# Why is the "Peak Oil" bell-curve so widely misunderstood? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 8, 2013, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735 "2013-08-08T19:00:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 8\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2013, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/141 "2013-08-14T01:40:51Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#): > > Worse yet, unlike much of Europe, virtually all commercial rail lines are privately owned . . . You mean freight, right? Are there any private passenger rail companies left? Or is it all Amtrak? ---
**Author:** ![deltasigma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e5b9ba/32.png) [@deltasigma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/deltasigma)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2013, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/142 "2013-08-14T02:28:01Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > You mean freight, right? Are there any private passenger rail companies left? Or is it all Amtrak? Round these parts there’s also [SEPTA](http://www.septa.org/service/rail/) (Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority), [NJT](http://www.njtransit.com/tm/tm_servlet.srv?hdnPageAction=BoardAgendaTo) (New Jersey Transit), LIRR owned by MTA (Metropolitan Transportation Authority), etc. I don’t know the details but my impression is that each of those is state sponsored corp. probably funded in large part by the feds. Who maintains the track though is another issue and I have no idea how that works. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2013, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/143 "2013-08-14T19:01:06Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > You mean freight, right? Are there any private passenger rail companies left? Or is it all Amtrak? Yes, I meant freight, which comprises the vast majority of rail use in the US, unlike Europe where passenger rail comprises the majority of use. It’s likely a consequence of the sheer size of the country. Most of our electrified rail is on Amtrak lines on the heavily traveled Northeast Corridor. As I said before, converting to electrified rail is easier when it’s implemented as an infrastructure project by a government (or at least government owned/run) body. That said, diesel locomotives are extremely efficient in terms of sheer amount of weight transported for the least fuel. It may well be that increases in fuel costs whether or not due to supply drive more shipping to slower but less fuel intensive freight rail and water freight over other methods, at least over longer distances (at shorter distances the need to unload trains and get stuff to actual destinations overcome fuel savings). ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2013, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/144 "2013-08-15T23:41:24Z")
> [@](#): > > You don’t even have to go back that far. WTI was below $20 as recently as 2001. Fair enough. I think those who think that oil isn’t a problem are just too rich to notice the cost of living over the last few years. So question is, does efficiency keep up with the escalating cost ? That’s my new thread. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/145 "2013-08-16T05:38:52Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#): > > That said, diesel locomotives are extremely efficient in terms of sheer amount of weight transported for the least fuel. It may well be that increases in fuel costs whether or not due to supply drive more shipping to slower but less fuel intensive freight rail and water freight over other methods, at least over longer distances (at shorter distances the need to unload trains and get stuff to actual destinations overcome fuel savings). I think [diesel electric locomotives](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_locomotive#Diesel-electric) would be an obvious choice of vehicle to electrify. The up-front investment in a set of 8 MW or maybe 16 MW, train-car sized batteries, would be large, but in the long run fuel costs would be slashed and more diesel made available for other purposes. Maybe Peak Oil will be a mess, but I think trains, at least, will be able to side-step it. ---
**Author:** ![Learjeff](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/94ad74/32.png) [@Learjeff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Learjeff)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/146 "2013-08-16T15:31:13Z")
> [@deltasigma](#): > > Bell curves are [gaussian distributions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution) that have certain characteristics. Not sure if peak oil does or doesn’t qualify but I’d be surprised if there is any kind of rigorous mathematical underpinning for it No, it’s the other way around. Gaussian distributions have bell-shaped curves, but so do other things (including actual bells, which are not shaped quite like Gaussians). [/quote] > [@Cheshire\_Human](#): > > Look up “normal distribution”. “Bell Curve” has a very specific mathematical meaning. It _doesn’t_ just refer to any ‘up then down’ graph. From the wikipedia article on “normal distribution”: [quote] The Gaussian distribution is sometimes informally called the bell curve. However, many other distributions are bell-shaped (such as Cauchy’s, Student’s, and logistic). Let’s not assume there’s a mathematical rigor to the expression “bell-shaped curve”. > [@Musicat](#): > > If the USA becomes self-sufficient or a net exporter, that means that all the oil imported today will no longer be imported. Since the US is one of the biggest users of imported oil, this means the world will be awash in a sea of oil that has to go somewhere or will become worthless. Not likely to be a problem thanks to China. > [@Musicat](#): > > But if new discoveries are made, it will change the equation and the estimates. That’s all I’m saying. People who study this problem don’t just look at what we have discovered. They look at what when we discovered it, how much each discovery got us, how much each discovery cost, and what’s the current rate (and cost) of discovery. It’s clear that in the past, discoveries were easier, cheaper, more frequent, and found bigger deposits. As time goes, there is a very marked trend for higher cost to discover, higher cost to extract, lower quantity, and lower yield (and also lower quality oil, or lower energy efficiency, based on the amount of energy it takes to refine versus the energy capacity of the refined product). All these trends show that despite a huge incentive to find new oil, we’re finding less and less of it, and what we’re finding is less valuable. Folks who say “Peak oil is bullshit” either misunderstand the concept, or they really mean “What a lot of people think they mean when they say Peak Oil is bullshit.” The latter is unquestionably true. * * * “Peak Oil” is simply the obvious fact that eventually, oil production rate will begin a terminal decline. Anyone who doubts that isn’t thinking straight. The valid debates concern when and why it happens, and what results. One possible “why” is due to running out. Another is that well before it runs out we find better alternatives. There’s a huge difference between these two! Even if the reason is running out, it won’t necessarily be precipitous, thanks to thinks like fracking, which (as the price rises) become more economic. It’s a valid question to debate, whether fracking will be a very short term band-aid, or a huge extension on the date for when peak oil finally does happen. Meanwhile, the world has a US$5T investment in the oil economy infrastructure. Oil works for our economy for a large number of ways. Any technology to replace it has quite a number of hurdles to overcome, both in terms of reorienting the infrastructure and technical hurdles. Peak Oil is a fact, but as a fact, it’s not particularly useful. So far all predictions have been wrong. If you’re interested in the topic, I recommend **End of Oil** by Paul Roberts. Written in 2005, its predictions are already wrong thanks to fracking. However, the value in the book isn’t the specific predictions, it’s the explanation of the oil economy and possible alternatives (and the challenges these face). Obviously the discussion of alternatives will be somewhat out of date, but the challenges will still be valid. The book treats the capitalist economic issues quite frankly, without any obvious political bias. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/147 "2013-08-16T16:03:32Z")
> [@Learjeff](#): > > People who study this problem don’t just look at what we have discovered. They look at what when we discovered it, how much each discovery got us, how much each discovery cost, and what’s the current rate (and cost) of discovery. And yet, accurate, long-term prediction is quite an inexact science. Imagine that! ---
**Author:** ![MrQwertyasd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9d8465/32.png) [@MrQwertyasd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrQwertyasd)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2013, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735/148 "2013-08-17T19:52:18Z")
> [@](#): > > Why is the “Peak Oil” bell-curve so widely misunderstood? Doesn’t IQ fit a bell curve too ? Maybe that’s a clue. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-the-peak-oil-bell-curve-so-widely-misunderstood/665735.md?page=7)