# Why is this election so close? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 26, 2012, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930 "2012-10-26T13:50:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/81 "2012-10-27T05:14:46Z")
It’s not just this election. We haven’t had a lopsided or landslided presidential election since 1996; the three since then have all been squeakers. Why is that, I wonder? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/82 "2012-10-27T05:22:21Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > It’s not just this election. We haven’t had a lopsided or landslided presidential election since 1996; the three since then have all been squeakers. Why is that, I wonder? Information saturation causing polarization. And other -tion words. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 5:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/83 "2012-10-27T05:31:36Z")
Why is it close? The economy sucks and unemployment is high. If the Republicans ran a good candidate then historically Obama would be going down in flames now. Instead it’s close, with Obama having the edge. Perfect storm of both sides trying to stave defeat from the slavering jaws of victory, with the Pubs just being better at losing this time around. ---
**Author:** ![waterj2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/858c86/32.png) [@waterj2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/waterj2)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/84 "2012-10-27T05:42:10Z")
> [@Debaser](#): > > Not strange at all when you consider that MA has five times as many democratic voters than republican ones. I don’t know where it was during Mitt Romney’s term, but it was a 14%–45.3% split in 1982 to a 11.3%–36.5% split in 2011, with obviously lot of independents ([cite](http://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2011/03/percent_of_registered_democrat.html)) So, more like three times as many. ---
**Author:** ![Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/son_of_a_rich/32/5439_2.png) [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Son_of_a_Rich)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/85 "2012-10-27T05:55:51Z")
Wait…are people actually saying that it’s to a candidate’s advantage to be black? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 6:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/86 "2012-10-27T06:05:13Z")
> [@Son\_of\_a\_Rich](#): > > Wait…are people actually saying that it’s to a candidate’s advantage to be black? Isn’t it obvious? Why, if you look at the past few years, ALL of our presidents have been black! ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 6:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/87 "2012-10-27T06:32:12Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > It’s not just this election. We haven’t had a lopsided or landslided presidential election since 1996; the three since then have all been squeakers. Why is that, I wonder? How is a 7% margin nationwide a “squeaker”? ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 7:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/88 "2012-10-27T07:08:45Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > It’s not just this election. We haven’t had a lopsided or landslided presidential election since 1996; the three since then have all been squeakers. Why is that, I wonder? Obama spanked McCain. I’m not sure what the technical definition of “landslide” is, but the 2008 election wasn’t even close. ---
**Author:** ![Punoqllads](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d2c977/32.png) [@Punoqllads](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Punoqllads)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/89 "2012-10-27T07:36:25Z")
> [@What\_the](#): > > Four years ago a clean and articulate black guy who had nothing to do with the war sounded good to alot of voters. What parallel dimension did you just arrive from? This one had an Obama who said he would get us out of Iraq and project force into Afghanistan, and who would be willing to project force into Pakistan to get bin Laden if necessary. Also, the [alot](http://hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.com/2010/04/alot-is-better-than-you-at-everything.html) is a better historian than you. ---
**Author:** ![What\_the](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f4b2a3/32.png) [@What\_the](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_the)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/90 "2012-10-27T17:39:01Z")
> [@What\_the](#): > > Allow me … > > Four years ago a clean and articulate black guy who had nothing to do with the war sounded good to alot of voters. > > This year he has everything to do with the war and we already elected one clean and articulate black guy…don’t need another. Who’s the racist? Me? Joe Biden?? Those who voted for him last time but aren’t so inclined this time? … or is it just something you wanted to bring up before somebody else did. I knew it was coming. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/91 "2012-10-27T17:40:34Z")
> [@What\_the](#): > > Who’s the racist? Me? Joe Biden?? Those who voted for him last time but aren’t so inclined this time? > > … or is it just something you wanted to bring up before somebody else did. I knew it was coming. You appear to be talking to yourself. Or I don’t understand. ---
**Author:** ![Amateur\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/59ef9b/32.png) [@Amateur\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Amateur_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/92 "2012-10-27T18:08:14Z")
> [@Dallas\_Jones](#): > > …what the voting public wants is bold ideas, plans, some of that ‘hope and change’ he talked about when elected the first time. I think it’s even more that someone else’s good fortune, even if it represents some large portion of the population, and a general trend upward (or steady-ward) that hasn’t lifted their boat is meaningless. “I’m still out of work, my BiL is still losing his house, the industry across town is still shuttered, so things suck.” Hard to argue with, but harder still to pull political traction against. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/93 "2012-10-27T22:21:54Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I don’t understand. Once you get to know him, you’ll realize there’s never been a more perfectly-chosen username. (Except for mine, of course, if you know your Le Guin) ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/94 "2012-10-27T22:34:11Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Obama is very charismatic. Really? ---
**Author:** ![aldiboronti](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9fc348/32.png) [@aldiboronti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aldiboronti)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/95 "2012-10-27T22:50:55Z")
The ‘charismatic’ Obama’s job approval rating has dropped by [7 points in the last 3 days.](http://cnsnews.com/news/article/gallup-obamas-job-approval-drops-7-points-3-days) ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2012, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/96 "2012-10-27T22:52:00Z")
> [@aldiboronti](#): > > The ‘charismatic’ Obama’s job approval rating has dropped by [7 points in the last 3 days.](http://cnsnews.com/news/article/gallup-obamas-job-approval-drops-7-points-3-days) That’s a single poll. It’s a much better idea to look at all the polls together. ---
**Author:** ![Stately\_Greek\_Automaton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Stately\_Greek\_Automaton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stately_Greek_Automaton)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 5:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/97 "2012-10-28T05:30:09Z")
> [@regginbrow](#): > > This right here marks this projections system as crap. \*\*EVERY \*\*projection \*\*ever \*\*on \*\*anything \*\*has some uncertainty associated with it, and the fact that this site evidently either doesn’t acknowledge or understand that makes it clear to me that they have no idea what they’re doing. I mean, that’s just basic math. > > The 538 model, for example, gives a probability distribution of electoral votes as well as the average of all simulations on a given day, and Nate Silver acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in projecting this sort of thing. I’m guessing UnSkewed Polls is not familiar with this. Not that I disagree with your ultimate conclusion, but I think the mark of that being utter crap are the ridiculous predictions. Romney carries NC with 60% of the vote while Obama carries IL with 53%? Oregon, New Mexico and Michigan going to Romney? Bizarro World stuff, that is. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 6:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/98 "2012-10-28T06:04:32Z")
> [@Justin\_Bailey](#): > > Obama spanked McCain. I’m not sure what the technical definition of “landslide” is, but the 2008 election wasn’t even close. By historical standards it was a fairly average margin of victory. The ultra-close elections of 2000 and 2004 were the unusual ones. ---
**Author:** ![Raygun99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@Raygun99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raygun99)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 6:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/99 "2012-10-28T06:08:44Z")
> [@Stately\_Greek\_Automaton](#): > > Not that I disagree with your ultimate conclusion, but I think the mark of that being utter crap are the ridiculous predictions. Romney carries NC with 60% of the vote while Obama carries IL with 53%? Oregon, New Mexico and Michigan going to Romney? Bizarro World stuff, that is. The true laugher is his 55-43 prediction for Hawaii. Obama won with **seventy-one point eight five** per cent of the vote in 2008 there. ---
**Author:** ![What\_the](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f4b2a3/32.png) [@What\_the](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_the)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/100 "2012-10-28T15:47:14Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > You appear to be talking to yourself. Or I don’t understand. Yup… a drive-by post that I messed up . I’ll fix it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930.md?page=6)