I would agree that Gingrich is better edcuated; however, many of the things I hear coming out of his mouth are outstandingly ignorant and on par with Palin. It is trivial to point out positions in which Gingrich directly contradicts himself without acknowledgment. I personally think that Gingrich’s supposed intellect is little more than self-promotional hype and a charismatic way of speaking. Of course, I also didn’t think Bill Clinton was much brighter than a ten watt bulb with good hair.
I don’t think that’s true. The recently held Iowa caucus poll had Palin 4th, after Huckabee, Romney, and Newt Gingrich. Palin only got 11% of the vote. At the Southern Republican Leadership conference, Palin finished a distant third behind Romney and Ron Paul.
In addition, Republicans are keenly aware that Palin always finished last in ‘matchup-polls’ asking voters who they would vote for if Obama were up against various Republicans.
But frankly, I don’t think any of the current front-runners are going to be the next nominee. The Tea Party doesn’t trust Romney or Huckabee. They like Palin, but don’t think she can win.
I think the next Republican nominee is likely to to be a popular governor or one of the movers and shakers in the new Congress. I’d put my money on one of the following:
Chris Christie
Mitch Daniels
Mike Pence
Paul Ryan
Eric Cantor
Tim Pawlenty
Gary Johnson
Someone we haven’t heard from yet.
Newt and Romney have a chance as well. I’d put Palin’s odds of getting the Republican nomination at about 5:1, and they are only that high because of the strange way the nomination is determined, with a few small states having inordinate power. She’s got a lot of money and probably has a good ‘ground game’ in those states. So she could pull off the nomination if all the stars align. But I’d bet against it.
If someone is coming out of the woodwork still, we’ll have to hear from them very soon, because any serious contender will have to start building their organization and start fundraising in the next two or three months at the latest.
Gingrich has also said many dumb things. I’m just pointing out that he doesn’t only say dumb things.
And that’s the rub. Candidates the Tea Party trusts who can win don’t exist. For all that the pundits are jabbering about Pawlenty, the public at large is saying, “who?”
Because 1) Michael Steele obviously ain’t and 2) Palin’s struggle to remain relevant since 2008 has succeeded to the extent that she is (rightly or wrongly) publicly identified with the Tea Party movement, which has made such a heavy and partially successful bid recently to appoint itself the GOP’s new leadership.
No she isn’t.. Even limited to just Republicans, the majority don’t want her to run. Less than half of conservatives hold a positive view of Palin. The only people who think she is a presumptive 2012 Republican candidate are idiots. Oh, and the news media, although that still means idiots.
Actually, the front-runner emerging in Republican circles is Chris Christie. He’s said that he has no intention of running for President, but he’s wildly popular among Republicans, with Youtube videos of his confrontations with public union officials being described as ‘conservative porn’. If he announced tomorrow that he was running for President, he would top all the polls.
And if Obama turns out to be unpopular around election time, I think there will be a lot of desire to get away from the charismatic model of candidate and towards someone who comes across as a straight-talking problem solver. The guys with the good hair and tans and pearly white teeth will be marginalized and guys like Christie, Paul Ryan, or Mitch Daniels will be the flavor of the day.
Romney’s biggest advantage is that he still may be able to trade on his history as a rather successful businessman and the guy who turned around the Salt Lake City Olympics and saved it from disaster. If he can convince people that he’s still the brilliant fix-it man with a keen eye for efficiency and a strong managerial streak, he could win.
Throw me into that briar patch Brer Fox! If this is true, and I’m not doubting it, the Dems are smarter than I’d think. The poll released yesterday shows Palin doing significantly worse against Obama than either Romney or Huckabee. If the Republicans nominate her out of spite, they’ll get creamed.
However, I agree with you that she is peaking way too early, and either she isn’t smart enough or experienced enough to know how to plan a presidential campaign or she’s only in it for the money.
She’s just like Meg Whitman, who spent tens of millions of dollars over the summer to wind up in a dead heat with Jerry Brown, who spend nothing, at Labor Day and who also became viewed as the tired old candidate we saw too much as opposed to that fresh face, Jerry Brown.
And you, my friend, don’t understand public relations or Q-rating.
Right now, Sarah Palin has the highest Q-Rating around…certainly among republicans. Polls taken now or in the last year have very little to do with it. Even those which restrict those polled to registered republicans are only getting solid answers out of those who A) do this for a living (like me) or B) view this as their leading hobby. And that’s not who will determine the candidate. Those who determine the outcome of elections are those who get fired up in the last six weeks prior to election day. In a primary it also tends more towards those on the farther edge of both parties.
