# Why is Tesla's market cap so high? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 13, 2024, 6:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594 "2024-12-13T06:09:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2025, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/181 "2025-10-02T23:20:52Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > Cars had to be ordered by 9/30. I think all of those count as shipped even if delivery is into October and if so there won’t be any bleedover. Those qualified for the tax benefit, but manufacturers can’t count them until they’re actually delivered. However, even with that, Q4 will be lower due to Q3 robbing some sales. > [@hajario](#): > > Tesla shaming seems to have gone out of fashion so maybe the stigma is less. I don’t think shaming is really the cause of the general Tesla sales decrease. Instead, it’s that Musk = Tesla in many people’s minds and he’s alienated pretty much all those of the Democratic party. I read a few years ago that around 60% of Tesla purchasers were Democrats. So it should not be at all surprising that their sales are cratering. I’m surprised they haven’t fallen faster. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2025, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/182 "2025-10-03T14:46:26Z")
Over the past year or so, I’ve noticed a lot fewer Teslas on the road here, and a lot more Chinese EVs. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2025, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/183 "2025-10-03T14:52:24Z")
Chinese EVs are effectively not allowed in the US but when they are they will probably take over unless they are tarriffed into oblivion. Tesla is supposed to have a budget model in 2027. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2025, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/184 "2025-10-03T15:51:25Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > Chinese EVs are effectively not allowed in the US but when they are they will probably take over unless they are tarriffed into oblivion. My understanding is the thing keeping them out now _is_ the tarriff. One hundred percent, I understand. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2025, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/185 "2025-10-03T21:50:58Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > Chinese EVs are effectively not allowed in the US but when they are they will probably take over unless they are tarriffed into oblivion. Tesla is supposed to have a budget model in 2027. I’m not sure. Australia doesn’t tariff chinese EVs. Looking at BYD’s Australian website, their cars run about 20-40k USD out the door. That’s pretty good, and I think their Seal model (which is equivalent to the Tesla model 3) is about 33k vs about 43k for the tesla model 3. However, Tesla still makes up about 50% of the Ev market in Australia, while BYD only makes up 15%. > **[BYD Automotive | BYD - New Energy Vehicles](https://bydautomotive.com.au/)** > > BYD Automotive | BYD - New Energy Vehicles You have to enter a postcode to see prices, so here is a list of Sydney postcodes. I’ve just been using the postcode 2000. Also 1.51 Australian dollars = $1 USD > **[Sydney Postcode](https://auspost.com.au/postcode/sydney)** > > Sydney postcode, see a map of Sydney and easily search and find postcodes for all towns and suburbs. Australia Post postcode finder I’m not sure if Tesla is coasting on name recognition or what, but they still make up half of EV sales in Australia which doesn’t tariff Chinese EVs. ---
**Author:** ![carrps](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carrps/32/2957_2.png) [@carrps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carrps)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2025, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/186 "2025-10-04T16:08:54Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > The gaudier the patter the cheaper the crook, as Sam Spade said. My absolute favorite line from _The Maltese Falcon._ I use it all the time. And it certianly applies to Musk. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2025, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/187 "2025-11-06T22:23:56Z")
> **[Musk could become history's first trillionaire as Tesla shareholders approve...](https://apnews.com/article/musk-tesla-electric-trillion-pay-stock-f2140db92e8032121f4c114234059165)** > > The world’s richest man was just handed a chance to become history’s first trillionaire. Elon Musk won a shareholder vote on Thursday that would give the Tesla CEO stock worth $1 trillion if he hits certain performance targets over the next decade. These stockholders are crazy. A huge number of potential buyers (liberals, Europeans, etc) won’t buy because Musk is in charge. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2025, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/188 "2025-11-06T23:13:52Z")
He has to meet near impossible metrics to get the full bonus. It’s not going to happen. If he does, the stock will go through the roof. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2025, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/189 "2025-11-06T23:38:51Z")
