# Why is Pascal's Wager a Dead Letter? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 23, 2011, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-pascals-wager-a-dead-letter/582893 "2011-05-23T13:48:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2011, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-pascals-wager-a-dead-letter/582893/61 "2011-05-24T04:18:08Z")
> [@Two\_Many\_Cats](#): > > I consider myself a Deist. You can’t talk me out of it so don’t try. > > Here’s what I think. An intelligent force created all this in pursuit of a sort of hobby. In other words, we are God’s terrarium. God is indifferent to worship, if not a little amused by it, and does not become involved in our personal lives any more than we would settle disputes between ant colonies. > > There is no afterlife. > > We are sitting on a celestial shelf or a credenza somewhere in extra-existence. I’m not dissing you, but why are deists monotheistic? Due to this, I see your post as agnostic and not deist. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2011, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-pascals-wager-a-dead-letter/582893/62 "2011-05-24T05:08:04Z")
> [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](#): > > OK, play nice, I want a real answer here. > > Why is Pascal’s Wager invalid? Over in the Pit people are saying it is not worth discussion. Why not? > > The Wager certainly does not prove God’s existence. I maintain there can be no such proof, but what is wrong with the argument itself? > > I think I can go from memory and say the line of reasoning is something along the lines of, “Ought I to believe in God? Well if I do and I am wrong, I lose nothing. If I don’t and I am wrong I lose a great deal. Therefore I ought to act as if God exists in order to be safe.” > > Why is that so unworthy of consideration? I think the premise is false. You’re not being asked to wager nothing - you’re being asked to wager your life. Or at least you’re being asked to change your behavior in this life in a manner you wouldn’t do otherwise. The wager is based on the argument that the afterlife _might_ exist and _might_ be infinite. And the infinite size of the afterlife makes it worth more than any possible benefit you could derive in a finite lifetime. But this life, unlike the afterlife, indisputably exists. So you’re being asked to wager a small amount of something against what may turn out to be an infinite amount of nothing. There is a common contemporary equivalent to Pascal’s Wager - the lottery. Slogans like “you gotta be in it to win it” are based on the same logic as Pascal’s Wager. The idea is that you might as well play, however bad the odds are, because you’ll have no chance of ever having a hundred million dollars if you don’t play. But like Pascal’s Wager, the cost of playing is ignored - you still need the dollar. The only way Pascal’s Wager would be logically sound is if it included the equivalent of free lottery tickets - the possibility of playing and having a chance at the reward at no cost. Pascal’s Wager would make sense if you could practice a religious belief that in no way interfered with the way you lived your life - a religion that allowed you to do whatever you wanted just the same as if you didn’t have the faith. ---
**Author:** ![Naxos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/50afbb/32.png) [@Naxos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Naxos)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2011, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-pascals-wager-a-dead-letter/582893/63 "2011-05-24T05:12:57Z")
> [@Locrian](#): > > I’m not dissing you, but why are deists monotheistic? Due to this, I see your post as agnostic and not deist. Deists are theists. Therefore all their claims are false by definition. ---
**Author:** ![Grumman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/43a26b/32.png) [@Grumman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grumman)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2011, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-pascals-wager-a-dead-letter/582893/64 "2011-05-24T05:14:10Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > The only way Pascal’s Wager would be logically sound is if it included the equivalent of free lottery tickets - the possibility of playing and having a chance at the reward at no cost. Pascal’s Wager would make sense if you could practice a religious belief that in no way interfered with the way you lived your life - a religion that allowed you to do whatever you wanted just the same as if you didn’t have the faith. So a religion in which God is a hippy? “I’d like you guys to believe in me, but if you don’t, that’s cool too! I’ll leave the gate open, so if you change your mind after you die, just let yourself in - no hard feelings, okay?” ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2011, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-pascals-wager-a-dead-letter/582893/65 "2011-05-24T06:02:30Z")
There are elements of this in Christianity and Islam. Belief in God is held up as the primary act of faith which outranks all others. But these religions have secondary requirements as well. But it shows it would be possible to have a religion in which the only article of faith is faith itself - the only action required by God is to believe in him. No commandments on issues like who you can have sex with or what you can eat or drink or when you can kill somebody - these are all secular issues to be decided by mankind. All God is concerned about is that people believe in him (with no rules on how they express that belief). If you do that one thing, you get to enter paradise when you die. That’s a pretty low-maintenance religion that most people could follow. ---
