# Why is Iran launching this attack on Israel **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [April 13, 2024, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251 "2024-04-13T22:40:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251/41 "2024-04-14T16:39:55Z")
> **[The Media Landscape in Iran](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/media-landscape-iran)** > > The crisis following Iran’s presidential vote cast a new light on the country’s hotly contested media space. A crackdown has limited independent reporting but other sources remain as channels for dis… TL;DR: the theocratic government of Iran has cracked down on ‘liberal’ media substantially, but there is a lot of factionalization and variable control over media, and even conservative outlets are sometimes highly critical of the current government. There is also a strong social media presence in Iran (especially among younger people across the political spectrum) and trying to pass off this attack as a success for Iran is going to quickly be seen as a sham. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251/42 "2024-04-14T16:45:42Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Indeed, on May 8, 2018. By Trump. > > Just another example of Trump screwing things up, and leaving the mess for others. I was trying to avoid the US politics aspect, but yes, it was done by Trump (describing the framework as “…defective at its core”) and applied “the highest level of economic sanctions” despite the clear evidence that sanctions are ineffective at controlling nuclear proliferation. This was widely regarded as a massive blow to the “non-proliferation regime” and there is basically no way to unmake that particular omelet now. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251/43 "2024-04-14T17:38:57Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > Whether nuclear weapons are launched in praise of Allah or in praise of Yahweh, the results are equally frightening and catastrophic. I will proceed to quote Bob Dylan: “If God’s on our side, he’ll stop the next war.” There appears to unfortunately be no evidence, despite lots of claims, that there’s any god on anybody’s side on this mess. Though Eris might be on everybody’s. > [@BigT](#): > > I simply pointed out that Israel attacked Iran first No, they didn’t. Iran attacked Israel first. They just did so from within other countries. > [@BigT](#): > > it doesn’t make sense to assume that this one action means Iran is now currently on their plan to destroy Israel. We’re not doing that. People (other than apparently you) aren’t isolating that one action; we’re looking at a pattern. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251/44 "2024-04-14T17:40:32Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Iran attacking Israel makes sense. They doing it in a way that they had to have known would be totally ineffective, however, does not, no matter how you turn it. It’s always in retrospect, when someone fails, that people say that they had to have known it wouldn’t work. Personally, I’m not sure they did know. Israel’s anti-ballistic missile systems had never been tested in battle before, not least against such a large number of targets, and fighter jets have never taken on swarms of drones and cruise missiles. I think nobody on either side could have known what would happen. I think the Iranians genuinely thought they would do some damage. I think you and I look at Iran in fundamentally different ways. To an American, Iran is just another third-world country; to Israel, Iran is a near-peer. It’s our Russia. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251/45 "2024-04-14T17:57:05Z")
I agree – if Iran had wanted to “fail” (i.e. they wanted to send a militarily insignificant message), they wouldn’t have wasted literally hundreds of expensive weapons. It would have been much, much smaller. They just wasted tens of millions of dollars in military equipment. Maybe more. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251/46 "2024-04-14T18:00:42Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Iran attacking Israel makes sense. They doing it in a way that they had to have known would be totally ineffective, however, does not, no matter how you I’m less sure. The move Iran wanted ideally is something that looks big and tough to the various players but isn’t in reality big enough to provoke an escalation response. They want Israel to have space to respond smaller than bigger because it in fact was more a bluster than a real hit. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251/47 "2024-04-14T18:00:59Z")
