Yes, but I will continue to puzzle over it until the end of my days.
To add to this, I think Democrats ramped up the intensity too much in the early stages of Trump’s presidency to the point where criticism of his current mismanagement of Covid-19 doesn’t register as being much, if any, worse, in the minds of many Americans than what has happened before.
Democrats, and the media, during Trump’s first three years, when he made many blunders but the nation still had a roaring economy and things were by and large going pretty well: *“Trump is incompetent! Trump is a fascist! Trump is getting people killed!”
*
Democrats, and the media, at this time now, in March 2020, when millions of Americans may get infected and tens of thousands die, and the economy go into Great Depression II: *“Trump is incompetent! Trump is a fascist! Trump is getting people killed!”
*
It doesn’t register with much impact anymore, even if it’s fully true.
Hell, it’s peaking at 45.8% in the midst of the biggest “rally around the President” crisis since Pearl f-in Harbor. The question shouldn’t be “why is it going up”, the question should be “why is it still so low?”.
We’re a tribal nation now; an approval rating of 45% will win Trump the White House again.
Because it depends on how you construe approval.
I can totally see how his approval rating is rising. I can even, honestly say, in fact, that *I *approve of him more now than I ever have (except one other time: PM me if you want to know). You have to understand that does not mean in any sense that I approve of him, just that I think he is doing less evil than usual-- in fact, right now, I might even say he has risen from “Il Douche” to merely “most incompetent US president ever.” But the fact is, that does mean my approval of him has risen. From maybe, 0 to .25, but still, that’s a rise.
This.
Trump has a “Teflon Don” image that Democrats have a big deficit.
Nothing touches him. He got away with Mueller, impeachment.
Will his response give him trouble? We’ll see.
Let us just be honest for a moment… many, perhaps most but certainly not all Trump supporters are genuinely of low IQ.
IMO Trump’s base is made up 3 primary groups:
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The older lifelong republicans that ALWAYS vote republican, are wealthy and mostly white. These people could watch Trump commit murder on live TV and would still back him but because he is on “Team Red”.
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Middle class lifelong republicans who are mostly white and really want/wanted change. Drain the swamp, hillary is crooked (and unlikeable), et al. and Trump seemed like a rebel who would shake up politics. They generally believe that 80% of the news is somehow fake and have bought into Trump’s rhetoric and quite frankly his obvious lies and distortions.
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The un and under educated at or below the poverty line who - for reasons beyond me other than good ole racism - have been brainwashed to think Trump cares for the poor and their well being. I truly believe they are just too stupid to understand otherwise.
It is group three that think Trump is the greatest POTUS ever - even now - and it is both scary, fascinating and embarassing as a citizen of this country.
I absolutely believe that Trump is of average to below average IQ and this group 3 of voters believe they relate to him. Trump is not IQ smart but he may be the best showman, swindler, con man since P.T. Barnum… in that regard, he is actually world class.
I see most democrats believing that this pandemic will sink Trump but I - SADLY - am almost certain he will win re-election.
Except that, if things go the way they’re looking to go right now, it will be plainly obvious that this isn’t true.
Up until now, most of the issues that distinguish Trump supporters from Trump Opponents have been either very abstract, relative to the lives of most people, or have only had an effect on people most of his supporters don’t like.
For all the complaints about ICE and putting kids in cages, there is a significant number of people who actually think that was all a good idea. Same with The Wall, The Trade Wars, and Insulting Traditional Allies.
For a lot of the other stuff - The Mueller report, emoluments, corruption, impeachment, all that, that’s just abstract. Sure, you had an opinion about it, but at the end of the day, whether he was guilty or not had very little impact on your life. You could believe whatever you wanted to, because your belief made no difference in your life, or the world around you.
But this is different. If the numbers of infected keep going up the way they are, there are going to be a lot of deaths. And that can’t be covered up, waved away, played down, or any of his usual responses to bad news. And these deaths will hit everyone - Red or Blue, Black or White, Gay or Straight, no matter. In fact, if his supporters actually follow his advice and do things like pack the churches on Easter, it will hit them even harder than it hits his opponents. It will have direct, negative impacts on almost every one, and people will see that.
And they’ll also be able to see what happens in other countries, like Canada right next door. Compare the current numbers in the two countries:
We can already see significant differences in the trends, and that will only get worse in the next few weeks. If Trump really does push ahead with re-opening the country too early, that’s going to show. The comparison will be stark, and undeniable, and his usual gaslighting won’t work, because every American will know someone who died because of his stupidity.
This crisis will doom him, because not only will his usual routine not work, it will actively make things worse. Just look at the news, he’s getting even pettier by the day. This is not a man who will look at himself in the mirror and have a come-to-Jesus moment. He’ll keep playing the same games until someone stops him.
Dead cat bounce?
If it makes anyone feel better, the latest Fox News Poll **shows Biden 49% and Trump 40%. **Yes, Fox News Poll.
Of course he’s managing the pandemic well! If he weren’t, why would everyone around him robotically recite the same encomium praising his decisive actions and strong leadership?
I could be wrong, but I don’t think Fox News’s polling is particularly biased.
“Except that, if things go the way they’re looking to go right now, it will be plainly obvious that this isn’t true.”
It is plainly obvious right now and since before he was elected that Trump is a liar, a buffoon and unfit for office. Yet, here we are.
“…and his usual gaslighting won’t work, because every American will know someone who died because of his stupidity.”
You have much greater faith in your fellow voters than is warranted, IMHO. Gaslighting someone who wants to believe or already believes isn’t really gaslighting. His base could have their entire families die and they’ll blame the Dems, not Cheeto.
But no one would accuse them of leaning left and somehow jiggering the poll.
Oh no doubt, but looking at a fox news poll and assuming the truth is actually more pro-Democrat than that is incorrect also.
Did anyone? I think you’re over-reading this.
Well, that’s my point. It’s plainly obvious to you and me, but it’s clearly not plainly obvious to a lot of people, because he’s mostly been lying about things that are, in their essence, abstract concepts to most people. What percentage of the US population had any direct knowledge of what was really going on in Ukraine? What percentage were directly affected by it? Virtually zero. When you have no independent knowledge, and it has no effect on your life, it’s easy to just believe whatever BS you want to believe.
But this is different. Every american is already being directly affected by this, and that’s only going to get worse. And it’s impossible to fool yourself about losing your job and your grandparents as a result of this pandemic. Sure, some fanatics will still find an excuse to blame anyone but Trump, but a lot of people will see the truth.
And it doesn’t take very many of the latter to flip the next election. Always remember that: Trump got in on a very small margin. That’s all he needs to lose, to lose it all.
And you are far too cynical.
It actually doesn’t make me feel better because if you look at STATE poll results on 538, the ones added yesterday have Trump leading Biden in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. That is definitely not good news. We need to stop thinking national polls mean much about who will win the EC.
Both of those hurt,
I saw Biden ahead in Michigan, so that flips one big state worth 16. A 32 vote swing.
Do they have any polls on Florida (29) yet? That is the biggest one to flip.
Other somewhat likely battleground states include Ohio (18) & Indiana (11).