# Why is this election so close? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 26, 2012, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930 "2012-10-26T13:50:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![What\_the](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/f4b2a3/32.png) [@What\_the](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_the)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/101 "2012-10-28T15:48:23Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > Heh. At the point where you think Obama has a secret twin, I can’t even get all mad at your attempt at racism. It’s just too cute. > > We do, of course, need another slick white dude in office. Can’t get enough slick white dudes! Who’s the racist? Me? Joe Biden?? Those who voted for him last time but aren’t so inclined this time? … or is it just something you wanted to bring up before somebody else did. I knew it was coming. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/102 "2012-10-28T16:48:13Z")
> [@Dallas\_Jones](#): > > I am a moderate Republican, yes we still exist. Yes, I believe the term for folks such as you is now “Democrats.” ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/103 "2012-10-28T18:29:35Z")
> [@Raygun99](#): > > The true laugher is his 55-43 prediction for Hawaii. Obama won with **seventy-one point eight five** per cent of the vote in 2008 there. Little polling is being done in Hawaii, but what polls have been done show a likely outcome of about 60-65% for Obama. The 2008 result was an aberration; Hawaii is reliably Democratic but not that extreme, and won’t be that extreme again. So it will be closer than 2008, but not THAT close. 60-40 Obama would, IMHO, be an acheivement for Romney. So, basically, that’s about what this site is; a really good election for Romney PLUS five percent. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2012, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/104 "2012-10-28T23:10:30Z")
> [@What\_the](#): > > Who’s the racist? Me? Joe Biden?? Those who voted for him last time but aren’t so inclined this time? > > … or is it just something you wanted to bring up before somebody else did. I knew it was coming. This is, I take it, the fixed post? heh. ---
**Author:** ![ultrafilter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/3d9bf3/32.png) [@ultrafilter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultrafilter)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/105 "2012-10-29T00:36:36Z")
> [@What\_the](#): > > Who’s the racist? Me? Joe Biden?? Those who voted for him last time but aren’t so inclined this time? > > … or is it just something you wanted to bring up before somebody else did. I knew it was coming. > [@What\_the](#): > > Who’s the racist? Me? Joe Biden?? Those who voted for him last time but aren’t so inclined this time? > > … or is it just something you wanted to bring up before somebody else did. I knew it was coming. Is this one of those spot the difference games? I was never very good at those. Edit: Click on the little arrows to see that I didn’t quote the same post twice. ---
**Author:** ![Debaser](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/3da27b/32.png) [@Debaser](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Debaser)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/106 "2012-10-29T12:42:56Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > Bwahahahaha! Because if Romney were black, he’d also have a dad who had been governor, right? He’d almost certainly have the same socioeconomic background that privileged his upbringing, right? > > I didn’t say “leave everything else the same and change his skin tone,” because that’d have nothing to do with how race actually works. You are unhinged here. You said change his race. So that’s all I responded to. You didn’t add anything about his socioeconomic background so I took the logical step of assuming it would be unchanged. If you want to suggest some sort of hypothetical where he was born in a gutter then we can discuss it. > [@](#): > > I implied that you didn’t think it was worth discussing. Of course I can’t quote where you discussed it. Don’t be ridiculous. So you just made it up and attributed it to me. It’s good you at least admit this. ---
**Author:** ![Debaser](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/3da27b/32.png) [@Debaser](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Debaser)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/107 "2012-10-29T12:45:02Z")
> [@Lightnin](#): > > So all those democrats elected him… and then turned on him before his term was done? And it wasn’t because of anything he did, it was just because they’re democrats? > > I mean, seriously, do you even listen to yourself? No. That’s not what I said. I’m listening to you, as you are the one who said it. Despite the fact that Romney was Governor of MA, it isn’t possible that MA will go Republican in the presidential election because Democrats have an overwhelming numbers advantage in the state. It’s a very simple concept, and not one that anyone with any knowledge of politics would debate. ---
**Author:** ![Debaser](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/3da27b/32.png) [@Debaser](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Debaser)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 12:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/108 "2012-10-29T12:49:10Z")
> [@Catballou](#): > > Why do you say such a thing? The BLS and other data on education, employment, upward mobility --the indicators that favor one to run for POTUS(let alone win) do not favor black people. So what do you mean by such a statement? If all other factors were the same, Romney would certainly win the general election if he were black. He’s got the votes of 49% of the electorate that he has now, plus he just needs a few additional undecided voters and a slice of the black vote. The reason so many heads are exploding when you guys see my posts is that you assume that when we discuss a hypothetical race change of someone that this also means a huge change in their background or upbringing or education. I’m not. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/109 "2012-10-29T12:58:27Z")
> [@Debaser](#): > > If all other factors were the same, Romney would certainly win the general election if he were black. He’s got the votes of 49% of the electorate that he has now, plus he just needs a few additional undecided voters and a slice of the black vote. I think this is totally false. If being black were a net benefit, politically, wouldn’t we have a lot more black senators (and presidents, for that matter)? ---