I’m not sure if this has been discussed yet, but IMO a huge ramification of this attack is MASSIVELY strengthening Biden’s bargaining power with the Israeli government – the US and allies just (likely) saved hundreds or thousands of Israeli lives. If the Israeli government won’t bend more to how the US wants them to handle things going forward, Biden could threaten to withdraw that protection – he could even hint at it publicly. What if Iran knew that next time, the US wouldn’t get involved? ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251/48 "2024-04-14T18:01:45Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > Not unless we pretend Iran sends military officials to failed states on diplomatic missions. To be fair, Iran has long backed and propped up the Syrian Arab Republic in the civil war happening there and have provided weapons and troop training to them (mainly via Hezbollah I think). ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251/49 "2024-04-14T18:07:35Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I agree – if Iran had wanted to “fail” (i.e. they wanted to send a militarily insignificant message), they wouldn’t have wasted literally hundreds of expensive weapons. It would have been much, much smaller. They just wasted tens of millions of dollars in military equipment. Maybe more. They wanted to send a significant message. Message sent. They have lots of bombs, especially lots of bombs placed in Lebanon, and you won’t stop them all every time. Even the idiot Bibi knows to play the response with great consideration. Same thought process: something that looks strong but is actually a step away from escalation. Miscalculation and spiraling into major damage on both sides is all too easy to happen. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251/50 "2024-04-14T18:11:14Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > But AFAIK there’s no definitive evidence that they actually have nukes right now. They certainly **want** to have nukes, and do have an advanced uranium enrichment program, but they’re apparently not there yet. Iran has been supplying Russia with missiles. Russia has oil and nukes. What does Russia have that Iran wants? Iran doesn’t need Russia’s oil. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251/51 "2024-04-14T18:14:04Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > Iran is retaliating because Israel attacked bombed their embassy and killed one of their generals. This was guaranteed to happen as soon as they did that. Correction, it as a “consulate annex” (whatever that is). Had they hit the embassy, the ambassador and his family would’ve been dead, but they were completely unharmed. Moreover, given that nobody disputes high-ranking Iranian military officers were present, said to be meeting with Palestinian Islamic Jihad, this “consulate annex” lost any privileged noncombatant claims. We have to be clear Iran was retaliating against Israel’s strike here. It didn’t come out of the blue. But if the facts I described above are accurate, then the target was military in nature, and Israel was within rights to strike it. (I say this as someone who leans skeptical toward most everything Israel says, but Iran doesn’t exactly inspire credibility either). ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251/52 "2024-04-14T18:14:25Z")
> [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#): > > What does Russia have that Iran wants? Opposing the US. Enemy of my enemy thing. Also, maybe fighter jets? (guessing) ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251/53 "2024-04-14T18:20:22Z")
> [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#): > > Iran has been supplying Russia with missiles. Russia has oil and nukes. What does Russia have that Iran wants? Iran doesn’t need Russia’s oil. It’s true that Iran wants nukes, has been trying to get them, and Russia could be a big help to them. But Iran hasn’t declared itself a nuclear power, hasn’t implied it’s a nuclear power, and isn’t known to have conducted any nuclear tests. From sources I’ve read, Iran has been within a year of the “nuclear breakout” phase for the past 4 years. So God only knows what sort of surprise they’re actually sitting on. If ones goes in for speculation, one hypothetical could be that Iran has a device ready to test, but are waiting for suitable political cover to do it. Such as, Israel conducts a significant strike directly on Iran. Then Iran conducts their nuclear test as a warning. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251/54 "2024-04-14T18:26:21Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > From sources I’ve read, Iran has been within a year of the “nuclear breakout” phase for the past 4 years. Maybe the Stuxnet virus set back the Iranian nuclear program more than we thought. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251/55 "2024-04-14T19:02:19Z")
I’ve been down on the economist in recent months, but this was a good analysis. Basically, a big miscalculation from Iran. > **[Iran and Israel’s shadow war explodes into the open](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/04/14/iran-and-israels-shadow-war-explodes-into-the-open)** > > But the Islamic Republic may have miscalculated ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251/56 "2024-04-14T19:14:50Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > We can debate if Israel was justified in their initial attack. But you can’t ignore that Israel deliberately attacked Iran’s embassy. And it was entirely expected that Iran would attack back. It wasnt an embassy. Probably a consulate. Or perhaps a building next to a consulate. > [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#): > > Iran has been supplying Russia with missiles. Russia has oil and nukes. What does Russia have that Iran wants? Iran doesn’t need Russia’s oil. Nuke tech, money. Gold. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251/57 "2024-04-14T19:15:41Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > No sovereign nation would tolerate a hostile power sending high ranking generals to command and support terrorist groups in neighboring failed states in order to coordinate attacks against said sovereign nation, either. > > If Iran didn’t want their high ranking military officers killed, they shouldn’t have sent those officers into Syria to coordinate attacks on Israel. > > Let’s not pretend these guys were on a diplomatic mission to Syria. Right. Anyone who wants to understand the motivation of the strike in Syria should read up on Iran’s Qud Force. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251/58 "2024-04-14T19:21:54Z")
> [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#): > > Iran has been supplying Russia with missiles. Russia has oil and nukes. What does Russia have that Iran wants? Iran doesn’t need Russia’s oil. Putin’s crazy, but he’s not that crazy. Or at least, he’s not that kind of crazy. There’s no way that he’d share the ultimate power weapon with anyone, because he wants all the power for himself. And he has two other things that Iran wants. First, he’s been selling oil to China and India, both of whom are mostly not supplying him with weapons directly. What is he getting from them? Money. Which everyone, Iran included, likes. Second, even if Russia’s own conventional arsenal is severely depleted, they still have the expertise that produced that arsenal in the first place, and that’s worth a lot, too. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251/59 "2024-04-14T19:40:58Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > > [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > > > From sources I’ve read, Iran has been within a year of the “nuclear breakout” phase for the past 4 years. > > Maybe the Stuxnet virus set back the Iranian nuclear program more than we thought. I think it’s more like, they aren’t prepared for the consequences of becoming a rogue nuclear state quite yet, so they’re toeing the edge without crossing over the finish line. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2024, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251/60 "2024-04-14T20:29:00Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > The Israeli attack last week near the embassy was just another of these “routine” attacks, though this time the soldier who was killed was a high ranking general. The problem was not that a general was killed. The problem is that an embassy was bombed, which is an act of war and has been considered such for centuries pretty much everywhere. We know Israel and Iran are enemies, that’s not news. > [@chappachula](#): > > For the past half century, since the Ayatollahs took control of Iran, Iran has been declaring their intention to wipe Israel off the map. > They now have nukes. No, actually, Iran does not have nukes. They do have a _nuclear program_ but they do not (to the extent any civilian can know) have _bombs_ One enternal obstacle to depriving Iran of a nuclear industry is that they have significant natural reserves of uranium on their territory. It makes it difficult to prevent them from getting their hands on it. > [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > I’ve seen some Evangelical ‘news feeds’ celebrating this as heralding the Apocalypse because, you know, Evangelicals are nutbags, Yeah, you really have to wonder about whackos who _look forward_ to a war that will kill _billions_… > [@BigT](#): > > Iran has publicly stated they have no intention of any other attacks. So there is no reason whatsoever to jump to conclusions that Iran is trying to destroy Israel. You can’t think about countries as cartoon villains. Iran has publicly stated obliteration of Israel as a goal… but more of long-term one. That doesn’t mean they want to get into a shooting war with Israel _right now._ > [@Babale](#): > > If Iran didn’t want their high ranking military officers killed, they shouldn’t have sent those officers into Syria to coordinate attacks on Israel. > > Let’s not pretend these guys were on a diplomatic mission to Syria. They weren’t. But I doubt those generals were someone locked up in the basement of the embassy the whole time. Embassies are generally considered off limits for target assassinations. Then again, we’ve seen considerable evidence these past couple months that Israel doesn’t play by the rules and ignores international conventions about what is and isn’t an allowable target, so I suppose it’s consistent… > [@Alessan](#): > > Honest question: does the Vienna Convention (which protects embassies) apply when the states involved don’t have diplomatic relations, or, when, in fact, one of them does not recognize the other? That is an extremely good question. I, too, would like to know the answer. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-iran-launching-this-attack-on-israel/1000251.md?page=4)