**Author:** ![Two\_Many\_Cats](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8dc957/32.png) [@Two\_Many\_Cats](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Two_Many_Cats)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2011, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-pascals-wager-a-dead-letter/582893/66 "2011-05-24T12:58:35Z")
> [@Locrian](#): > > I’m not dissing you, but why are deists monotheistic? Due to this, I see your post as agnostic and not deist. I’m not averse to the concept of multiple Gods. I mean, why build a terrarium if you can’t show it off to someone? Perhaps this terrarium universe was built as a sort of 4-H club project as a team effort. Maybe we’re up for a ribbon at a supernatural county fair or something. I’m just saying as a Deist, I think there’s something larger than us out there. Maybe whoever started all this is dead by now. Who knows? ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2011, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-pascals-wager-a-dead-letter/582893/67 "2011-05-24T13:42:47Z")
My personal problem with the wager, aside from the logical issues that have been discussed at length in this thread, is that it’s annoyingly similar to the “No atheists in foxholes” trope. That is to say, whenever people throw Pascal’s wager at me, I get the sense that what they’re really saying is, “We all know that deep down you really do believe in God. It’s impossible not to, because I can’t conceive of anyone not believing in God. So stop your silly shenanigans and take this one simple step to save your soul.” I know this isn’t the fault of the wager itself, but I find its delivery is almost always condescending. I wouldn’t even know where to begin “believing” again. It’s not like I could just flip a switch. It’s just not a part of me anymore. ---
**Author:** ![Grumman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/43a26b/32.png) [@Grumman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grumman)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2011, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-pascals-wager-a-dead-letter/582893/68 "2011-05-24T15:35:49Z")
> [@steronz](#): > > I know this isn’t the fault of the wager itself, But it is. That’s the whole point: both say that if you raise the stakes high enough, an atheist will/should fold like a house of cards and believe whatever nonsensical claptrap you can come up with. ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2011, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-pascals-wager-a-dead-letter/582893/69 "2011-05-25T12:59:49Z")
> [@Naxos](#): > > Deists are theists. Therefore all their claims are false by definition. Which definition are you using and which dictionary did you get it from? ---
**Author:** ![Skald\_the\_Rhymer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Skald\_the\_Rhymer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skald_the_Rhymer)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2011, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-pascals-wager-a-dead-letter/582893/70 "2011-05-25T20:03:01Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Which is why all missionaries should be killed on sight. Even I think that’s extreme. If we shoot them as soon as we identify them, looting their bank accounts becomes that much harder. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2011, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-pascals-wager-a-dead-letter/582893/71 "2011-05-25T20:23:10Z")
> [@Two\_Many\_Cats](#): > > I’m not averse to the concept of multiple Gods. I mean, why build a terrarium if you can’t show it off to someone? Perhaps this terrarium universe was built as a sort of 4-H club project as a team effort. Maybe we’re up for a ribbon at a supernatural county fair or something. > > I’m just saying as a Deist, I think there’s something larger than us out there. Maybe whoever started all this is dead by now. Who knows? Are you aware of occam’s razor? ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2011, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-pascals-wager-a-dead-letter/582893/72 "2011-05-25T20:35:00Z")
> [@Grumman](#): > > So a religion in which God is a hippy? > > “I’d like you guys to believe in me, but if you don’t, that’s cool too! I’ll leave the gate open, so if you change your mind after you die, just let yourself in - no hard feelings, okay?” I think it’s more like the religion of sleeping in on Sunday and then maybe watching some football. If there’s a belief system that preaches that I will be rewarded for the actions I already am taking, hey, sign me up. I really am wagering nothing in that case. I haven’t changed my life an iota. ---
**Author:** ![Two\_Many\_Cats](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8dc957/32.png) [@Two\_Many\_Cats](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Two_Many_Cats)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2011, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-pascals-wager-a-dead-letter/582893/73 "2011-05-26T04:34:40Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > Are you aware of occam’s razor? What? Not simple enough for you? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-pascals-wager-a-dead-letter/582893.md?page=3)