# Why is the "Peak Oil" bell-curve so widely misunderstood? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 8, 2013, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735 "2013-08-08T19:00:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2013, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/41 "2013-08-09T02:32:59Z")
> [@deltasigma](#): > > edit: also, you may want to read [this](http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-prince-alwaleed-warns-on-fracking-2013-7). So now we have to prepare for instability in the one Arab country the Arab Spring passed by. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![deltasigma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e5b9ba/32.png) [@deltasigma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/deltasigma)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2013, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/42 "2013-08-09T02:42:17Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > So now we have to prepare for instability in the one Arab country the Arab Spring passed by. ☹ OK. Not why I was citing it, but since the futures price for oil is on a steady decline to about $80/barrel through 2021 or so and since the US is projected to potentially be [net exporter by 2030 and export more than the Saudi’s by 2020](http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/12/news/economy/us-oil-production-energy/index.html), we may not give a shit. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2013, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/43 "2013-08-09T02:46:13Z")
> [@deltasigma](#): > > OK. Not why I was citing it, but since the futures price for oil is on a steady decline to about $80/barrel through 2021 or so and since the US is projected to potentially be [net exporter by 2030 and export more than the Saudi’s by 2020](http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/12/news/economy/us-oil-production-energy/index.html), we may not give a shit. I daresay we’ll still give a shit about Israel. Whoever comes to power in SA might decide to finally walk the talk. This, understand, is a country where the Wahabbists are still a powerful sect and don’t think the royal family is Islamist **enough.** ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2013, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/44 "2013-08-09T03:19:22Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Anything but governments. Unless the Republicans are in charge. Then nary a peep. ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2013, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/45 "2013-08-09T03:40:44Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > Then the concept is misleading. Being out of oil implies (or used to imply) that we are out of energy. > > “We will be out of vacuum tubes in 5 years! We need tubes to survive! We’re doomed!” > > “Uhh…we don’t use tubes anymore, we use transistors.” > > “I was right!..and…never mind.” I think this post summarizes the main answer to the OP. For years the peak oil chicken littles have been telling us that the end of American civilization is at hand. They’ve assured us that global oil production can only go down. When fracking and shale oil were mentioned, they responded that such things would never amount to much. Moreover, they put dates on it. Kunstler and Goldstein and others told us, back in the middle of the last decade, that the global peak had arrived and that production would decrease rapidly from here on out. Needless to say, they were entirely wrong. New technology unleashed vast reserves of oil that previously hadn’t been counted as reserves. Production in American has increased. In all their infallible scientific predictions, the peak oil chicken little never predicted such a thing. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2013, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/46 "2013-08-09T03:59:57Z")
I refer you to [The Waste Makers,](http://www.amazon.com/The-Waste-Makers-Vance-Packard/dp/1935439375/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1376019780&sr=8-1&keywords=waste+makers+packard) by Vance Packard, 1960. Predicted we’d run out of every resource he could think of before 1990. > [@](#): > > United States oil production will “peak out” in the present decade [by 1969]… This book predicted shortages of food, water, most raw materials, including timber, copper, aluminum and iron; solar power will be too expensive to anticipate, nuclear power is “a gigantic fizzle,” we will be inundated with crushed cars, junk yards, and piles of cans, not to mention piles of wasteful, starving people. Vance Packard’s future was quite bleak, even in the short term. ---
**Author:** ![Cheshire\_Human](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/5f8ce5/32.png) [@Cheshire\_Human](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheshire_Human)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2013, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/47 "2013-08-09T04:38:59Z")
> [@eg8576736](#): > > **Why is the “Peak Oil” bell-curve so widely misunderstood?** Because it isn’t a **“bell-curve”**. You obviously don’t understand it, either. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2013, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/48 "2013-08-09T04:48:47Z")
> [@eg8576736](#): > > \*\*Why is the “Peak Oil” bell-curve so widely misunderstood? \*\* I’m just a boy whose intentions are good . . . ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2013, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/49 "2013-08-09T04:53:05Z")
> [@Cheshire\_Human](#): > > Because it isn’t a **“bell-curve”**. You obviously don’t understand it, either. It’s bell-shaped. How is it not a bell curve? ---
**Author:** ![deltasigma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e5b9ba/32.png) [@deltasigma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/deltasigma)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2013, 4:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/50 "2013-08-09T04:55:58Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > It’s bell-shaped. How is it not a bell curve? Bell curves are [gaussian distributions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution) that have certain characteristics. Not sure if peak oil does or doesn’t qualify but I’d be surprised if there is any kind of rigorous mathematical underpinning for it ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2013, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/51 "2013-08-09T04:58:51Z")
> [@deltasigma](#): > > Bell curves are [gaussian distributions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution) that have certain characteristics. Not sure if peak oil does or doesn’t qualify but I’d be surprised if there is any kind of rigorous mathematical underpinning for it Well, I’m sure Hubbert knew his math, among other things. ---
