# Why is Tesla's market cap so high?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [December 13, 2024, 6:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594 "2024-12-13T06:09:38Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 11

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**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\
**Post date:** [January 2, 2026, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/201 "2026-01-02T17:04:35Z")

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Tesla sold 418k cars in Q4 which is 16% fewer than Q4 last year and a bit lower than the consensus estimate of 422k. This is slightly mitigated by a lot of extra cars sold in Q3 just before the tax incentive went away. They sold 1.79M cars in 2024 and 1.64M in 2025 so a 9% decrease year to year.

Their energy storage business did much better than expected. I don’t think that’s a major percentage of their overall revenue.

Of course it’s largely about margins. We will know that on Jan 28th. The stock is down 1.8% at the moment.

> **[Tesla Reports Q4 Delivery Numbers: Narrowly Misses on Deliveries; Energy Hits...](https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/3468/tesla-reports-q4-delivery-numbers-narrowly-misses-on-deliveries-energy-hits-record)**
>
> Tesla Q4 2025 deliveries narrowly miss expectations at 418k, but a record 14.2 GWh energy deployment signals a major shift in the company's revenue mix.

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**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\
**Post date:** [January 2, 2026, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/202 "2026-01-02T19:26:57Z")

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in 2022, about 10 million EVs were sold globally. in 2025 it was closer to 20 million.

tesla meanwhile has seen their sales flatline the last 3 years. sales peaked in 2023 and have been slowly declining. at about 1.6 million a year.

the % of EVs that are tesla keeps going down. in theory, by 2030 the world may be buying 30-40 million EVs a year but tesla will still only be about 1.5 million of those.

BYD officially outsold tesla in 2025, and BYD stock is worth $12 a share with a market cap of 120 billion.

teslas self driving debut in austin was a disaster.

their bipedal robots are controlled by human operators to give the illusion that they are more advanced than they really are.

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**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\
**Post date:** [January 2, 2026, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/203 "2026-01-02T19:36:12Z")

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> [@Wesley\_Clark](#):
>
> teslas self driving debut in austin was a disaster.

I think that’s an overstatement but it certainly wasn’t a smooth start. They are doing well enough now. During the big power outage in SF, the Waymos were dead in the water and the Robos still worked.

The FSD is doing very well and is already getting approval in the EU countries. That is a big source of revenue and shouldn’t be ignored.

The robots are objectively ridiculous.

I doubt that Tesla cars will ever be as niche as you suppose. The Y was still the top selling car in 2025. That said, if the next Administration allows Chinese EVs to be sold here, it’s going to be a tough road ahead.

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**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\
**Post date:** [January 29, 2026, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/204 "2026-01-29T18:23:04Z")

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Tesla announced their results and slightly beat quarterly estimates but the big shocker is that they are killing the Model S (sports car) and Model X (minivan) so that the Fremont factory can build Optimus Robots. In fairness, they (along with the Cybertruck) were only 3% of their deliveries last year but this is still surprising to me. There will be a hiring boost, not layoffs, in Fremont in the short term.

2025 was their first annual decline ever. Shares are down 2.5% at the moment while the overall market is down 0.7%.

> **[Elon Musk says Tesla ending Models S and X production, converting Fremont...](https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/01/28/tesla-ending-model-s-x-production.html)**
>
> On Tesla's fourth-quarter earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the company is ending production of its Model S and X vehicles.

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**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\
**Post date:** [January 29, 2026, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/205 "2026-01-29T18:31:42Z")

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So they’re going to have only three vehicle models? Weird, especially since the Model 3 and Model Y are at least six or seven years old.

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**Author:** ![Reply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/reply/32/15952_2.png) [@Reply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Reply)\
**Post date:** [January 29, 2026, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/206 "2026-01-29T18:36:11Z")

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They’re moving away from simple EVs and pivoting to AI and robotics: [Tesla discontinues Model X and S vehicles as Elon Musk pivots to robotics | Tesla | The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/jan/28/tesla-q4-earnings-estimates-elon-musk)

Chasing the hype like everyone else, I guess. Musk also keeps using his various companies to fund the other ones: [Elon Musk Says Tesla Is a Tech Firm. It's Starting to Look Like One. - Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-tech-company-elon-musk-ai-robotics-optimus-robotaxi-2026-1)

