# Why is the 2nd wave leveling off? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [July 30, 2020, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-2nd-wave-leveling-off/916864 "2020-07-30T19:58:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![PoppaSan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/poppasan/32/189_2.png) [@PoppaSan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PoppaSan)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2020, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-2nd-wave-leveling-off/916864/21 "2020-08-02T05:06:58Z")
> [@Monocracy](#): > > > [@PoppaSan](#): > > > > Looks to me like once a state hits about 2% (20k/1m) infected the curve flattens and drops. The states that hit it last spring have stayed relatively low. States that had an initial surge but got nowhere near 2% are currently climbing again. > > … For a counter example, look at Louisiana. They got hit hard first along with the northeast, and they’re getting hit hard now, just like the Republican led states. Louisiana didn’t get to a 2% infection rate until recently, probably mid July or so which is about when they plateaued for this wave. I tried to leave the red/blue crap out of it but since you brought it up, Illinois is also a Democrat state which was hit early and dropped but it has been slowly trending upwards since mid June. It’s curve is similar to Michigan’s, another Dem state. None of this is to say that a state has to hit 2% to “succeed” but it is a trend I noticed at this point. Many states have reduced infection rates long before then, just a matter of keeping cases down. And we need to see if this wave in states near 2% is the final major one. ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2020, 5:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-2nd-wave-leveling-off/916864/22 "2020-08-02T05:21:37Z")
> [@PoppaSan](#): > > Illinois is also a Democrat state which was hit early and dropped but it has been slowly trending upwards since mid June. I’d be interested in seeing Illinois statistics by county and date. Chicagoland is strongly Democratic, but many areas downstate are deep red (Trump received 84% of the vote in Wayne County, for example). They are much less populous counties downstate, but which counties are now driving the trend upwards? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2020, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-2nd-wave-leveling-off/916864/23 "2020-08-02T05:56:14Z")
By region of the state is [here](http://91-divoc.com/pages/interactive-visualziation-of-covid-19-in-illinois/). In _absolute_ numbers it is currently the northeast section of the state (Chicago and its suburbs/exurbs) for cases just because the population there is big. On a per capita basis the northeast region is the lowest for new cases, not quite flat but close. Biggest rise and value is southern, then central and north central neck and neck. You can toggle to look county by county if you like. Cook itself is virtually flat now. Wayne’s per capita case numbers are jumping up. ---
**Author:** ![Banksiaman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/banksiaman/32/3334_2.png) [@Banksiaman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banksiaman)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2020, 8:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-2nd-wave-leveling-off/916864/24 "2020-08-02T08:48:50Z")
The ‘first wave - second wave’ language is ultimately not helpful in conveying the behaviour of the pandemic. Where it has been used historically it seems to refer to the situation where the virus has swept through and caused havoc through a population who were exposed and either survived or carked. The survivors gained sufficient immunity [=current buzz-phrase ‘herd immunity’] to not be immediately re-infected. However the virus mutated sufficiently [antigenic drift] in some part of its spread to overcome such immunity, leaving the entire population which had been through the pandemic susceptible to the new strain in a second wave [or more accurately a back-wash]. From the numbers, the US is still seeing the initial dispersal of the virus into all corners of the country. Arguably, modern communications and knowledge of how to minimise spread have slowed it down and we do not know if there is a worthwhile residual immunity that will come from exposure. I think its still possible that populations will continue to be reinfected by the same strain of the virus, let alone a different strain that develops elsewhere. Hopefully I’m wrong about the solid immunity but reporting to date is ambivalent. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2020, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-2nd-wave-leveling-off/916864/25 "2020-08-02T12:42:58Z")
When people are actually spreading the virus like wildfire, that doesn’t make the news because there’s no data at that point. During this time, people continue to spread the virus even more until the first wave of reported cases comes in. Then the infection rates make news, but no serious illnesses or deaths initially. But after another 5-7 days, people start going into ICUs, the hospital beds fill up, the cameras start rolling, and then the body bags start piling up. This cycle takes about 21-28 days. Through a combination of government policies, business policies, and people just getting understandably concerned, the behaviors that spread the disease begin to change, and so the curve begins to level a little. But bear in mind, in many cases, by “flattening” we’re talking about a slowdown in the growth rate, not an actual decline. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2020, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-2nd-wave-leveling-off/916864/26 "2020-08-03T15:19:08Z")
> [@PoppaSan](#): > > So why didn’t ALL or at least most of the states flatten out at that point. Illinois and Misery have been on a steady trend up the whole month. Without doing a super-deep dive into the exact reporting chain for the numbers, and how they relate to hospitalizations and deaths (some of which can’t be done yet, as those are trailing indicators), as well as overall death rate from all causes for the state, it’s hard to say anything with any certainty. But there’s no reason to believe that individual states couldn’t maintain high standards of reporting, even as the national collection of the data falls off a cliff. I have no reason to believe to believe that Washington (state) has in any way changed its data reporting, for example. If I lived in Florida, I’d be a lot more concerned - and that’s even before testing was shut down due to the incoming hurricane. > [@PoppaSan](#): > > 2% times the undercounted X10 I think the 10x estimate is outdated. While Trump’s theory that all of the increase in cases is caused by testing is clearly false, we _are_ testing more, and the likely percentage of cases that are caught is almost certainly higher now than it was in March. ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2020, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-2nd-wave-leveling-off/916864/27 "2020-08-03T16:58:07Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > I think the 10x estimate is outdated. While Trump’s theory that all of the increase in cases is caused by testing is clearly false, we _are_ testing more, and the likely percentage of cases that are caught is almost certainly higher now than it was in March. I now see there is a separate [thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/10-times-as-many-cases-as-reported-is-this-accurate/917002) on this. It’s somewhat off the rails at the moment, but seems like the right place to continue this conversation, if anyone were so inclined. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-2nd-wave-leveling-off/916864.md?page=1)