[The New York Times article](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/03/business/elon-musk-tesla-pay-vote.html?unlocked_article_code=1.zE8.ByNG.jwkJo31u0E3Z&smid=url-share) (gift link) on this ridiculous idea says, “Tesla’s board sees the plan as a way to motivate him as he transforms the company from primarily selling electric cars to making robots and self-driving taxis.” So his existing ownership of (Googling) roughly 14% of the company doesn’t motivate him? ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2025, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/190 "2025-11-07T01:27:41Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > These stockholders are crazy. A huge number of potential buyers (liberals, Europeans, etc) won’t buy because Musk is in charge. For the last 3 years (2023-2025) Tesla sales have stalled at a little under 2 million cars a year. The rapid growth in sales ended in 2023. They went from 100k sales in 2017, to 400k sales in 2020, to almost 2 million in 2023, but it hasn’t grown since. Also in China, people are abandoning Tesla in favor of Chinese made EVs. In nations where Chinese EVs are available, there is also a risk of Chinese EVs cutting into market share. Also pretty much every mature car company has EVs now, and they do not have the stench of fascism on them. As far as self driving, I thought that didn’t go over well in Austin. Other companies have superior self driving. And other companies have bipedal robots too. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2025, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/191 "2025-11-07T01:30:11Z")
Who has superior self-driving–except for Waymo and they don’t sell to the general public and only operate in heavily mapped areas? ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2025, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/192 "2025-11-07T01:32:03Z")
> **[Reddit - The heart of the internet](https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/1lkk5b6/i_did_some_statistics_on_the_observed_failures_of/)** ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2025, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/193 "2025-11-07T01:35:02Z")
Robotaxis aren’t the only self driving. They get a lot of revenue from self driving subscriptions in their regular vehicles. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2025, 1:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/194 "2025-11-07T01:37:51Z")
Ok this post seems to be extrapolating from ten cars in the first few days of deployment months ago. Bad math. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2025, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/195 "2025-11-07T01:42:00Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > For the last 3 years (2023-2025) Tesla sales have stalled at a little under 2 million cars a year. The rapid growth in sales ended in 2023. They went from 100k sales in 2017, to 400k sales in 2020, to almost 2 million in 2023, but it hasn’t grown since. Sorry for the triple post but here are some of the metrics that Tesla has to meet to get the full bonus (cut and paste from Google) > To receive his full $1 trillion bonus, Elon Musk must achieve several performance milestones, including delivering a total of **20 million vehicles** by 2035, along with other goals like boosting Tesla’s valuation to $8.6 trillion, and selling one million robotaxis and one million AI robots. The 20 million car target represents an average of only 1.2 million cars per year, a pace well below Tesla’s 2024 sales Not happening. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2025, 7:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/196 "2025-11-07T07:13:40Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > The 20 million car target represents an average of only 1.2 million cars per year, a pace well below Tesla’s 2024 sales Something’s wrong with their math. Assuming the incentive is 20 million car sales between now and 2035, that should be 2 million cars per year. Perhaps the incentive is for the total Tesla sales since the company started, which would probably make their math correct, but I don’t see why the incentive would be structured that way. At any rate, there was a recent report that Musk’s political involvement cost Tesla 1 million car sales between Oct 2022 (when he bought Twitter) and April 2025. I posted a link in another thread, but am too lazy to look it up again. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2025, 7:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/197 "2025-11-07T07:42:52Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > At any rate, there was a recent report that Musk’s political involvement cost Tesla 1 million car sales between Oct 2022 (when he bought Twitter) and April 2025. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if that’s true. ---
**Author:** ![CaveMike](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cavemike/32/16379_2.png) [@CaveMike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaveMike)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2025, 7:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/198 "2025-11-07T07:50:54Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > Assuming the incentive is 20 million car sales between now and 2035, that should be 2 million cars per year. Even that seems quite low for a 10-year aspirational goal. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2025, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/199 "2025-11-07T14:30:43Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > These stockholders are crazy. They are perfectly sane. The Tesla board members who voted to reward Musk are very rich people because the value of Tesla stock in their possession is grotesquely inflated. They all know this, buy they’re also afraid - for good reason - that the moment they show even the slightest lack of faith in Elmo, the bubble will burst and they’ll lose everything. So they’re ride-or-die, all the way. Of course, they all know the bubble will burst at some point, but given the choice between losing billions now and losing billions later, they’ll always choose later. _Après nous, le déluge_. ---
**Author:** ![Zoobi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/13edae/32.png) [@Zoobi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zoobi)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2025, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/200 "2025-11-07T18:26:42Z")
Exactly correct. As long as the stock has such a high value they get tremendous financial benefits even without selling. For example they can use it to borrow against. This cycle is well known: buy, borrow, die. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594.md?page=11)