> Tesla also said it had [agreed to invest $2 billion in xAI](https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-q4-earnings-tsla-stock-live-updates-2026-1) and to evaluate “potential AI collaborations” with Musk’s AI startup.
> 
> It came as the company’s financial disclosures painted a stark picture of the troubles facing its EV business, which saw sales decline for the [second year in a row](https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-sales-fall-second-year-ev-elon-musk-2026-1) in 2025.
> 
> Tesla beat Wall Street’s expectations, but reported its first-ever decline in annual revenue and said profits fell by 46% last year, while revenue from car sales fell by 11% year-over-year in the last quarter.

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**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\
**Post date:** [January 29, 2026, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/207 "2026-01-29T18:38:49Z")

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That CNBC article says, “Tesla is developing Optimus with the aim of someday selling it as a bipedal, intelligent robot capable of everything from factory work to babysitting.” It also mentions that the Fremont factory will be able to produce a million robots annually. So what is the market for these robots? Where are they going to sell that many?

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**Author:** ![Reply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/reply/32/15952_2.png) [@Reply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Reply)\
**Post date:** [January 29, 2026, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/208 "2026-01-29T18:39:40Z")

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They’d make for the perfect enforcers for the eternal administration. Or sexbots.

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**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\
**Post date:** [January 29, 2026, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/209 "2026-01-29T19:21:40Z")

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Regarding the Optimus robots, it’s not at all clear to me that there’s that much there. I’m no expert but from what I can tell, Boston Dynamics has demonstrated similar robots for a long time, as did Honda with the Asimo robot. Meanwhile Tesla has three vehicle models that aren’t selling all that much and, from what I’ve read, aren’t as nice as those from other companies.

In short, I have _no_ idea why the company’s market cap is as high as it is.

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**Author:** ![Reply](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/reply/32/15952_2.png) [@Reply](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Reply)\
**Post date:** [January 29, 2026, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/210 "2026-01-29T19:35:03Z")

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> [@Dewey\_Finn](#):
>
> it’s not at all clear to me that there’s that much there.

It’s not like FSD had all that much there, either, but that didn’t stop Musk from pitching it year after year for his billions. He just has to keep generating hype, pivoting from one thing to another, to always stay just one step ahead of reality. Dreamers like him need not be bothered by pesky little things like the ability to actually deliver.

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**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\
**Post date:** [January 29, 2026, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/211 "2026-01-29T19:40:14Z")

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I mentioned Boston Dynamics; the company was bought by Hyundai five years ago for about a billion dollars. Prior to that, it was owned by Softbank, and a division of Google before that. They’ve been developing similar robots for a long time, and yet the company seems to have bounced from owner to owner. And Tesla plans to make a million of their robots each year?

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**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\
**Post date:** [January 29, 2026, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/212 "2026-01-29T22:25:15Z")

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The main problem with humanoid robots like Optimus is the difficulty of duplicating the human hand. Not in looks, that’s easy. But all the things hands can do are impossible to duplicate with the current state of the art, or for that matter, the foreseeable state of the art.

> **[Humanoid Robots Keep Slipping Into the Future, Much Like Fusion - CleanTechnica](https://cleantechnica.com/2025/12/27/humanoid-robots-keep-slipping-into-the-future-much-like-fusion/)**
>
> Legged robots can flip and dance, but safe general-purpose humanoids in homes remain decades away due to manipulation and safety limits.

> [@](#):
>
> Dexterous manipulation remains the central unsolved problem in robotics, and the reasons go well beyond mechanical design. Human hands combine strength, fine force control, dense tactile feedback, compliance, and rapid reflexive adjustment in ways that are deeply integrated and largely subconscious. Robots struggle not because they lack fingers, but because touch itself is a difficult modality to sense, represent, and learn from.

This subject probably deserves its own thread. In fact, I bet there’s already one out there.

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**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\
**Post date:** [January 29, 2026, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/213 "2026-01-29T22:35:49Z")

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It’s an absolute mystery. Aggravating, really.

Killing the S/X models makes sense as it’s a 14-year-old platform. That’s _ancient_ in car years. What’s insane is not having a replacement in the works. The 3/Y have been recently refreshed but as noted, sales are dropping. The Cybertruck is a disaster, the Roadster 2.0 is vaporware, the Cybercab relies on technology that doesn’t yet exist, and Optimus is a pipe dream. xAI is a mediocre chatbot.

