# Why is this election so close? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 26, 2012, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930 "2012-10-26T13:50:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Twoflower](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/twoflower/32/22_2.png) [@Twoflower](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Twoflower)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/61 "2012-10-26T20:21:39Z")
With the Republicans’ shameless hypocrisy, blatant obstructionism, and embracing of Tea Party principles supported by a full 20% of the electorate, Obama ought to be winning by a landslide, if not a rout. I blame the closeness on Fox news and the right-wing noise machine managing to convince another 25-30% that the BS presented in the OP is true and/or matters. ---
**Author:** ![Lightnin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lightnin/32/180_2.png) [@Lightnin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lightnin)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/62 "2012-10-26T20:29:50Z")
> [@Debaser](#): > > Not strange at all when you consider that MA has five times as many democratic voters than republican ones. So all those democrats elected him… and then turned on him before his term was done? And it wasn’t because of anything he did, it was just because they’re democrats? I mean, seriously, do you even listen to yourself? ---
**Author:** ![Spiff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spiff/32/9852_2.png) [@Spiff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spiff)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/63 "2012-10-26T20:55:22Z")
> [@Lightnin](#): > > So all those democrats elected him… and then turned on him before his term was done? And it wasn’t because of anything he did, it was just because they’re democrats? > > I mean, seriously, do you even listen to yourself? +1 I mean, I’d like to see **Debaser** ’s reply to this. I predict a lot of contortions and twisted logic, but damn if he won’t give it the ol’ college try! ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/64 "2012-10-26T20:59:17Z")
Republican voters should absolutely listen to [unskewedpolls.com’s “spot on accurate” projection for the electoral college.](http://unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_02.cfm) 359 electoral votes for Mitt Romney. Relax. Stay home. You’ve got this in the bag. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/65 "2012-10-26T21:07:53Z")
> [@Lightnin](#): > > So all those democrats elected him… and then turned on him before his term was done? And it wasn’t because of anything he did, it was just because they’re democrats? > > I mean, seriously, do you even listen to yourself? It was a ‘joke’. (R)s are apparently not very good at them, themselves… see Eastwood, Clint. ---
**Author:** ![Catballou](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@Catballou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Catballou)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/66 "2012-10-26T21:09:38Z")
> [@Debaser](#): > > Given his background, experience and skills and having the benefit of being black he would certainly be president already, possibly already done serving both his terms. > > Quote where I said that or retract it. Why do you say such a thing? The BLS and other data on education, employment, upward mobility --the indicators that favor one to run for POTUS(let alone win) do not favor black people. So what do you mean by such a statement? ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/67 "2012-10-26T21:11:52Z")
> [@Catballou](#): > > Why do you say such a thing? The BLS and other data on education, employment, upward mobility --the indicators that favor one to run for POTUS(let alone win) do not favor black people. So what do you mean by such a statement? It’s the “Obama was only elected because he’s black” meme that has had a persistent presence in right-wing circles for several years now. Apparently, “white guilt” guarantees you 270 electoral votes. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/68 "2012-10-26T21:20:19Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > It’s the “Obama was only elected because he’s black” meme that has had a persistent presence in right-wing circles for several years now. Apparently, “white guilt” guarantees you 270 electoral votes. It’s not just that- it’s an extension of the “affirmative action hire” criticism of any successful black person (or other minority). It’s incredibly unfair because it implies that _any_ black person who succeeds in whatever field didn’t do so through hard work and talent, but through benefiting from the system. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/69 "2012-10-26T21:33:01Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Republican voters should absolutely listen to [unskewedpolls.com’s “spot on accurate” projection for the electoral college.](http://unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_02.cfm) 359 electoral votes for Mitt Romney. > > Relax. Stay home. You’ve got this in the bag. When I see something like that, I’ve got to wonder if it’s all just a sophisticated troll. Not because I don’t think Romney has a chance of winning, but even the most ardent Romney supporters are not believing they have a chance at 359 electoral votes. ---
**Author:** ![regginbrow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ba9def/32.png) [@regginbrow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/regginbrow)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/70 "2012-10-26T21:33:19Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Republican voters should absolutely listen to [unskewedpolls.com’s “spot on accurate” projection for the electoral college.](http://unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_02.cfm) 359 electoral votes for Mitt Romney. > > Relax. Stay home. You’ve got this in the bag. [QUOTE=Un Skewed Polls] This projection is expected to be spot-on accurate for predicting the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia and close to the actual popular vote. [/QUOTE] This right here marks this projections system as crap. \*\*EVERY \*\*projection \*\*ever \*\*on \*\*anything \*\*has some uncertainty associated with it, and the fact that this site evidently either doesn’t acknowledge or understand that makes it clear to me that they have no idea what they’re doing. I mean, that’s just basic math. The 538 model, for example, gives a probability distribution of electoral votes as well as the average of all simulations on a given day, and Nate Silver acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in projecting this sort of thing. I’m guessing UnSkewed Polls is not familiar with this. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/71 "2012-10-26T21:39:50Z")
> [@Grumman](#): > > A woman is more than just a uterus with legs. Obama doesn’t have respect for women’s rights either: rights like [the right to a speedy and public trial](http://presstv.com/usdetail/261525.html). But a right to a speedy and public trial is not a woman’s rights issue, _per se_. Just like Romney’s attempt to turn the economy into one isn’t. These are issues for all, and not specific to women. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/72 "2012-10-26T21:40:59Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > And if Romney were black, where do you think he would be? > > Interesting how it’s only the race of black people that’s interesting. White people? No benefit from their race whatsoever. Not worth discussing. White people don’t have race. White people are the default. It’s what comes from the factory. Color has to be added later in the process. ---