**Author:** ![Debaser](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/3da27b/32.png) [@Debaser](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Debaser)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/110 "2012-10-29T13:53:13Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I think this is totally false. If being black were a net benefit, politically, wouldn’t we have a lot more black senators (and presidents, for that matter)? Since so many blacks are born to single mothers and poverty and have access to less education it’s not surprising that there aren’t many black senators. That’s due to those factors, though, not some hindrance to obtaining office due to their race. ---
**Author:** ![enomaj](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/59ef9b/32.png) [@enomaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enomaj)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/111 "2012-10-29T13:59:14Z")
Debaser, you don’t think a lot of shit would change if Romney was Black? First he’d be a Black Republican. They don’t get an awful lot of support among Black voters. Second, Romney has used a number of dog whistles in his campaign. Black Republicans who would say those same things would get even less support. Third, a the surge in support among white voters after the debates might never have happened. Fourth, he would suffer from the Michael Steele problem, i.e., we know you got picked solely to garner Black votes without having to support issues Blacks care about. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/112 "2012-10-29T14:01:55Z")
> [@Debaser](#): > > Since so many blacks are born to single mothers and poverty and have access to less education it’s not surprising that there aren’t many black senators. That’s due to those factors, though, not some hindrance to obtaining office due to their race. Wait. If blacks have different circumstances of birth and education than whites, that IS due to race, and it’s obviously a hindrance. That’s precisely what the issue is with regard to race: systemic disadvantages to one group, which have the net effect of systemic advantages to another. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/113 "2012-10-29T14:04:22Z")
> [@Debaser](#): > > Since so many blacks are born to single mothers and poverty and have access to less education it’s not surprising that there aren’t many black senators. That’s due to those factors, though, not some hindrance to obtaining office due to their race. So is being black a benefit just for a politics, or also for other careers? ---
**Author:** ![Debaser](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/3da27b/32.png) [@Debaser](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Debaser)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/114 "2012-10-29T14:06:09Z")
> [@Dr.Drake](#): > > Wait. If blacks have different circumstances of birth and education than whites, that IS due to race, and it’s obviously a hindrance. That’s precisely what the issue is with regard to race: systemic disadvantages to one group, which have the net effect of systemic advantages to another. This is the crux of the matter. I disagree that race is the reason for these differences. The black people that choose to get married before they have kids, for instance, have income equality with whites. If black people choose to get married, get educated, and achieve then anything is possible. The Obama’s are an example of this, as is Colin Powell, Clarence Thomas Condoleeza Rice and countless more. The fact that most don’t is unfortunate, but hardly a hindrance that cannot be overcome. ---
**Author:** ![Debaser](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/3da27b/32.png) [@Debaser](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Debaser)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/115 "2012-10-29T14:08:15Z")
> [@enomaj](#): > > Debaser, you don’t think a lot of shit would change if Romney was Black? First he’d be a Black Republican. They don’t get an awful lot of support among Black voters. You make some good points. However, he wouldn’t need much. He’s just got to turn that 49% into 51%. ---
**Author:** ![Debaser](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/3da27b/32.png) [@Debaser](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Debaser)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/116 "2012-10-29T14:11:23Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > So is being black a benefit just for a politics, or also for other careers? Again, all other things being equal, yes of course it is. Race based preferences is college admissions benefits basically all careers. Preferences in hiring, especially by the federal government also benefit a lot of careers that don’t require a degree. [Huffington Post](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/06/07/black-unemployment-government-jobs_n_872168.html) > [@](#): > > Nearly 21 percent of the nation’s working black adults hold government jobs, as compared to some 17 percent of white workers and 15 percent of Latinos. Public agencies are the single largest employer for black men, and the second most common for black women. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/117 "2012-10-29T14:23:57Z")
> [@Debaser](#): > > Again, all other things being equal, yes of course it is. Race based preferences is college admissions benefits basically all careers. Preferences in hiring, especially by the federal government also benefit a lot of careers that don’t require a degree. So what you’re saying is that, everything else being equal, being black makes life easier in the US? ---
**Author:** ![Debaser](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/3da27b/32.png) [@Debaser](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Debaser)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/118 "2012-10-29T14:25:49Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > So what you’re saying is that, everything else being equal, being black makes life easier in the US? Why don’t you take a turn saying what you think rather than continually asking me questions. ---
**Author:** ![enomaj](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/59ef9b/32.png) [@enomaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enomaj)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/119 "2012-10-29T14:34:48Z")
> [@Debaser](#): > > You make some good points. However, he wouldn’t need much. He’s just got to turn that 49% into 51%. But White Mitt was already polling at 0% among black voters. Flipping going 49 to 51 nationally means he would need about 16% of Black voters. And Republicans were never in love with White Mitt so is Black Mitt gonna get the same level of support? The guy who wants to put the White back in the Whtehouse is gonna sit out a contest between two Black candidates . ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930/120 "2012-10-29T14:53:02Z")
> [@Debaser](#): > > Why don’t you take a turn saying what you think rather than continually asking me questions. I think I’ve already made it clear, but I think this is an assumption of many white people in the US- that being black makes things easier. And I think it’s completely, ridiculously false. There’s still discrimination in the system (especially in the justice system) and there’s still more mundane types of discrimination (hiring, rental property, etc). It’s better than it was 20 years ago, and better than 50 years ago, but it’s still here. According to [this](http://www.pressherald.com/news/nationworld/in-focus-racism-in-america_2012-10-28.html), a majority of Americans still express anti-black attitudes. I think your assumption is completely wrong. It also plays a big part in explaining why the Republican party is utterly failing to attract more than a tiny portion of black voters (and a decreasing number of other minorities). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-is-this-election-so-close/638930.md?page=7)