome. If you took this thread seriously, or pretty much anything **OMG ABC** had to say about the election, you got played. ---
**Author:** ![AClockworkMelon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aclockworkmelon/32/10803_2.png) [@AClockworkMelon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AClockworkMelon)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/163 "2012-11-07T15:03:09Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > No, he was 100% right in not being willing to bet on the outcome, not a nickel, not a sig line, not a cyber-dollar. He stuck to that position, and we all know why he refused to bet anything on the outcome. > > If you took this thread seriously, or pretty much anything **OMG ABC** had to say about the election, you got played. Ugh. I forgot about you. Now I wish Obama’d lost. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Bird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/3ec8ea/32.png) [@Little\_Bird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Bird)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/164 "2012-11-07T15:11:56Z")
> [@gamerunknown](#): > > This is false. Nate Silver is a known homosexual and thus will do anything in his power to hamper patriotic Americans from voting for a candidate not in thrall to the homosexual agenda, probably in concert with [Chris Hughes](http://americansfortruth.com/2012/06/28/facebook-founder-christ-hughes-donates-100000-to-pro-homosexual-marriage-forces-in-maine/). > > Besides, OMG was largely right: Romney did win the independents by [large margins](http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83435.html). Either turnout was much higher than expected among democrats or there were improprieties at the polls. We get it. You hate gay people. You can stop now. Please crawl back under your rock. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/165 "2012-11-07T15:17:18Z")
I’d love for OMG to return to this thread with an analysis of how he could get suckered by such poor sources, and swear off “Dan” when we start over about 3 yrs from today. It would be totally awesome (won’t happen) if he could critically re-examine some of the other misinformation his side has been feeding him, but alas, I fear it is not to be so. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/166 "2012-11-07T15:47:27Z")
I’d just like an acknowledgement that trying to bend facts and reality to better suit your ideology is not a winning strategy. There are people who really know what they’re talking about. It’s worth it to figure this out and pay attention to them. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/167 "2012-11-07T15:54:32Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > Y Yet, when the polls and statistical model goes against them, the right seems to launch into full-on attack mode against rational discourse. And they don’t only do this with polls. For many topics with a clear, rational scientific and statistical basis, they simply ignore them and go into attack mode. Perhaps some of them will now wake up and realize that it’s better to face reality and facts rather than to pretend that if they wish really really hard, their preferred reality will magically occur. ha ha ha ha ha ha! Or not. ---
**Author:** ![Kevbo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e47774/32.png) [@Kevbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kevbo)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/168 "2012-11-07T16:13:37Z")
I am really, really tempted to make a sock with the user name **Nelson Muntz** , just so I can post hah-hah! in this thread…but it is not quite worth getting banned for. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/169 "2012-11-07T16:19:47Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > Polls were right. Conservative pundits were wrong. End of story. With luck, this humiliation of the “I reject your reality and substitute my own!” crowd will tilt the public discourse back in the direction of being reality-based. Yeah, and while I’m wishing I’d like a flying car… ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/170 "2012-11-07T16:24:20Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > I’d just like an acknowledgement that trying to bend facts and reality to better suit your ideology is not a winning strategy. I am reminded of a joke about Hitler’s final day in the bunker. The commander of what remained of the army reported that he had a dozen troops: five teenagers, three old men, and four walking wounded. The commander of what remained of the navy reported that he had two rowboats and a motorboat with one liter of petrol on the River Spree. The commander of what remained of the air force reported that he had a WWI biplane from the Berlin Museum and a technican trying to get the motor running. Hitler took in these reports and sat a while in thought. Finally, he stood up and shouted, “NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!!” ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/171 "2012-11-07T16:25:14Z")
I place bets on whether OMG A Black Conservative comes back to this thread or failing that, admits to being wrong. ‘clasps hands in glee’ ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/172 "2012-11-07T16:29:39Z")
Has admitted to being wrong in another thread here in the Elections forum, not sure which one (so much proliferation the past day or so). ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/173 "2012-11-07T16:31:27Z")
Yup. I was wrong. Not sure why you guys think this bothers me, since I’ve already done so once before. I’m a big enough man to admit it. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/174 "2012-11-07T16:31:48Z")
> [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](#): > > If you took this thread seriously, or pretty much anything **OMG ABC** had to say about the election, you got played. > [@AClockworkMelon](#): > > Ugh. I forgot about you. Knock it off. You can post like this in the Pit, but not in Elections. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/175 "2012-11-07T16:34:09Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Yup. I was wrong. Not sure why you guys think this bothers me, since I’ve already done so once before. I’m a big enough man to admit it. Would you stick around long enough to do a post-mortem on your error? ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/176 "2012-11-07T16:38:21Z")
Sorta kinda did. ---
**Author:** ![DMark](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@DMark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMark)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/177 "2012-11-07T16:49:38Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Yup. I was wrong. Not sure why you guys think this bothers me, since I’ve already done so once before. I’m a big enough man to admit it. And as thrilled I am that Obama won, I still get the heebie-jeebies when thinking of the dark Dubya era. For that reason, as I had mentioned to you in a different thread, I take no delight in gloating to you and fully understand how you feel today. I admire you standing up on the SDMB for what you truly believed and hoped for, and though I pretty strongly disagree with all of your political beliefs, I sincerely hope you will stick around and continue to be the voice for your team. It is no fun here to preach to the choir - and if there is anybody who is not in our choir, you would be towards the top of the list. So please hang around and continue to post! Might not agree with you, but you at least get the conversations going! ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/178 "2012-11-07T16:57:51Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Sorta kinda did. Compared to the multiple paragraphs and bullet-points you spewed in your reality-denying screeds, your “post-mortem” on how and why you were _so very wrong_ is pretty damn pathetic. “Sorta kina.” HAH. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/179 "2012-11-07T17:02:10Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Sorta kinda did. Time to leave the red team my good man. If you’re the last one to leave, please turn out the lights. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981/180 "2012-11-07T17:12:35Z")
Might want to consider your mean-spirited, taunting tone while you’re telling yourself what a big man you are. Just a suggestion. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/638981.md?page=10)