Trump is a aspirationally transactional creature who admired Putin for his own ability at transactionalism and autocratic strength up until the point that he was unwilling to ‘make a deal’ to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine as he promised. He’s having similar issues with ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu because in neither situation does the foreign leader need anything that Trump can offer. Trump is actually a terrible negotiator because he doesn’t understand that ‘transactions’ require an agreement for concessions on both sides, and seems to believe that just being a part of ‘Autocracy, Inc’ should give him enough pull to get what he wants.
I think we are all missing the mark. Trump came into his second term expecting to be treated as a king. Putin, like the rest of the world has told him to fuck off. Part of it is not being afraid of repercussions, but mostly its not being ass kissed enough.
Could be that he’s simply paying lip service to those polls. IOW: yet again running his mouth with zero plans to actually do anything other than repeat “two weeks”.
I’m certainly hoping that Trump continues moving towards normal and reasonable Republican policy, like pushing back on conquesting dictators.
But I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s taking the usual politician maneuver of playing good for long enough to get out of the fire (e.g. with the Epstein issue and suddenly dropping all aid for Ukraine), and then slowly migrating back to doing the badness, again.
I don’t believe Trump ever feared that Putin would reveal kompromat on him, or even that Trump thought Putin would make him richer (through real-estate deals or what have you).
I think Trump was genuinely enthralled by Putin being the biggest bully on the Eurasian block. Trump admired that and wanted the approval of that Biggest Bully. (Trump has Daddy Issues—and even though Putin is the younger man, Trump looked up to him and craved his good opinion.)
Now Putin isn’t quite so successful a bully–he’s mired in a war that has no clear ending. And Putin has (as mentioned by others) made Trump look bad–he’s shown that Trump’s boasting about his own power and skills were bullshit.
And Putin’s failure to end his war means Trump’s chance at a Nobel Peace Prize is that much smaller.
Put it all together, and Donald is one disillusioned fan-boy.
He probably tells himself that he’s winning every negotiation he’s in, and believes that that’s why he’s in them. Think of him like an addicted gambler. He may think he’s doing it to win, but he’s just hooked on the action.
I would support a Nobel Peace prize for Trump if he can get Russia to pull back to the internationally recognized borders. I don’t see it happening, but even a someone as corrupt as Trump deserves acclaim if they reverse a territorial expansionist.
Putin also can’t be seen as being ‘weak’ by conceding to a foreign leader’s demands (and especially not Trump who he has actually mocked). Indeed, the entire reason that Putin engaged in this bit of inadvisable military adventurism was to distract from domestic issues and engender a sense of nationalism, and now that it has turned out to not be the simple few week campaign conquer Kyiv he promised he can’t just come to some kind of negotiated settlement without showing some clear achievement, and right now they have pretty negligible gains beyond the already contested territories.
I had noticed after the Pandemic ended that, in videos, Putin came across as suddenly rather fat and “soft”. Almost immediately following, he attacked Ukraine, which really felt like he’d just shot himself in the foot. I have no way of proving it, but my impression is that he self-isolated a little too hardcore and, besides getting pudgy, he also got a bit weird and talked himself into a bad decision.
Since then, he’s slimmed up and started making smarter moves again. He’s still holding nearly all of the territory that he grabbed, the economy of his country is still solid, he hasn’t suffered any loss in political might, etc. For as much as he may have briefly gotten himself into a bad headspace, my read would be that he’s gotten back on his game.
Trump ain’t hard to read, nor hard to manipulate. Even if Russia did have something on Trump but it’s all been lost or invalidated by now, I could easily see Putin figuring out some new way to manage him.
Note that Trump is not ordering the US to supply weapons to Ukraine. He is permitting other NATO nations to buy American weapons and for them to supply them to Ukraine. The US is not providing direct support in this case.
In Trump’s 1st term he put sanctions on the new Russian natural gas pipeline and warned Europe to build LNG sea ports so they weren’t at the mercy of Putin.
It was the next President who removed those sanctions.