**Author:** ![Dallas\_Jones](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dallas_jones/32/3277_2.png) [@Dallas\_Jones](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dallas_Jones)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/73 "2012-10-26T21:59:46Z")
> [@Uncle\_Jocko](#): > > Amen to this. Nixon was more of a socialist than Obama is … he enacted wage and price controls, for Lenin’s sake! And the right is bitching about _Obama_ being the socialist? Kee-rist … > > As to the question about why are things so close: I think it has everything to do with the economy. If things had turned around on a dime after the Great Recession, and people felt better about their jobs and their income, Romney would be polling around 35%. Since people aren’t feeling that great about things, it pulls Obama’s numbers down. > > Now, I’m explicitly not blaming Obama for this. Most people have no idea how close we came to financial ruination in 2008-09. A depression was very, very likely, and I do believe the stimulus and some other government actions helped to prevent that. With the financial situation that dire, of course it’s going to take a number of years to turn things around (it took a world war to bring us out of the 1930s Depression, after all). And things are starting to improve, it’s just slow. > > Romney is not a good nominee for the Republicans. For whatever reasons, most of the GOP’s top echelon decided to sit this one out. I mean, look at the circus we had during the primaries … Bachmann? Gingrich? Perry? Santorum? Cain? These are the Not Ready for the Oval Office players here. Romney was all that was left. > > Considering the economy, as a liberal-leaning Democrat, I’m glad things worked out this way. A better candidate than Romney would likely have a substantial lead over Obama right now. But them’s my answers as to why it’s close - the perception of the economy is dragging Obama’s numbers down, but Romney isn’t a good enough candidate to take much advantage of that. This post hits the nail right on the head. Obama’s problem is the economy, the economy… He is right that it is steadily improving and we should expect slow, positive results. But what the voting public wants is bold ideas, plans, some of that ‘hope and change’ he talked about when elected the first time. They do not want to hear, ‘wait and see’. He has offered little in the way of new ideas for his next term. He is right but that doesn’t win elections. And Romney was just the last GOP candidate standing after all the other group of crazies stuffed their feet in their mouths. Had he been a stronger candidate earlier in the election cycle, and offer a real alternative, this would not even be a close race. The election cycle was ripe for a strong Republican to challenge the meager results of the incumbant Democrat. But there wasn’t anyone interested. I am a moderate Republican, yes we still exist. ---
**Author:** ![fumster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9c0ed/32.png) [@fumster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fumster)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/74 "2012-10-26T23:02:47Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > Bwahahahaha! Because if Romney were black, he’d also have a dad who had been governor, right? He’d almost certainly have the same socioeconomic background that privileged his upbringing, right? And until 1978 neither he or his father could have hold leadership positions in the LDS church if they were black. Everything about his life would have been different. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/75 "2012-10-26T23:07:28Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > White people don’t have race. White people are the default. It’s what comes from the factory. Color has to be added later in the process. You’re my doper crush. (Don’t tell **twickster**.) ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2012, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/76 "2012-10-26T23:44:11Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > White people don’t have race. White people are the default. It’s what comes from the factory. Color has to be added later in the process. Hey, man, I don’t see race! (Seriously, yours is the kind of post that makes me wish we had a “Like” button) ---
**Author:** ![Uncle\_Jocko](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uncle_jocko/32/2932_2.png) [@Uncle\_Jocko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uncle_Jocko)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/77 "2012-10-27T02:25:53Z")
> [@regginbrow](#): > > The 538 model, for example, gives a probability distribution of electoral votes as well as the average of all simulations on a given day, and Nate Silver acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in projecting this sort of thing. I’m guessing UnSkewed Polls is not familiar with this. [Unskewedpolls.com](http://Unskewedpolls.com)’s margin of error: -4.6%! Predictions guaranteed so true they’ll happen twice! ---
**Author:** ![What\_the](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f4b2a3/32.png) [@What\_the](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_the)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/78 "2012-10-27T02:35:11Z")
Allow me … Four years ago a clean and articulate black guy who had nothing to do with the war sounded good to alot of voters. This year he has everything to do with the war and we already elected one clean and articulate black guy…don’t need another. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/79 "2012-10-27T03:49:25Z")
> [@What\_the](#): > > This year he has everything to do with the war and we already elected one clean and articulate black guy…don’t need another. Heh. At the point where you think Obama has a secret twin, I can’t even get all mad at your attempt at racism. It’s just too cute. We do, of course, need another slick white dude in office. Can’t get enough slick white dudes! ---
**Author:** ![Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spectre_of_pithecanthropus/32/12343_2.png) [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spectre_of_Pithecanthropus)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/80 "2012-10-27T04:05:03Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Most of its individual requirements are quite popular, and overall it’s grown in popularity from the nadir about a year ago. I know the individual mandate is unpopular, but then so is paying your taxes and car registration. Nobody enjoys doing those things, either. > [@](#): > > A joke? No one laughed, and it seemed pretty clear he was making an ideological point to that audience. I think it’s one of the most honest and from-the-heart things he’s said all campaign. Presumably Romney doesn’t drink alcohol, but the “47 percent” remark does seem almost like a case of “in vino veritas”, in that it came out when his guard was down. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930.md?page=5)