# Why is Sarah Palin considered the de facto leader of the Republican party? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 13, 2011, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525 "2011-01-13T22:19:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2011, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525/61 "2011-01-14T21:25:15Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I don’t agree. Palin is young - not even 50 yet. I kind of see her as being where Reagan was in 1964 - a lightning rod for the base, a guy who gave an electrifying speech but was otherwise not really experienced in national politics. I don’t think Palin can win in 2012, but with another 8-16 years of seasoning, who knows? She’s still got a lot of book learning to do, and she needs to learn how to speak with gravitas. Age will help that. I’m not sure she’s smart enough to learn what she really needs to learn to be taken seriously, but I think her chance of winning when she’s 60 are probably higher than they are now. You see, our reads on that are different. I think she runs in 2012 or not at all. Her political success is based on speaking and charisma. God knows they’re not based on the thoughtfulness of her policies and such. And that sort of thing burns out as it is a sort of ‘celebrity’ thing. She needs to study and learn and I don’t honestly think she has it in her to put in the work. Even at 60 she’s more likely to be a pundit or demogogue. Hell, right now people can’t tell if she’s actually interested in political power or cashing checks. In another 15 years at least we’ll have THAT question answered. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2011, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525/62 "2011-01-14T21:37:42Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > Y’know, this is a piss-poor method of choosing a de facto leader. Perhaps a strange woman in a pond might perchance lob a scimitar in her general direction? Then again she herself is strange… ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2011, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525/63 "2011-01-14T21:55:24Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > How is Palin going to get **seasoning**? That is something you get by being challenged, and she seems to be working as hard as possible to keep from being challenged. Writing **books** and appearing on reality shows doesn’t cut it. It’s a **cookbook** :eek: ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2011, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525/64 "2011-01-14T22:49:43Z")
I could see a Palin trajectory like this: - In 2012 she uses influence and fundraising to help elevate someone else to the presidency. Someone who is already liked in the Tea Party but who doesn’t have much fundraising or a national organization behind them. Mike Pence, for example. - In exchange for helping this person win, she is given a high profile cabinet position in the government. Secretary of State, or Secretary of the Interior, or something like that. - After 2-4 years in that position, she runs for Senate, or becomes the RNC head, or stays in the national spotlight in some other position. - In 2020 the guy she helped is out of office, and she takes another run at the presidency. Or, if his Vice President is popular, she sits on the sidelines in the Senate for another 4-8 years, then runs. Now, this would be a logical kind of political career trajectory that theoretically would be what might work for her. The big caveat of course is that the only way this works is if she distinguishes herself along the way and builds the credibility she doesn’t have now. I would think it more likely that she would wind up embarrassing herself and slowly fading away. But certainly she doesn’t believe that she would, so this could be the kind of long-term career plan she’s looking at. The other, and probably more likely option, is that she stays on the periphery of government and essentially becomes another Rush Limbaugh/Anne Coulter type figure making gazillions of dollars writing books and giving speeches, but never rises much further than where she is now in politics. Or, she could go the Huckabee route and simply hang around, staying in the spotlight for no apparent reason, and then try again in four years. Huckabee still finishes high in these polls, and he doesn’t do much of anything these days except appear on Fox from time to time. Romney has been out of government for years and years, but still manages to make the shortlist for presidential candidates. So maybe she’ll just keep doing what she’s doing for another election cycle or two. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2011, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525/65 "2011-01-14T23:02:10Z")
Sam, if she wanted a career in elective politics, she had a clear career path available to her–stay as governor of Alaska. The fact that she quit the governorship after two years shows that she’s done with running for office. The notion of her serving in a cabinet position is utterly preposterous. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2011, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525/66 "2011-01-14T23:04:57Z")
I agree…I think that she has thrown in the towel on a real political career at this point. However, that doesn’t preclude some sort of appointment (though I have my doubts she’d take one), assuming she actually had some effect on getting someone else elected to the top spot (I don’t see anyone beating Obama in 2012 unless the economy goes completely tits up and we have a full melt down). -XT ---
