# Why is the death rate so much lower now? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [October 17, 2020, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-death-rate-so-much-lower-now/923180 "2020-10-17T14:18:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 2\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2020, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-death-rate-so-much-lower-now/923180/21 "2020-10-18T19:48:53Z")
> [@Jay\_Z](#): > > Those articles were not really all that helpful. Mainly it seems to be people not wanting to go on record. Then ignore them. I also posted actual data, so feel free to stick to that if you’d like to have this discussion. > [@Jay\_Z](#): > > I find it hard to believe that total number of infected was actually higher in April than since then. Why do you find it hard to believe? While we don’t know, I certainly find it believable. Youyang Gu, who is the modeler I most trust, thinks that July 10th was the peak for the actively infected, but his narrow confidence intervals still allow for April to have been higher. Many areas didn’t lock down much until near the end of March and there was almost no testing being done. Over 36% of the US deaths and 28% of the reported cases prior to May 1st were in New York, the place where they were sending sick people into nursing homes. We had a positivity rate that was 4 times what it is now. Was a lot of that simply testing bias? Absolutely! Do we know what the numbers were? Not even close. We still suck at it, but our testing is quite a bit more comprehensive than it was six months ago and our positivity rate is a bit more stable. That is why I picked early June as a starting point. > [@Jay\_Z](#): > > Since I live today, I guess I have to go forward with beliefs, instead of the scientific certainty that will never happen. You do you. I’ll stick to seeing what I can derive from data that is far from perfect, as that’s what we have for now. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 18, 2020, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-death-rate-so-much-lower-now/923180/22 "2020-10-18T20:28:22Z")
FWIW [this resource](https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/), Oxford’s Center for Evidence Based Medicine’s continually updated review about CFR and IFR, has been shared before on this forum before. The section “**Estimating COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rates (IFR)**” is most useful. Bolding below mine. > [@](#): > > The current COVID outbreak seems to be following previous pandemics: initial CFRs start high and trend downwards. … > > … In Swine flu, the IFR ended up as 0.02%, fivefold less than the lowest estimate during the outbreak (the lowest estimate was 0.1% in the 1st ten weeks of the outbreak). In Iceland, where the most testing per capita has occurred, the IFR lies somewhere between 0.03% and 0.28%. > > Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths give a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR somewhere between 0.1% and 0.35%.\* > > Data from COVID deaths in Gangelt, Germany, suggests an IFR of 0.37%. [A random sample of 1,000 residents of Gangelt](https://www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/rheinland/grosse-resonanz-auf-coronastudie-gangelt-100.html) found that 14% were carrying antibodies (2% were detected cases), which led to the lowering of the IFR estimates > > \*Demographic changes in the population will vary the IFR significantly. If younger populations are infected more the IFR will be lower. Comorbidities will have a significant impact to increase the IFR: the elderly and those with ≥ 3 comorbidities are at much higher risk. > > **A single estimate of IFR across all age groups is unhelpful** particularly given the significant changes in risk of death with age. The IFR will also vary substantially based on country demographics such as age. … > > - In those without pre-existing health conditions, and over 70, the data suggests the IFR will likely not exceed 1%. > - Mortality in children seems to be near zero (unlike flu) which is also reassuring and will act to drive down the IFR significantly. _From the start_ determining the true IFR for each cohort, by age, by comorbidities, by other potential confounders like ethnicity, SES, location be it urban vs rural or home vs. in a congregate living facility or country, has been the big bugaboo. Even At NO point has overall CFR been a reasonable measure for that understanding of true IFRs. Even if one accepts that _overall_ there are ten, or twenty, or whatever multiple of actual infections to those diagnosed, one cannot accept that that multiple is consistent across time periods or locations. Cross referencing with positivity rate can help get some handle, so the high positivity rates early on mean that the number of true infection was being particularly underrepresented by the number of diagnosed cases. The groups getting infected the most where is likely the biggest driver of IFR, to the degree that CFR reflects it. > **[COVID-19 Outbreaks in Long-Term Care Facilities Were Most Severe in the Early...](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/press-release/covid-19-outbreaks-in-long-term-care-facilities-were-most-severe-in-the-early-months-of-the-pandemic-but-data-show-cases-and-deaths-in-such-facilities-may-be-on-the-rise-again/)** > > The rate of new COVID-19 cases and deaths in long-term care facilities declined markedly in May and June after the novel coronavirus swept through nursing homes in April, but recent data show the incidence may be on the rise again, according to a new... > [@](#): > > The new analysis of trends in long-term care facilities finds that coronavirus outbreaks in such settings were most severe in the pandemic’s early stages, particularly in the Northeast, with the number of new cases and deaths in long-term care facilities per 100,000 U.S. residents considerably lower in June and July than in April and May. During August, cases and deaths have been rising somewhat. State-level data show notable state-level variation in new cases and new deaths in long-term care facilities, at most times mirroring patterns of new cases and deaths within the state. > > (figures that won’t embed) > > The trend in new cases in long-term care facilities stands in contrast to trends in new cases overall. Nationally, new COVID-19 cases were substantially higher in July and August than in April and May due to the increase in cases among younger people in the summer months. The decline in the rate of new cases and deaths in long-term care settings over time may, in part, reflect measures such as visitor restrictions and more comprehensive testing of residents and staff that were implemented to mitigate the spread of the virus. > > Other key findings of the [analysis](https://connect.kff.org/e2t/tc/VVrjTd5RzzW2W8vM_M04p7s_XW6tdK5Q4fqCnQN4-lLfZ5nxGrV3Zsc37CgPkMW8d0Pgs5YnlpgW3-Gh8r1y-gBtW98dxbp116fSVN74LbsPfWw7HW5p4BVj9lCvz9W1ZqvVn2NG_q4W7LXny53tM5RQW1kqVx19lGWfQW5Vt5YB89cvqKW5TNfs210LCtCW8LMYBQ2W19ghW21QkYS62yMjlW1YrB-r7FTL50W7-0V4C2PZrb6W73F2vk6PqY67W3p8GMY1PpWzgW1zjt492RZFrRW1Sq-LD2F79FNW9g0DFp1x_JG3VHy0BT5tPVQ-W1sNZpk2rvy4MW8FvJwF598TGsW84h8NX2GRzzgW5tL2mq7lWbg6W5LVmkM3jq6FwW543s9_4JMPvHW84BSKK9cgNFhN2dMvgxfp7j_W1STjH55Yy7n5W8HZMZt5M_y4NW3_xvml48YFpSW2Crf6F5kZcVFW97F02R5d0DbJW3Njhwl2-VlfC38y-1) include: > > - Nationally, the share of coronavirus deaths associated with long-term care facilities has stayed relatively constant since May, but the share of cases in such facilities has decreased over time. At the beginning of May, nearly 1 of every 5 coronavirus cases were in long-term care facilities. By mid-August, 1 in every 10 cases were. This decline is likely due to broader availability of testing that contributed to the identification of more cases in the general population nationally in June and July, as well as rising cases among younger people. > - Trends in long-term care COVID-19 cases and deaths vary notably across states. … [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-death-rate-so-much-lower-now/923180.md?page=1)