Ok 
There’s no way Elmo’s ego would allow that. I wonder how well a normal pickup truck would have done. Certainly not worse than the monstrosity.
And there are lots of outlets for a delivery truck like the Rivian one that Amazon uses. The USPS, UPS, FedEx and multiple other companies might buy thousands each, along with similar companies in other countries. Tesla’s sales numbers are low enough that I don’t think they can afford to ignore even niche markets.
The USPS, UPS and FedEx are already putting hybrids and BEVs into their delivery fleets. I was a bit surprised when I saw an EV delivery truck the other day. Most are apparently custom jobs but Ford has picked up a fair amount of business on regular sized vans. My local USPS carrier has been switching up models. Over the last 6 months, I’ve seen the new A/C’ed Mercedes model and these last couple months it’s been one of the EVs.
It’s already a missed opportunity.
The USPS is also going EV which would have been a nice niche market including charging stations but that ship has sailed.
The Roadster and Cybertaxi may well be vaporware as far as investors are concerned, and while the Y-L is a nice if not overdue addition to the lineup, it can hardly justify the stock price.
Frankly, Tesla’s approach to incremental development is refreshing, and probably better for consumers than doing new model launches every 4 or 5 years, BUT those model launches are pretty powerful sales motivators. Good for consumers doesn’t necessarily equate to good for investors, the irrationality of whom this thread is about.
Tesla has one sedan, one SUV (effectively; the Y-L is barely different) and one pickup truck in its fleet. Toyota has something like nine SUV models. Sure, some are niche (whatever that means) but they sell more than two million vehicles each quarter.
I mean, it’s not the only one but it’s pretty damn close to being the only one. According to Motley Fool in 2025, SpaceX launched 2,213 metric tons to orbit in 2025, more than 80% of total global mass-to-orbit for the year. Next on the list is Chinese Aerospace with 262 tons (the article says kilograms but that’s presumably a mistake). Every other provider combined is less than 8% of the market.
But here is how much each company is worth
SpaceX - 2 trillion
United Launch Alliance - 3 billion
Blue Origin - 50-100 billion
Rocket Lab - 50 billion
Arianespace - 500 million
I will never understand it. People value SpaceX so highly because they feel they will do trillions in revenue and make massive profits someday. But there are endless other companies working on doing the same thing. If SpaceX charges more than competitors, people will use competitors. If national governments or private companies don’t want to enrich Musk, they won’t do contracts with him. China is going to prioritize their own companies. European nations probably don’t want to enrich Musk since he supports fascism in Europe. Private companies may face mass protests if they pick SpaceX over a competitor.
I dislike Musk on a personal level, so I want him to fail. I’m just confused why so many investors think his companies will corner multi trillion dollar markets and never face competition.
Does anyone else follow Robert Reich? His hypothesis is that SpaceX is some sort of pump and dump scheme.
Synopsis: Musk and cronies get special shares in the company. Then they hype it up. The initial public offering grabs money from chumps. He’s manipulated the rules of the stock exchange to get the company included in the large index funds. So that those with special shares can sell to the index funds at huge margins without losing control of the company. Musk and others win no matter what.
SpaceX and Tesla are effectively the same as Bitcoin. There’s no intrinsic value but the greater fool theory plus FOMO are powerful.
Pretty much. In a rational system Tesla’s market cap would barely be 100 billion (not 1.2 trillion) and SpaceX wouldn’t be worth anywhere near 2 trillion either.
Musk spent years and years building his brand as a supergenius who is going to corner the market in various multi-trillion dollar new industries.
The reality is in each industry he wants to corner, there are a dozen competitors, of which many provide superior products to his. Also his politics has driven away a lot of support, which is something his competitors don’t have to worry about.
But it’ll probably be another 10 years before the market as a whole catches up to this. That would be my guess. When Musk fails to corner the market in bipedal robots, he will pretend he is going to corner the market in something else which will keep Tesla’s market cap above 1 trillion. He just has to keep the scam going for another 30 years until he dies of old age.
I’m just an idiot with a small portfolio, mostly invested in index funds, not nearly as smart as the wizards running the big hedge funds. And yet, I can recognize that Musk’s companies are vastly overvalued. So just who is snowed by his claims of brilliance?
I think Tesla has at least some intrinsic value. They have inventory and IP reasonably robust sales which must be worth something.
Me too and probably to a certain extent. Then again, I confidently said the same thing about Amazon. BTW, like 15% of Tesla is in large index funds (according to my Google search). We may own a little.
Unlike SpaceX, Amazon didn’t start as a trillion dollar company. If you bought Amazon earlier in its existence, you would have seen substantial growth in the value of your investment as the company’s revenues and profit grew.
This thread is about Tesla.
I didn’t bring up Amazon.
No, I did. In comparison to Tesla. Like I think Tesla is overvalued but I thought the same thing about Amazon and was wrong about that.
I don’t know if anyone still evaluates companies based on price to earnings ratios but I Googled for the P/E ratio for Musk’s companies and some others.
Tesla PE ratio as of July 07, 2026 is 371.48.
SpaceX PE ratio as of July 06, 2026 is 0.00.
Amazon PE ratio as of July 07, 2026 is 34.20.
Toyota PE ratio as of July 08, 2026 is 9.18.
General Motors PE ratio as of July 08, 2026 is 6.75.
Apple PE ratio as of July 07, 2026 is 37.81.
All of which is consistent with the idea that both of Musk’s companies are vastly overvalued.
I’m not comparing Amazon now to Tesla now and other Musk companies are out of the scope of this discussion. Amazon’s p/e was like 600 at one point. I feel like we taking past each other.
I agree that Tesla is overvalued but I’m no expert. I thought the same thing about Amazon over twenty years ago and I was wrong then.
OK, but that’s a separate question of whether SpaceX is overvalued or not (it is).
My point was that Tesla is a distinct minority of the EV market and it’s easy to make the same assumptions about SpaceX but they’re qualitatively different. SpaceX basically is the (non-Chinese state) commercial launch market, every other private player combined is a rounding error compared to them and it’s not irrational for investors to talk about commercial space launch and SpaceX as almost being the same thing.