**Author:** ![River\_Hippie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/river_hippie/32/26_2.png) [@River\_Hippie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/River_Hippie)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2011, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525/67 "2011-01-14T23:14:42Z")
If she can figure out how to bypass critical interviews and debates she has a chance. As soon as she starts doing non-softball interviews and debating opponents…she’s toast. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2011, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525/68 "2011-01-15T00:03:20Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I don’t agree. Palin is young - not even 50 yet. I kind of see her as being where Reagan was in 1964 - a lightning rod for the base, a guy who gave an electrifying speech but was otherwise not really experienced in national politics. I don’t think Palin can win in 2012, but with another 8-16 years of seasoning, who knows? She’s still got a lot of book learning to do, and she needs to learn how to speak with gravitas. Age will help that. I’m not sure she’s smart enough to learn what she really needs to learn to be taken seriously, but I think her chance of winning when she’s 60 are probably higher than they are now. I think you vastly underestimate how much her physical attractiveness plays a role in her popularity. She’s a novelty - a hot(ish) woman who talks about shooting wolves from helicopters and who riles up this damn libruls. That appeals at a very base level to lots of dumb fucks. She’s in her mid-40s and those looks will be fading pretty fast. Once they’re gone the novelty will be almost completely gone and she will be irrelevant. If she looked like a 60 year old Hillary Clinton, she wouldn’t have even garnered a second thought from the national stage. Her power is waning and should be practically gone if she doesn’t do something dramatic for the 2012 election. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2011, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525/69 "2011-01-15T00:12:09Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I could see a Palin trajectory like this: > > - In 2012 she uses influence and fundraising to help elevate someone else to the presidency. Someone who is already liked in the Tea Party but who doesn’t have much fundraising or a national organization behind them. Mike Pence, for example. I’ve been telling my friends that Pence is the guy to watch out for if Romney fizzles. > [@](#): > > - In exchange for helping this person win, she is given a high profile cabinet position in the government. Secretary of State, or Secretary of the Interior, or something like that. She’s riding the money train, and I don’t see her jumping off that to be Secretary of anything. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2011, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525/70 "2011-01-15T00:25:23Z")
A little known figure from “Hitchhikers Guide” has just been elected head of the RNC: **[Rinse Preebus](http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110115/ap_on_re_us/us_gop_chairman)**. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2011, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525/71 "2011-01-15T00:32:35Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > It’s a **cookbook** :eek: Heh. Perhaps I should amend my statement to say writing books is not _politically_ challenging. My wife is working on a book now, and if she hears me say it isn’t challenging I’m in deep doo doo. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2011, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525/72 "2011-01-15T00:45:39Z")
As far as her nomination chances go - 1. Would she want the job? Who knows but many believe that she wants to keep what she’s got right now - celebrity and wealth - not actually work hard in public service. Being President is hard work. Hell, running for President is too. I do not think she will run. Losing badly early on will make her lose her celebrity cache and that is too big of a risk for her to take. 2. If she does then now is the time? Maybe. She has support most among the lower educated and lower SES of the GOP who are looking for a lightening rod for their frustration about the economy and against the intellectualism that Obama embodies. These are not the people who usually come out and vote in primaries in big numbers but that frustration may get them to the polls. As the economy improves that frustration will dissipate. And the competition right now is indeed pretty weak. And she gets a lot of “earned media” and is agile at handling social media. And no, she isn’t smart enough to “season”. So yeah, now or never. And I bet never. As to the op: as said this week because of her gunsight graphic that Giffords had expressed concern over and that stayed up anyway, in the context of Giffords being shot. Why does she get the media spotlight in general? Because she says things that people react to, strongly, one way or the other. Libruls click on the CNN Ticker with her name to see what new idiocy she’s done and Tea Partiers to admire the fact that she said what they were thinking. We’ve got 24 hour news channels and you need to pander with stupid shit most of the time. You need controversy and she helps provide it. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2011, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525/73 "2011-01-15T01:22:52Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > As well as the other things mentioned, the over-the-top attacks against her by the left have caused Republicans to rise to her defense. Had the left treated her as just another politician and essentially ignored her, she would not be nearly as strong or popular in the Republican party. > > I can`t count the number of times I`ve heard conservatives say that they didn`t particularly like Palin for President, but they like her because her enemies are so vitriolic. The fact that she gets under liberals`skin as badly as she does, and that they react so poorly to her and show their asses so much is one of her biggest selling points on the right. > > That said, I think Sarah Palin`s star is starting to fade, for two reasons: One is that the Republicans have more power again, and therefore new leaders are stepping up to the front (I agree that she benefited from a power vacuum on the right). The other is that she`s over-exposed. Her TV show has crashed in the ratings, her last book didn`t sell so well, and her obvious limitations are becoming more apparent even to her ardent supporters. I think you are correct and to add to it, even some of the most vapid of her followers have started to figure out that’s she’s just so fucking stupid. Oops…I basically reiterated what you said in your last sentence. Sorry! ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2011, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525/74 "2011-01-15T01:41:11Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Newt Gingrich says a lot of smart things. Palin, not so much. Just because something is meant to sting like a lash does not make it smart. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2011, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525/75 "2011-01-15T02:10:39Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Newt Gingrich says a lot of smart things. Palin, not so much. I don’t know about that; there [lots of high points in her video](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9kfcEga0lk&feature=) on Wednesday. ---
**Author:** ![No\_Me\_Ayudes\_Compadre](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/no_me_ayudes_compadre/32/5224_2.png) [@No\_Me\_Ayudes\_Compadre](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/No_Me_Ayudes_Compadre)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2011, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525/76 "2011-01-15T02:37:19Z")
She will run to exercise and solidify her spoiler/kingmaker cred, and take in a lot of campaign contributions to SarahPAC. After the second debate she will bow out and throw her support to Lamar Alexander, and blame either the “lamestream media” or the “Elitist New York Intellectuals” for pushing her out. The leftover contributions will be used to further exercise her clout in other races. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2011, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525/77 "2011-01-15T03:53:17Z")
She doesn’t so much lead as just being somebody no Republican wants to piss off. Can’t piss off Limbaugh, can’t piss off Goober Norquist, can’t piss off the NRA. None of them lead, its just that anyone who wants to lead must make them all happy. ---
**Author:** ![joebuck20](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/74df32/32.png) [@joebuck20](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/joebuck20)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2011, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525/78 "2011-01-15T04:24:31Z")
She’s not book smart, as others have said. But she’s a genius when it comes to firing up the base and keeping her name in the news, which in her line of work are the types of smarts that matter most. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2011, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525/79 "2011-01-15T04:38:36Z")
I guess. How smart do you need to be to scream TAX CUTS… KEEP AMERICA STRONG… WE’RE PATRIOTS/REAL AMERICANS… OMG I’M A VICTIM LEAVE MY PUBLICITY WHORED FAMILY OUT OF THIS, etc? She hasn’t created a character to manipulate those with “folksy wisdom” like Larry the Cable Guy… that’s just who she is. She thinks in soundbites and bullshit. ---
**Author:** ![joebuck20](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/74df32/32.png) [@joebuck20](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/joebuck20)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2011, 6:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525/80 "2011-01-15T06:22:44Z")
I think the events of the past week have pretty much sealed her fate. She had an opportunity to spin this in her favor, as this presented a rare case in which she had a legitimate gripe against the media, over their speculation about what role she may or may not have played in the Tucson shootngs. But the attempt by her people to say that the crosshairs were surveyors marks just reeked of bullshit. And while she was right in her statement Wednesday to lambaste those who tried to pin the blame for the shootings on her, she also could have acknowledged the need to be more civil in our political discourse. Instead she came across as her usual harpy, “woe is me” self, playing the victim card all the way, and then stepped on her own dick with the “blood libel” thing. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-sarah-palin-considered-the-de-facto-leader-of-the-republican-party/567525.md?page=5)