Is it, still, after all these decades of the people being taught a completely different ideology?
Confucianism was the shaper of society for over two thousand years, a couple of decades of Marxism is not going to replace it.
Most large developed countries have about 75% of the GDP per capita of the US. I think China will keep growing til they reach this level and then level off. That level is by historical standards astonishingly rich and the people will be very well off even by current western standards.
The number of people in China living on less than $1.25 a day had decreased by 660 million from 1980 to 2010. That is 10% of the entire population of the planet. That is probably the largest reduction in poverty in the history of the world. That is why the economy of China is a boon to mankind.
Gotcha. Thanks for clarifying.
Meh. Chinese exceptionalism is no more accurate than American exceptionalism, and the Chinese are just as capable of being lazy and corrupt as anyone else is.
But with so many people in general, you are bound to end up with a lot of high achievers. And being in competition with a billion people for what are still scarce opportunities does tend to light a fire under your ass.
How is China handling this transition WRT it’s food supply? I have read a few stories about farmland and villages being swept away by urban progress. If all those people predicted to move to urban centers in the coming years transpires, will there be enough farmers to provide food, or might China need to import? It’s not like their version of growing rice is the equivalent of modern, industrial rice farming in the US. Perhaps their farming infrastruture will keep pace with progress elsewhere - hopefully they will not make some of the same environmental mistakes we made.
A big part of the reason is that they were able to get away with economic and political policies that, in other countries, invited the malicious attention of local moneyed elites, major powers, and other reactionaries.
Only Nixon could go to China. Nobody could red-bait a lot of the regimes in East Asia when they did things that violated the sacred neoliberal “free market.” That, and some of them were just too geopolitically useful to mess with.
South Korea’s economy grew rapidly just like China, they averaged about 10% a year for decades straight (although Chinas has far fewer pits and downturns). But their economic growth slowed when their per capita GDP hit about $15,000 in USD. They are currently at about 24k per capita. Taiwan is ‘roughly’ the same, per capita GDP is now at about 20k and growing at fairly normal OECD rates.
So I personally don’t know where China will end up, but wealthy countries are all over the board, their per capita GDP varies from 20-50k. China may drop to 3% growth rates when their per capita GDP hits about 15-20k which should happen in 15~ years or so. That will still give them an economy of about 25 trillion (if 20k per capita). But it won’t make China far and away the world’s superpower.
I think one factor is their late introduction to technology, which spared them having to reinvent the wheel. As Japan did during the Meiji era, Chinese students flocked abroad to western universities (“MIT; where the nerd world meets the third world”) and companies, where they learned ( and sometime stole) the latest in a variety of technologies, which they then brought back home.
The point is that China has traditionally been very good at figuring out how to dominate according to the rules of the age. They are returning to type.
It’s irrelevant to OP’s question, but here’s a graphic look at China’s progress over the last 200 years (alternate URL), compared with Japan and U.K. Don’t forget to push Play.
Nifty website!
Sort of. There used to be a phenomenon in Hong Kong and Taiwan where they would not hire workers from mainland China until they had been in the country for six months, and had gotten used to working at a much higher level than in Red China. China is the only country in the world with the right to naptime written into their constitution.
Regards,
Shodan
One thing not mentioned-the willingness of the Western World to allow China access to their markets. This has resulted in the death of the American textile, shoe, consumer electronics industries, and will soon result in the death of the automotive industry. While China accumulated vast currency reserves, the USA now has to borrow to finance its imports. Ideal situation for China, not so good for the USA.
Actually not enough people are moving to the cities now, and the government is strongly encouraging, perhaps forcing, people to do so to keep up the supply of cheap labor.
Capable of? How about are. look at all the corruption trials now going on, and that is only the ones the government is forced to admit, or who get charged because of politics.
The new leadership seems to have begun a major anti-democracy campaign, worried about what happened in the Soviet Union.
Yes there are plenty of smart people there. But some are leaving. (I hired one a few months ago.) Sustained creativity requires a level of freedom of thought which isn’t found there yet.
The structure of the political system itself hasn’t actually changed much since the bad old days. The economic system has changed dramatically, but the understanding is always that this is because economic growth ultimately serves the Party and China on the whole, not any particular idealogical believe in liberalization or the free market. Furthermore, the Party has tight control of security, but they are very aware that they have a lot of people to please who wouldn’t hesitate to throw them under they bus. They answer to regions and major cities, business, the military, nationalists, and the people on the whole. It involves throwing a lot of people a lot bones just to keep from being overthrown.
There is plenty of free thought in China, as long as you keep it out of the public realm. People speak fairly freely in conversation, and the press can be surprisingly critical, as long as they focus locally and do not get to the point where they seem to be questioning the Party’s right to rule. Public speech is much more tampered down, as is organizing into any kind of potentially threatening group. But people are pretty comfortable talking about whatever in casual situations, and it’s rarely particularly flattering to the Party.
One thing that China does largely agree on is that the West does not have the one and only secret to prosperity. China will do things it’s own way, according to it’s own needs. They are not impressed with claims that “blah blah blah always leads to democracy” or “blah blah blah requires decentralization.” As far as they are concerned, they’ve done a hell of a job changing a society from basically an impoverished third world country to an industrialized superpower in a short time, and maybe we might want to try listening to them rather than telling them they are doing it wrong.
I’d disagree with this. I think people demand a Gov’t that listens and responds. A democratic Gov’t is that, but it’s not the only way. The Chinese Govt understands what it is and also does not want to lose power. So it, probably more than any Govt in the world, ever, listens to its populace (“legally” or otherwise). It can then respond, accordingly.
So if there’s a protest for instance, and the Govt acts in some form after the protest, then I don’t think the population cares whether the politician was elected or not. He listened and responded.
As long as they give the impression of really fighting rampant corruption, I’d give the Govt a chance of making it.
Well I think the answer to all 3 paragraphs is that it’s only that way because China can get away with it.
As many expats as Voyager hires, there will be 10,000 just as smart - perhaps slightly less smart but still geniuses for all practical purposes that stays in China. The brain drain is merely a trickle, if that.
There is so much competition from grade school onward to PhD that there is no shortage of brains. What’s more is that none of those PhD’s make it to party leadership. The managerial positions still operate very much corrupt and a crony system. It’s a paradoxical sight to see so much merit-based rewards in academia translate to little/no merit-based rewards in the political world. But hey, they make the rules and as long as the economy is humming along nobody is complaining too much. The rhetoric of change, and ending corruption rings about as hollow as when Americans bluster on about their 10-point plan of how to clean up Washington. We’re just lucky that enough idealists work their way to positions of power to push through change from time to time. China doesn’t have the political system for that luck.
Party leadership is only slacking the rope economically to placate the masses while the political issues keep a very select lucky few with almost unfathomable power. It’s just an ultra successful version of Russia.
The problem is- Communism = rampant corruption. Always has and always will. It creates it, fosters it, and only ‘works’ for a while because of it. Communism was introduced as an economic/political system a little over a century ago and it has been a complete, unmitigated, miserable failure everywhere it’s been tried. Today Cuba & the DPRK are still third world shit holes filled with massive corruption because of it.
When push comes to shove the old guard in China isn’t going to let go of power without a fight. And if govt officials aren’t true representatives of the people (i.e. elected in a democratic republic of some kind) there are little to no consequences for them when they choose not to listen to the people whenever it doesn’t suit them. IOW you can’t have it both ways. As stated above capitalism & communism are inherently incompatible and eventually only one can truly prevail.