I never claimed anything close to this. This is delusional. If you’re just comparing driverless taxis then Waymo has a big edge. I’m talking about “self driving” in general.
Sorry on my phone. Taxis aside, and I’ve explained this to you multiple times, no other car is approved for an FSD type point to point diving. Others have been approved for next level cruise control but not for surface streets.
You’re evaluating it from the perspective that Musk has made lots of promises which have not worked out, and he’s also a terrible human being who was the face of disastrous and lethal government action.
Get immoral (or amoral if you sympathize with the billionaire class) about it, and instead view Musk as the person that turned multiple industries from nerd pipe dreams into real world capitalist successes: commercial space launches, satellite internet, and EVs are the biggest. To be clear, the argument isn’t that you believe Musk did it, the argument is that Musk was involved enough to convince the billionaire investment class that he did it.
So, the story goes, Musk has a proven track record of turning dreams into stock prices that shoot the moon. So now Musk is promising the next great thing: maybe AI, an everything app, robotics, self driving, tunnels, whatever. The details don’t matter. None of these big investors care if promises are broken. Lots of promises were broken about Space X, and then it had a trillion dollar IPO. All that matters is number go up, and Musk is the best number go upper.
And if the tunnels thing doesn’t work out, who cares, you only need 1 in 20 investments to pay off. I’m sure we’d all be delighted to have the returns from a portfolio that lost our investment on The Boring Company (or whatever it’s called), but were in on the ground floor of SpaceX and Tesla.
Shades of greater fool, but it’s hard to call the winners the fools (until they end up losing). If you put $50,000 into pets.com you were the fool. If the same day you put $50,000 into Apple, you were a gifted investor, with market foresight.
I am going to try one more time.
Here is what I can do with my Tesla FSD that no other car in the world can do and don’t seem to be close.
-Enter the location of a market and push a button. The car will back out of my garage, drive to the market, park in the parking lot of the market. No assistance from me at all.
-Enter the address of my mom’s house which is 140 miles away from me and push a button. It will back out of my garage, get on the highway, make several highway changes including a toll road, exit the highway, drive to my mom’s house and park out front.
I don’t know or give a shit if this is L3 or L4 or L whatever. This is the capability. No other car company can do this let alone have approval to do this in all of North America, Australia, NZ, China and several European countries. Regulators in all of those countries have approved it.
Taxis are a different story. It’s a very busy space and Waymo is the clear leader.
And in every single one of those cases, you’re driving, legally and ethically. Ergo, the car is not self-driving. But you knew that.
You can’t just say “I don’t care about L3/L4/LWhatever” because the people who count (engineers, regulators, lawmakers) DO care.
eta: Investors evidently don’t care but the whole point of this thread is how irrational investors are.
Yes. You are objectively correct. They happen to call it Full Self Driving (Supervised) and the “(Supervised)” part was added after a lawsuit.
And you are also correct that the Lx is important to some investors which is indeed the subject of the thread.
I am just correcting Wesley’s incorrect characterization of the level of (let’s call it) supervised driving for driver owned cars with someone in the driver’s seat. It is objectively true that in this space, Tesla stands alone and no one has demonstrated anything close. It’s honestly willful ignorance at this point but we may have to see yet another bit of AI slop as a “cite”.
Right, Wesley made a comment about “Self Driving” and you gave your opinion on “Supervised Driving.”
OK. It’s a semantics thing. If he just meant the taxis then it’s correct as I have said. It looked like we were both discussing both. If he really meant only Waymo like taxis then I will concede.
I don’t think that’s what I’m saying, so let me try again. If I invest $100 in a lemonade stand, that’s a loan and I expect to get paid back interest from the profits of the lemonade stand.
If I invest $100 in Wal-Mart, I expect to get paid dividends.
If I invest $100 in Echo’s Tech Company, maybe I expect to have my shares bought out for more money when a bigger fish comes along and swallows it up.
If I invest $100 in Bitcoin, I’m just hoping that I can sell it to some other idiot for more than $100 down the road.
If I invest $100 in MuskCo, which of these scenarios applies? It’s only the last one, because there’s no conceivable mechanism for me to get my investment back + something extra.
And I guess the real travesty is that I don’t need to get any money back, the mere fact that I can say I have $100 in MuskCo means I have a $100 net worth that I can leverage against other things. If everyone collectively decides that MuskCo stock is now worth a billion times as much, I can take out loans against that equity. And who’s deciding that MuskCo is worth a billion times as much? Only a handful of people and they all own a shitload of MuskCo stock. It’s just all a scam.
That’s how I interpreted this:
Self Driving - Tesla is inferior to Waymo and various Chinese companies at this
But I’ll let him clarify I guess.
I’ll take him at his word but he did use Mercedes’s limited L3 as a counter example which also requires supervision.
None, because you didn’t quite list the one that the investors are expecting: Musk works his magic[1] and our $100 turns into a $1000 because the price of the stock has gone up, and as you say, no need to actually sell it. It’s greater fools after it crashes and someone is left holding the bag. It’s a wise investment if it goes up 10 fold and maybe plateaus, but never really comes back down.
The greater idiot might be people like me that bought a Tesla instead of TSLA.
Your bitcoin example is close, but that’s because you believe bitcoin is a scam[2], and that the buyer is seeking the greater idiot. Get in, get out. A true believer might be that greater idiot, but what if the true believer is right?
A data point that may or may not be laughable in the future.
Tesla stock fell almost 15% today and is down almost 30% ytd. SpaceX stock went down 5% and is down almost 27% since the IPO.
Musk has lost half a trillion dollars in net worth since the IPO.
This is the part that isn’t true. According to a quick search, 6 different Chinese companies offer point to point driving.
BYD, XPeng motors, Huawei, NIO, LI Auto, Geely Group
However for now I think this is only approved in China, not in north America or the US.
The issue keeps coming back to this.
Tesla - market cap 1 trillion; P/E ratio 300
BYD - market cap 115 billion; P/E ratio 25
Both companies offer point to point self driving. BYD outsells tesla globally. BYD also doesn’t have a toxic brand image in western nations.
Also not in the many other parts of the world that I listed and you have confirmed that you and I are using the same, possibly flawed, definition of self driving. Do you have any evidence from your “quick search” that Tesla is inferior to the listed Chinese companies? Waymo can’t do this at all.
As a point of calibration, I really like the Out of Spec Reviews channel for what I feel like is rigorous, unbiased reviews of cars across the global spectrum.
They did a full, unedited 1 hour drive in China last year with the Huawei ADAS system inside the Avatr 11 which was considered one of the top ADAS systems in China at the time. They did it in a real owner’s car so no manufacturer involvement. Kyle, the reviewer compares it quite frequently to his own Tesla FSD noting where it performs better/worse with the general conclusion that it’s noticeably more advanced.
The technology layer of ADAS is becoming increasingly commoditized with only the regulatory layer separating out capabilities. Tesla might be able to maintain it’s US dominance for a while due to a ban on Chinese software based cars but globally, it will increasingly be one of many solutions.
I don’t think the growth is exponential, but I see more and more Waymos and in areas farther from the airport lately. I’d say at least triple or maybe quadruple what I was seeing about six months ago.
Of course Waymo isn’t associated with Tesla so its availability doesn’t address the growth of the Tesla robotaxi service.
Yeah, didn’t mean to imply that. I was just saying that simple observation shows Waymo is growing its footprint (tireprint?) fairly strongly.
One difference I see; the Waymo cars are easy to spot, while I think the Tesla robotaxis look just like regular Tesla vehicles.