**Author:** ![deltasigma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e5b9ba/32.png) [@deltasigma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/deltasigma)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2013, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/52 "2013-08-09T05:00:43Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Well, I’m sure Hubbert knew his math, among other things. Being a scientist doesn’t prevent you from being a quack any more than being a doctor does. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2013, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/53 "2013-08-09T05:04:34Z")
> [@deltasigma](#): > > Being a scientist doesn’t prevent you from being a quack any more than being a doctor does. No, of course not, but peer review does, and Hubbert was no quack. ---
**Author:** ![deltasigma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e5b9ba/32.png) [@deltasigma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/deltasigma)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2013, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/54 "2013-08-09T05:07:54Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > No, of course not, but peer review does, and Hubbert was no quack. Sure, whatever you say. Anyone who can’t foresee the evolution of technology is at least intellectually impaired then because if you can’t see that far ahead, then you’re about as smart as the head of the patent office in the 1800’s who made the asinine comment to the effect that everything had been invented already and his office should be shut down. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2013, 5:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/55 "2013-08-09T05:15:03Z")
> [@deltasigma](#): > > Sure, whatever you say. Anyone who can’t foresee the evolution of technology is at least intellectually impaired . . . **No one** can. Review golden-age SF, or old issues of _Popular Mechanics_ – they’re full of technological predictions which, for one reason or another, never worked out, and almost nobody predicted the Internet. We can predict technological progress will happen so long as the incentives and funding exist, but nobody, not even a scientist or engineer, can predict what courses it will take, because we never know what will work until we’ve tried it. ---
**Author:** ![deltasigma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e5b9ba/32.png) [@deltasigma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/deltasigma)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2013, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/56 "2013-08-09T05:16:37Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > **No one** can. Review golden-age SF, or old issues of _Popular Mechanics_ – they’re full of technological predictions which, for one reason or another, never worked out, and almost nobody predicted the Internet. We can predict technological progress will happen so long as the incentives and funding exist, but nobody, not even a scientist or engineer, can predict what courses it will take, because we never know what will work until we’ve tried it. You really are anxious to get off topic aren’t you. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2013, 5:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/57 "2013-08-09T05:21:03Z")
> [@deltasigma](#): > > You really are anxious to get off topic aren’t you. I’m not going off topic in any sense. ---
**Author:** ![deltasigma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e5b9ba/32.png) [@deltasigma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/deltasigma)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2013, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/58 "2013-08-09T05:23:09Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > I’m not going off topic in any sense. OK. As soon as you provide a cite that shows that Hubert intended the peak oil distribution to have the same properties as a gaussian distribution, I’ll be happy to believe that. edit: Oops, never mind - just found a [cite](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_curve#Shape) for the negative of that proposition > [@](#): > > The prototypical Hubbert curve is a [probability density function](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_density_function) of a [logistic distribution](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_distribution) curve. It is not a [gaussian function](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaussian_function) (which is used to plot [normal distributions](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution)), but the two have a similar appearance. ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2013, 8:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/59 "2013-08-09T08:20:28Z")
> [@eg8576736](#): > > I’m just trying to figure out why conservatives (who would ostensibly conserve by namesake) refuse to accept that oil depletes in a bell curve, and that the easy, cheap oil peaked in America 43 years ago. Is this patriotic blindness or do they truly not accept our geological predicament or the whole concept of physical scarcity? I do not believe the bell curve is descriptive of the process, or alternatively that it is irrelevant. Because 1) the price point at which alternative and abundant energies can be produced is below that which is sufficient for modern society to keep running – if oil increases too much we’ll just switch to something else; 2) we are becoming increasingly more energy efficient, so that it matters less if for instance oil increases in cost, if the amount of oil needed to do the same work decreases on par; 3) we’re not going to be using oil for much longer. Who here thinks he’ll be heating his house with oil in 2025 or buy a gasoline car in 2030? I think it’s great that oil has increased in price, and the ideal scenario will be a slow but steady increase over the next decades. This will offer the best incitement for investment into alternative and better energy forms. Oil, like coal, should be relegated to the Victorian age. ---
**Author:** ![Cheshire\_Human](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/5f8ce5/32.png) [@Cheshire\_Human](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheshire_Human)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2013, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/60 "2013-08-09T14:01:43Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > It’s bell-shaped. How is it not a bell curve? Look up “normal distribution”. “Bell Curve” has a very specific mathematical meaning. It _doesn’t_ just refer to any ‘up then down’ graph. ETA: I see someone responded for me, already. Carry on… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735.md?page=4)