So with Palin:
Extremely well known
With positions outside the mainstream of her party
With a motivated base that she knows how to fire up
Essentially an unlimited amount of money with which to campaign
Right now she’s in the lead. And she’d be a fool not to try it. Because, even though I think she’d get beaten, sometimes you catch lightning in a bottle and end up winning when you shouldn’t.
2012 will be her only chance at this particular office, honestly. She may not want to run figuring that cashing the big checks is more fun than running. That’s a valid choice. But to say that she’s not in front of the rest of the pack (admittedly a small one so far) is foolish in the extreme.
The one thing conservatives are pissed off more than anything right now is the health care bill, which is pretty similar to MassCare, which was pushed through by Rommney. So, that’s going to be the big strike against him, and I think it will stop him.
As for Christie, Sam, though I’ve certainly heard about him his name recognition in his own state is only 38% according to the The State Column in NJ. I’m not saying he could do it but he’d better get on the stick. Headlining the upcoming fundraiser will help. And he’s clearly being established as an ‘establishment’ guy against Palin’s outsider status.
She’ll run. I’m sure her managers are telling her that if she doesn’t run she won’t be cashing big checks in 2014 - she’ll be appearing on Hollywood Squares if she is lucky.
It’s hard to say whether she’ll run. Of course Sarah “The Quitter” Palin will drop out early, but I can’t imagine her ego allowing her to stay out of the race. But on the other hand, I can’t imagine her on the rubber chicken circuit in New Hampshire and Iowa either. And on the other other hand, it seems her celebrity has already peaked, and by 2012 even the Tea Partiers will be sick of her.
Are they choosing a leader, though? Rush Limbaugh is very popular with Republicans, but no one wants him to run for President.
That really surprises me. But nonetheless, he’s very well known among national Republicans. But you’re right - if he actually wants to run, he’s going to have to start making moves very quickly.
I don’t think he’ll run, though. Not in 2012. I think he’ll finish his term as governor, probably run again, and if he wins he’ll start thinking about a Presidential run in 2016 or 2020.
I agree completely. It’s his biggest liability, and it’s probably a terminal liability at that. It’s one of the reasons I don’t think he’ll actually be the nominee.
I don’t agree. Palin is young - not even 50 yet. I kind of see her as being where Reagan was in 1964 - a lightning rod for the base, a guy who gave an electrifying speech but was otherwise not really experienced in national politics. I don’t think Palin can win in 2012, but with another 8-16 years of seasoning, who knows? She’s still got a lot of book learning to do, and she needs to learn how to speak with gravitas. Age will help that. I’m not sure she’s smart enough to learn what she really needs to learn to be taken seriously, but I think her chance of winning when she’s 60 are probably higher than they are now.
Also, I still think there’s a good chance she won’t run this year. Running carries big risks for her - if she runs and gets blown out in the primaries, she’ll lose a lot of influence and fundraising ability. If she wins the nomination and sinks like a stone in the general election, she’ll be the next Mondale or Dukakis and vanish from relevancy.
On the other hand, she was extremely effective for Republicans in the last election, and wielded a ton of power. Her role as a populist outsider and leader of the ‘base’ suits her talents and brings with it a lot of power and money. I think she’ll try to stay in that position for another election cycle, then re-evaluate her options in 2016.
The leader of a party is not the same as the next candidate. In 1964 Ike was the clear leader of the Republican party, for instance. Actually Rush - or perhaps Rush and some of the Fox crew - are credible choices as leader. It appears to be impossible for a Republican to criticize Rush, after all. I have no idea if or how much he is pulling strings from above, but he is a more plausible choice than Romney, say.
Reagan in 1964 was building up credibility my helping candidates. He became a viable candidate after he was a successful two term governor. I don’t think he would have had much of a chance if he quit after two years.
How is Palin going to get seasoning? That is something you get by being challenged, and she seems to be working as hard as possible to keep from being challenged. Writing books and appearing on reality shows doesn’t cut it. She’d have to become a senator at least, and actually do something in Washington, to have a chance.
Still, lots of her candidates lost, and in 2008 she cost the party votes when she was running herself. As I mentioned, the polls showing her doing much worse against Obama than Romney and Huckabee, but that is far from evidence that she won’t get the nomination. The Republicans seem to require an ideological purity these days which would give pause to a Bolshevik.