I think that Trump believed that Putin was as transactional and obsessed with money as he is. Trump cannot understand that everyone does not think the way he does. Putin encouraged that belief to string him along. It’s finally getting through to him that he was being played. It’s probably really pissing him off since he doesn’t believe that anyone has ever played him before. It would be interesting if he started wondering about how the other dictators treat him. But I wouldn’t count on it. He’s still a moron.
Didn’t the change happen right after a phone call between the two? Putin probably told Trump something that hurt his feelings, so now he’s throwing a temper tantrum.
Putin had to have some kind of real kompromat on trump. However, after the Supremes rolled over a year ago, recently on the birth right case, and the abdication of congress, even if Putin show conclusive proof of collusion and winning 2016 for trump, trumpy will remain President.
Also, a tale as old as time, strongmen cannot abide rivals. Putin can be mired in Ukraine for as long as US/Europe supply enough weapons and aid to Ukraine. Whilst Putin has nukes, Russian military has been degraded significantly, and while could still cause mischief in Europe, won’t be marching into Berlin again.
Strongmen also are compelled to take out an oligarch or three as examples of “who da alpha male now, bitch?” A couple of broligarchs serve an identical purpose. Elon has been shitcanned. He’s also too arrogant to understand that the donald just might decide to show the richest man in the world what the most powerful man in the world can do. National security threats to take over SpaceX & StarLink, expropriation of X under truth social, sic the IRS Delta team to dig up something and put Elon in the Supermax.
I think the simplest explanation is that Putin didn’t have anything on Trump; Trump liked him because he was envious of Putin. Trump is also very stupid and believed the bullshit that Putin told him + Putin financed a lot of right wing propaganda in the US. Trump is stupid + media bubble + want to be Putin = go along with what Putin wants.
So what changed? Well, getting harder and harder to listen to Putin wanting the war to end and then watching him attack civilians. When Biden was in office, Trump could think it was due to poor negotiating or whatever.
Also, lets see what Trump actually does. If it’s just letting NATO buy air defense to ship on, that’s better than before, but also not a huge deal.
Granted, agreeing to $$$ell weapons (though third parties) is a welcome course correction from a president who was known to have reservations about continuing to support Ukraine militarily… but announcements and actual deeds are two different things. Trump does the first one real well, especially as a means of delaying/underperforming on the second.
Unmentioned in this article is that the White House wants full control over sanction waivers in the “bipartisan proposal advancing in the Senate to impose harsh new sanctions on Russia,” potentially giving Trump more power to delay. Also worth noting, Russia was spared tariffs on “Liberation Day” back in April.
I’m seeing a framework that allows Trump to appear to be pushing back on Russia without actually doing so very much.
I’m not convinced Putin has anything on Trump. But if he does, it would be the type of thing that would make Trump a target for those who have the means to get to him.
Keeping in mind that I also think all of the Epstein Files banter is a bunch of hullaballoo, if such a thing as the “incriminating” Epstein Files does exist, it’s a virtual certainty that Putin is somehow involved.
He values the help Putin’s team gave him in getting elected, he values the Russian banks, and he values the chaos that Putin has injected into American society.
Occam’s Razer tells me that Trump is having one of those “he’s trolling you” moments,
But if he actually does have a concrete motive, something tells me that Trump has realized he no longer needs Putin to take out loans, to get elected or to spread chaos.
Keep in mind that Trump doesn’t negotiate. He extorts. And that power is what he gets off on. I truly think that that is the primary thing that drives him.
Like the others said, Putin is making Trump look bad, and even as dense as Trump is, he is slowly realizing that Putin played him, and a narcissist like Trump can’t take being made fun of.
That being said, it really makes you wonder why Putin blew his chance this way. Had he curried favor with Trump and even pretended to give in and take a highly-favorable “peace deal” while continuing to sharpen the knife against Ukraine, he’d have given Russia pretty good position, and strengthened the hand of Moscow-friendly MAGA. Putin, too, was foolish for biting the hand that fed him. That KGB guy sure doesn’t look very KGB.
, fair is fair.