You can keep repeating that but it’s not going to make it any less silly. The tesla drivers here are from all walks of life and all demographics. Do you have any proof for your bigotry?
Aren’t they supposed to be? that is partly why I started this thread.
Unbelievable that people are still trotting this out. People have been saying this for well over a decade now; it was old hat when the Model 3 came out in 2018, saying it would be a failure because the other automakers already knew how to build cars that people want. GM’s Bolt, which came out slightly before, would crush it.
The reason they haven’t done it yet is because they can’t. If they could, they would have already, because Tesla has demonstrated for years now that EVs can be a profitable, sustainable business. Who wouldn’t want to get into that game? Especially one with just one competitor, compared to the brutal ICE market? If it was that easy, they’d just have moved in and taken over basically any time in the last decade.
The Model 3/Y are extremely practical, “normal” cars that do all the things that “people want a car for”. They aren’t some referendum on Musk or green credentials or anything like that. They’re just excellent cars for the money. Again, the Model Y is the 4th best selling car in the US, and the 1-2 slots are for big honking trucks, so it’s really just second behind the RAV4 (another perfectly normal and practical small SUV) if we’re talking true cars.
We should revisit this thread in 12 months. I’m not a fan of Tesla’s gumdrop styling, but I’d buy a model 3 Performance if it wasn’t for Musk. I’m hoping Lucid (despite the Saudis) succeed just because of the performance and the next level innovation. Our friends with Teslas love them but don’t get great support. Our friend’s with Rivians love them, and get good support, but the glass seems to break. We love our Lyriq, but the tech is not fully baked. But we have a local dealer. TBD?
Lucid and Rivian had better get their acts together with respect to cost. They may be fine cars but it doesn’t matter if they sell for less than what they cost to make, let alone what costs to run the rest of the company. Fisker was another example, but they’re dead now.
Yes, Tesla also lost money early on, but they turned things around. And they had the excuse that no one back then knew how to make a profitable EV. Today, those lessons should have been learned. Even the Saudis will get tired of pumping money into a black hole after a while.
I think you’re mistaken. Daily volume is quoted in shares, so if the daily volume is 100 million, that’s worth around $40 billion at a share price of around $400. The Twitter purchase price of $40 billion is thus equal to about a day of trading, not the entire year.
Tesla has been a fabulous success, more than most people thought possible a decade ago. That bright future that stock prices supposedly reflect wasn’t evident ten years ago, however. Not until 2020 did Tesla stock start zooming upward.
I can’t pin down what changed in 2020 to make the stock price quadruple. This Forbes article discusses the year, but only quotes standard stuff like good sales and profits. Interestingly, at the time it was the stock with the most short sellers, meaning that all the smart money was betting that the price would go down. They were all wrong. Why? I’ve been looking for an answer for four years without finding one.
My opinion is still that Tesla the AOL of 2025. Although it has a factory in China, foreign companies are going to be ousted by the government, directly or indirectly, and Trump’s war on China will only exacerbate that. China is expanding EV sales to the entire world, trying to open up South American and African markets as well as Europe, Mexico, and South Asia. Tesla can’t compete on a world scale. Few governments will support the company as opposition to China instead of favoring their own. Most will lose. Chinese companies scale in a way Tesla can’t.
Tesla’s market cap is irrational. The bubble will burst. Most bubbles burst for reasons that surprise everyone, so no prediction on timing makes any sense today. If I’m wrong, hooray for Musk, that’s good for America. I’m not optimistic.
There’s a lot of stuff that’s happened, and it’s obviously impossible to pinpoint any one thing, but that was roughly when the bears ran out of excuses. The Model 3 faced a tough ramp through 2018-2019, but nevertheless they successfully transitioned into the mass market with a profitable vehicle. Before then you might have reasonably claimed that Tesla would never ship more than niche volumes, or if they did they couldn’t do so profitably, or that someone else would move in and claim the prize first, etc.–but by early 2020 they had pretty clearly pulled it off. And they managed to sustain that with the Model Y.
It’s possible for several things to be true at once, such as that Tesla’s stock bubble will burst, but also that they’ll continue to be successful in several areas, including auto manufacturing and self-driving. Lots of successful companies face a bubble or two in their lifetimes as sentiment changes.
Doesn’t seem too likely. The market already supports a bunch of auto manufacturers. For whatever reason, auto manufacturing just isn’t as prone to winner-take-all as internet stuff, like Google or Facebook. Toyota and Mazda coexist.
Tesla’s revenue puts them as the #8 manufacturer by revenue and #5 by income (ahead of Ford and GM). The manufacturers ahead of them are still depending on ICE income to sustain them. Tesla has demonstrated they don’t need that.
Interesting post. This article says that things like the pandemic made investors feel that EVs are going to dominate the future. I’m not sure why those would be related though.
The inflation reduction act, which increased investment in renewable energy, wasn’t signed until 2022 and Tesla stock had already skyrocketed.
