# Why is it such a disaster if China passes the US to become the leading industrial nation? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [May 11, 2011, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579 "2011-05-11T23:02:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Ronald\_C.Semone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/cc9497/32.png) [@Ronald\_C.Semone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ronald_C.Semone)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2011, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579/1 "2011-05-11T23:02:12Z")
The media are full of stories about the likelihood that China will surpass the US and become the number one economy in the world. Supposedly this will happen in 5 to 10 years. Most of the US commentators act like this would be an unmitigated disaster. Why? Where is it written that the US has to be number one? Suppose we fall into the number two spot, how will that affect life in the US? As long as our economy is healthy, we have a decent (and then some) standard of living, and those people who want work can find it, why is our world ranking relevant? Life in countries like Sweden, Austria, New Zealand, etc. is pretty good and they are nowhere near the top of the economic ratings. Is this just a case of American hubris, where we have to be number one in everything? ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2011, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579/2 "2011-05-11T23:36:51Z")
Industrial power = Military power. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2011, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579/3 "2011-05-11T23:48:38Z")
> [@Ronald\_C.Semone](#): > > The media are full of stories about the likelihood that China will surpass the US and become the number one economy in the world. Supposedly this will happen in 5 to 10 years. Most of the US commentators act like this would be an unmitigated disaster. Why? Where is it written that the US has to be number one? Suppose we fall into the number two spot, how will that affect life in the US? As long as our economy is healthy, we have a decent (and then some) standard of living, and those people who want work can find it, why is our world ranking relevant? Life in countries like Sweden, Austria, New Zealand, etc. is pretty good and they are nowhere near the top of the economic ratings. Is this just a case of American hubris, where we have to be number one in everything? Certainly I would like that a representative democracy rather than a nationalist socialistic technocratic oligarchy is the most powerful country on Earth. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579/4 "2011-05-12T00:25:28Z")
> [@](#): > > the likelihood that China will surpass the US and become the number one economy in the world. It’s not likely, it’s a certainty. Just a matter of will it take less than a decade or more than a century. > [@](#): > > Suppose we fall into the number two spot, how will that affect life in the US? It’s the manner of the fall that matters. If the US navigates it’s current debt crisis, maintains it’s economic status quo or much better gets back on a sustainable growth path, whilst PRC grows progressively to ascendency, then you won’t see any need for significant change. If the US falls off a tipping point (and likely exporting a recession/depression to the world) then yes the US lifestyle will get a very severe haircut and PRC will dominate whatever landscape emerges from the ashes. But it’s the fall that will cause the damage, not the consequence. The long term issue is the historical correlation between economic power and military power. It wasn’t that long ago when you regularly heard preppie jingoists say that if PRC threatened the USA’s primacy “we’ll glass 'em”. Don’t hear that much now, fortunately. Hopefully that hubris is firmly back in the bottle. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579/5 "2011-05-12T00:39:12Z")
> [@](#): > > representative democracy rather than a nationalist socialistic technocratic oligarchy Do you have any grounds to believe a US model nationalist representative republic is capable of governing 1.3 billion? ---
**Author:** ![MichaelEmouse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/michaelemouse/32/101_2.png) [@MichaelEmouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MichaelEmouse)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579/6 "2011-05-12T00:39:53Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#): > > Do you have any grounds to believe a US model nationalist representative republic is capable of governing 1.3 billion? India? ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579/7 "2011-05-12T00:43:54Z")
> [@MichaelEmouse](#): > > India? Exactly, especially considering in many ways India is poorer and less developed than China, yet it can maintain a free government. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 1:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579/8 "2011-05-12T01:03:58Z")
> [@Ronald\_C.Semone](#): > > As long as our economy is healthy, we have a decent (and then some) standard of living, and those people who want work can find it, why is our world ranking relevant? If those things were still true, then losing our standing as the number one industrial nation wouldn’t be a big deal. But they are directly related to our standing as an industrial nation. Lots of Americans are unemployed or underemployed, the economy is weaker and the national debt is increasing. ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579/9 "2011-05-12T01:24:19Z")
It’s nothing more than the fact that fear sells newspapers, and people don’t know enough about china to know what they should or should not fear. China, by geography, has a limited reach. It is also a much more divided and unstable place than most people appreciate. Added to that, GDP aside, it is still very poor. There are segments of the country that barely maintain the living standard of Ghana. Commentators don’t mention this, because if they do have any China experience it is likely a well catered press tour to one of the handful of show cities. ---
**Author:** ![mac\_bolan00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b3f665/32.png) [@mac\_bolan00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mac_bolan00)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579/10 "2011-05-12T03:52:44Z")
america is divided from much of the world by two oceans (navies can bankrupt a nation.) china has the most borders with other countries, according to the guiness. ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579/11 "2011-05-12T04:09:06Z")