What exactly is there other than a greater fool?

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**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\
**Post date:** [January 30, 2026, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/214 "2026-01-30T01:53:51Z")

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> [@Dewey\_Finn](#):
>
> Regarding the Optimus robots, it’s not at all clear to me that there’s that much there. I’m no expert but from what I can tell, Boston Dynamics has demonstrated similar robots for a long time, as did Honda with the Asimo robot. Meanwhile Tesla has three vehicle models that aren’t selling all that much and, from what I’ve read, aren’t as nice as those from other companies.
> 
> In short, I have _no_ idea why the company’s market cap is as high as it is.

Now that Tesla has shown people don’t want their EVs, and their self driving isn’t working, they need a new idea to pitch to shareholders saying ‘the company will be making trillions in revenue in 5 years with new technology X’ but technology X that will generate trillions in revenue keeps changing when Musk can’t produce a competitive product.

What happens when the dozen other companies working on bipedal robots end up selling more robots than tesla? What happens when people prefer not to buy a Tesla robot due to Musks ties to fascism? If/when I buy a bipedal robot, I’m not buying one from Tesla.

Not only that, but bipedal robots are going to be widespread when they happen. As a result of the competition, the margins may be minor since there is so much competition. It could be like buying a flat screen TV. Everyone has one, but the margins are tiny because a dozen companies are constantly trying to undercut each other. Its not like Zenith has a corner on the flat screen TV market and can charge huge amounts for an inferior product. If they try to do that, one of the dozen other companies will undercut them.

When that happens, they’ll pivot to yet another ‘new technology X’ that Musk will use to con shareholders into overvaluing the stock by saying ‘in 5 years, we will make trillions with new technology X’.

Meanwhile other companies will produce more and better versions of ‘new technology X’ and those companies will have a market cap of 100 billion while Tesla has a market cap of 2 trillion.

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**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\
**Post date:** [January 30, 2026, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/215 "2026-01-30T02:17:12Z")

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> [@hajario](#):
>
> I think that’s an overstatement [that Tesla’s self driving debut was a failure] but it certainly wasn’t a smooth start. They are doing well enough now. During the big power outage in SF, the Waymos were dead in the water and the Robos still worked.
> 
> The FSD is doing very well and is already getting approval in the EU countries. That is a big source of revenue and shouldn’t be ignored.

> **[Tesla's own Robotaxi data confirms crash rate 3x worse than humans even with...](https://electrek.co/2026/01/29/teslas-own-robotaxi-data-confirms-crash-rate-3x-worse-than-humans-even-with-monitor/)**
>
> Tesla’s nascent robotaxi program is off to a rough start. New NHTSA crash data, combined with Tesla’s new disclosure of...

> According to a chart in Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings report showing cumulative robotaxi miles, the fleet has traveled approximately 500,000 miles as of November 2025. That works out to roughly one crash every 55,000 miles.
> 
> For comparison, human drivers in the United States average approximately one police-reported crash every 500,000 miles, according to NHTSA data.
> 
> That means Tesla’s robotaxis are crashing at a rate **9 times higher than the average human driver**.
> 
> However, that figure doesn’t include non-police-reported incidents. When adding those, or rather an estimate of those, humans are closer to 200,000 miles between crashes, which is still a lot better than Tesla’s robotaxi in Austin.

Waymo is supposedly safer than a human driver by comparison.

> **[After 50 million miles, Waymos crash a lot less than human drivers](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2025/03/after-50-million-miles-waymos-crash-a-lot-less-than-human-drivers/)**
>
> Waymo has been in dozens of crashes. Most were not Waymo's fault.

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**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\
**Post date:** [April 2, 2026, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/216 "2026-04-02T16:52:09Z")

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In Q1 Tesla delivered 342k vehicles which is an increase of the 324k delivered in Q1 last year, an increase of 6.3%. This is a decline from Q4 but there is always a decline from Q4 to Q1 so no big deal there. It was, however, below analysts expectations of 366k. A lot of the increase is in Europe after a disastrous 2025. Sales have surged there.

Model X and S have been discontinued and all remaining inventory is effectively sold out.