My impression is that the main thing keeping Tesla going in the US is the tariffs on Chinese EVs. China seems to be able to make a cheaper, better EV than Tesla and other US companies, and right now government regulation is the only thing blocking Tesla from meaningful competition. As I mentioned, Chinese EV brands outsell US EV brands. BYD almost matches Teslas EV sales internationally.
My impression is Tesla is going to struggle to compete in the international marketplace for EV sales, and they will only remain dominant in the US either if other US auto manufacturers are unable to produce a quality EV, or Chinese EVs still remain heavily tariffed. Neither is guaranteed.
Tesla sold 1.8 million cars globally in 2023. But of those, 654k were sold in the US and 603k were sold in China.
Tesla Statistics - Updated December 2024 | BuyaCar.
That means the entire global market for Teslas, outside the US and China, is about 550k cars a year.
I think around 6.7 million EVs were sold in china in 2023, of which about ~10% were Teslas.
So if you break Teslas market up into 3 markets
The US
China
The rest of the world
The only reason Tesla is competitive in the US is no other car manufacturer can figure out how make a decent EV and sell it here, also due to the tariffs on Chinese EVs. Basically Tesla is winning in the US due to either government regulations or ineptitude on the part of other car manufacturers. Neither is guaranteed to be an issue in 10 years.
Teslas market share in China is only 10% of the entire car market and it is shrinking. Tesla was 17% of the EV market in China in 2021.
The entire rest of the world’s market for Tesla is lower than the US market for Hyundai.
Tesla sales in China have been fairly steady since 2021. In 2021, Tesla sold 473k teslas in China. In 2022 it was 555k. In 2023 it was 603k.
Meanwhile the number of EVs purchased in China has grown from 2.73 million in 2021 to 5.3 million in 2023. Teslas market share in China is decreasing.
Also again, for people saying the reason is that EVs are the future and that investors are planning for the future of a world dominated by EVs, that doesn’t explain why BYD, which globally sells almost as many EVs as tesla, has a market cap of 107 billion USD while Teslas market cap is 1.37 trillion.
Much of this discussion makes me think of the book by Clayton Christensen that discusses how rare it is for even a leader in some technology (here ICE) to survive a transition to a disruptive technology. I believe he died recently, but I would love to know whether he thought the traditional auto companies have any chance.
Myself I would not put a cent into Musk’s pocket, but then I likely won’t be buying a car again.
It’s because one company is run by one of the, if not the, most powerful men in the world and he has a very very strong cult of personality behind him. There’s essentially no way for Tesla to fail, the CEO will never let it happen.
Tesla may not fail but I expect it will eventually feel the effects of gravity.
Most of the other large automotive manufacturing firms have had their focus elsewhere for the past decade or so (hybrids, from what I can tell, not actively trying to compete with Tesla.
Toyota, for one, explicitly chose to emphasize hybrids over purely battery-powered vehicles.
And Nissan’s been selling the Leaf for almost fifteen years but has been slow to offer any but the one model. Presumably, they’ve figured out the technology, so they could have expanded into other models but chose not to. Likewise, General Motors has had the Bolt for a while.
And other makers are starting to produce EVs, but usually only a model or two.
If I had to guess, it’s a combination of not wanting to be tied to Tesla’s charging network with all the potential risks (what’s stopping Tesla from charging everyone else’s vehicles 1/3 slower because they can?), and the lack of a competing network.
And they’re also on the verge of bankruptcy. Here’s a company that actually took EVs semi-seriously, and had a pretty good first-mover advantage with the Leaf. Why did they not leverage that advantage?
That’s just repeating the problem statement. If they could just move in and crush Tesla at any time, why haven’t they? It’s not because there’s no money in EVs. It might be because they can’t make money in EVs, though.
Tesla built their own network from scratch, mostly with their own money. So why didn’t anyone else?
For the record, that’s a totally obsolete argument now–essentially everyone selling EVs in the US has declared they’ll be moving to the NACS charging standard, which is just the standardized version of the Tesla connector.
So you’re saying that Tesla has some kind of secret sauce that ALL the other automotive manufacturers can’t duplicate? Some of the most wealthy and large companies in the world that have hundreds of millions, if not billions to throw at the problem?
Sorry, I’m not believing that for a minute. If they’re not competing in electric vehicles, it’s because there’s some kind of market condition or reason that is causing them to choose not to.
Tesla isn’t special. Not by a long shot.
What can I say? They’re making good money and other US manufacturers are (mostly) not. It’s not like those other guys are trying to lose money. They’re trying to make money and failing.
I could point to a few specific things, like Tesla’s use of large-scale castings, which combine hundreds of parts that would be welded or glued together into one. It’s not exactly a secret. But no one else is doing it.
Also: Blockbuster, Kodak, Polaroid, Nokia, BlackBerry, Palm, Borders, Xerox, Sears, and so on…