If you look at [China’s population distribution](http://www.grida.no/prog/global/cgiar/awpack/aspop.htm), you see that their population is extremely densely packed in a relatively small area. This is for a good reason- a lot of that land is very, very difficult to deal with. China has essentially be able to encompass its own buffer areas- but they are buffer areas none the less. It would be very hard for China to hold on to land that lies across the Gobi from their population centers. The US’s naval dominance is the precise reason why we have so much military influence. ---
**Author:** ![Rodgers01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b19c9b/32.png) [@Rodgers01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rodgers01)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579/12 "2011-05-12T04:09:55Z")
> [@Ronald\_C.Semone](#): > > The media are full of stories about the likelihood that China will surpass the US and become the number one economy in the world. Supposedly this will happen in 5 to 10 years. Most of the US commentators act like this would be an unmitigated disaster. Why? Where is it written that the US has to be number one? Suppose we fall into the number two spot, how will that affect life in the US? As long as our economy is healthy, we have a decent (and then some) standard of living, and those people who want work can find it, why is our world ranking relevant? Life in countries like Sweden, Austria, New Zealand, etc. is pretty good and they are nowhere near the top of the economic ratings. Is this just a case of American hubris, where we have to be number one in everything? That was my point of view until I spent a year in China and got - admittedly, however marginally - acquainted with the state of the country and its recent history. I don’t care if the US is #2 (or 3, or 10, or 20), but I’d _much_ rather not have China be #1 in the world. At least not with its current government. ---
**Author:** ![Anne\_Neville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Anne\_Neville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anne_Neville)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579/13 "2011-05-12T12:49:41Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Certainly I would like that a representative democracy rather than a nationalist socialistic technocratic oligarchy is the most powerful country on Earth. I find this a particularly ironic username/post combo. ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579/14 "2011-05-12T13:10:31Z")
> [@Rodgers01](#): > > That was my point of view until I spent a year in China and got - admittedly, however marginally - acquainted with the state of the country and its recent history. > > I don’t care if the US is #2 (or 3, or 10, or 20), but I’d _much_ rather not have China be #1 in the world. At least not with its current government. I second this motion. The answer to the OP’s question is two-fold. First, China is _not_ a free country. Second, whatever country is the world’s industrial leader wields great influence over other countries. Hence China as an industrial leader will have a bad, anti-freedom, pro-autocracy influence worldwide. In fact, it’s not necessary to wait until China’s GDP officially surpasses that of the USA. The bad influence is already starting to happen. ---
**Author:** ![Ximenean](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/aca169/32.png) [@Ximenean](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ximenean)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579/15 "2011-05-12T13:21:37Z")
I’m not so sure about the idea that China will just smoothly progress to having a per capita GDP anywhere near “Western” standards. The richer the country gets, the more powerful the middle class becomes, and it the more difficult it gets to maintain repressive rule. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579/16 "2011-05-12T22:18:10Z")
> [@even\_sven](#): > > If you look at [China’s population distribution](http://www.grida.no/prog/global/cgiar/awpack/aspop.htm), you see that their population is extremely densely packed in a relatively small area. This is for a good reason- a lot of that land is very, very difficult to deal with. China has essentially be able to encompass its own buffer areas- but they are buffer areas none the less. It would be very hard for China to hold on to land that lies across the Gobi from their population centers. Hasn’t stopped them from shoving & pushing Russia in Siberia.:dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579/17 "2011-05-12T22:42:34Z")
Just take a look at their claims over the South China Sea. Now imagine that they were the strongest military and economic power on Earth. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579/18 "2011-05-12T22:45:19Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > Second, whatever country is the world’s industrial leader wields great influence over other countries. Hence China as an industrial leader will have a bad, anti-freedom, pro-autocracy influence worldwide. In other words, it would be indistinguishable from when America was #1? Really; short of laughing maniacally while they launch nukes at everyone else, it would be hard for them to have a _less_ benevolent foreign policy than America does. Yes, America is nicer to live in, but that doesn’t translate to it being nicer to outsiders. ---
**Author:** ![Cerowyn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/82dd89/32.png) [@Cerowyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cerowyn)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2011, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579/19 "2011-05-12T23:36:06Z")
For the U.S., falling to #2 would be catastrophic. Amongst other things, if the U.S. dollar was dropped from the basis for a lot of commodities, it would be faced with coping with exchange fluctuations to acquire those goods. Other nations deal with that now, of course, but it means that internal American inflationary effects can be magnified as the cost of materials goes up. Picture oil being priced in euros, rather than U.S. dollars. In just this year, the USD has gone from an average of $1.33 per euro to $1.45. That’s a 9% increase in the “price of oil”, even if the price in euros doesn’t change at all. ---
**Author:** ![mac\_bolan00](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b3f665/32.png) [@mac\_bolan00](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mac_bolan00)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2011, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579/20 "2011-05-13T03:52:25Z")
more shouts of “USA! USA!” during sporting events. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-it-such-a-disaster-if-china-passes-the-us-to-become-the-leading-industrial-nation/581579.md?page=2)