> **[Tesla Q1 2026: Deliveries Fall Just Shy of Analyst Estimates](https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/3892/tesla-q1-2026-deliveries-fall-just-shy-of-estimates)**
>
> Tesla has released its production and delivery numbers for the first quarter of 2026, revealing a company grappling with a complex shift in its product lineup

> **[Tesla Sees Major Sales Surge Across Europe in March](https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/3890/tesla-sees-major-sales-surge-across-europe-in-march)**
>
> After a rocky 2025 that saw the automaker lose nearly half of its market share in the region, new registration data for March shows a massive reversal

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**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\
**Post date:** [April 2, 2026, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/217 "2026-04-02T16:56:53Z")

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> [@hajario](#):
>
> Model X and S have been discontinued and all remaining inventory is effectively sold out.

Dang, those were the best models.

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**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\
**Post date:** [April 2, 2026, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/218 "2026-04-02T17:01:00Z")

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I just rode in an X for the first time ever a couple of days ago. My cousin owns it and he loves it. His lease ends in like eight months. He checked and it would have been absurdly expensive to break the lease and get a new one in the last days.

They were such a tiny percent of their sales that it made sense for them to focus on the core models.

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**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\
**Post date:** [April 2, 2026, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/219 "2026-04-02T17:12:19Z")

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> [@hajario](#):
>
> I just rode in an X for the first time ever a couple of days ago. My cousin owns it and he loves it. His lease ends in like eight months. He checked and it would have been absurdly expensive to break the lease and get a new one in the last days.

We have an X. Despite my hatred for Musk, I must admit the Model X is a very fine car. Many of the things people don’t like about Tesla’s are not true for the X. It’s larger than it looks and is great for road trips. My brother has a Model S. He likes it, but doesn’t love it.

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**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\
**Post date:** [April 5, 2026, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-teslas-market-cap-so-high/1011594/220 "2026-04-05T23:33:16Z")

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> [@hajario](#):
>
> In Q1 Tesla delivered 342k vehicles which is an increase of the 324k delivered in Q1 last year, an increase of 6.3%. This is a decline from Q4 but there is always a decline from Q4 to Q1 so no big deal there. It was, however, below analysts expectations of 366k. A lot of the increase is in Europe after a disastrous 2025. Sales have surged there

Thats not impressive. Tesla sales have been flat since 2023. Meanwhile EV sales have nearly doubled globally since then. Teslas went from 13% of global EV sales in 2023, to 7.8% in 2025. The trend line is clear, Tesla will probably be \<5% of global EV sales by 2027. Thats why musk is switching to robots, to con investors into thinking he will be the next trillionaire in that field, because its becoming too hard to ignore the fact that tesla is not the world leader in EVs with \<8% of global share and a clear declining trend. So musk needs to pretend he will pioneer the next trillion dollar technology to keep investors conned.

The issue with Musk and tesla being a leader in bipedal robots is multi-faceted

1. A lot of companies are working on bipedal robots. A dozen or more. Tesla is just one of many. Saying Tesla will corner the market in bipedal robots is like saying LG will corner the market in flat screen TVs and can charge whatever they want. Bipedal robots will be a massive new consumer item, with a dozen or more companies’ robots hitting the market at about the same time. As a result, profit margins will be razor thin as companies compete for sales. Musk is trying to scam investors into thinking he will make trillions in profits when his actual profits on bipedial robots will probably be less than a billion a year when they hit the market due to all the competition.
2. Tesla bipedal robots are already behind competitors. They use a human to control them to give the illusion they are more competent than they really are. Musk is scamming investors into thinking his tech is more advanced than it really is
3. A lot of people are not comfortable with making a sociopathic, misogynistic fascist richer, or giving him control of robots they have in their homes. I would buy a bipedal robot from anyone other than Musk. Many people would.

Musk is constantly trying to scam investors into thinking he will have a strangehold on the next trillion dollar technology. Now that its proven that his EVs are not going to do it, hes trying to con investors that he is going to do it with bipedal robots. When that fails, he will find some other technology and scam people into thinking he is the world leader in that. When competitors surpass him in that technology, he will try to con investors into thinking he is going to be the next world leader in another technology.

Eventually the house of cards will fall. Its just a question of when.

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