# Why isn't Korean missiles over Japan considered a major crisis? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 31, 2017, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187 "2017-08-31T18:43:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![MichaelEmouse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/michaelemouse/32/101_2.png) [@MichaelEmouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MichaelEmouse)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187/21 "2017-08-31T20:45:21Z")
Overtly reacting to it as a major crisis would give NK the power to create a major crisis rather easily with little cost to itself. It’s the same basic situation as adults overtly ignoring an attention-seeking tantrum while quietly limiting the child’s actions. We tend to see international conflicts like boxing matches with quick major actions having decisive results. For high-intensity warfare like WWII, that makes sense. This is more like a very long match of BJJ; Each opponent is using what leverage he has to open up opportunities for himself to get more leverage while putting himself in a good position to limit the opponent’s actions. What looks like inaction or missed opportunities may simply be not taking the bait. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187/22 "2017-08-31T20:54:33Z")
> [@CookingWithGas](#): > > I am not posting to say “Here’s what we should have done instead.” I am posting to ask, “Why isn’t this considered a crisis on par with something like the Cuban Missile Crisis”? Because this doesn’t put nukes 90 miles off the US mainland like the Cuban Missile crisis did? Are you suggesting that this is Japan’s Cuban Missile Crisis, because it isn’t ours? ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187/23 "2017-08-31T21:00:08Z")
> [@CookingWithGas](#): > > I am posting to ask, “Why isn’t this considered a crisis on par with something like the Cuban Missile Crisis”? N Korea \*wants \*something on par with the Cuban Missile Crisis. No one else does. ---
**Author:** ![Pantastic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3bc359/32.png) [@Pantastic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pantastic)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187/24 "2017-08-31T21:07:00Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > Italics mine. > Don’t you mean “continue” or “restart”? No, I mean start. The Korean war that started in the 1950s ended decades ago. ---
**Author:** ![Grrr](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grrr/32/146_2.png) [@Grrr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grrr)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187/25 "2017-08-31T21:14:47Z")
> [@Pantastic](#): > > No, I mean start. The Korean war that started in the 1950s ended decades ago. Technically, the war never ended. We are at a truce (or cease fire). At least, North and South Korea are. ---
**Author:** ![Bear\_Nenno](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bear_nenno/32/3358_2.png) [@Bear\_Nenno](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bear_Nenno)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187/26 "2017-08-31T21:24:12Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > Were that the case, would the North Korean missile not be in orbit? No. Missiles can be launched much, much higher than the ISS without ever reaching orbit. Reaching orbit is about how fast you’re going tangentially to the Earth, not how high or even how fast you go straight up. You have to go fast enough in a horizontal direction, not vertical. Otherwise, you’re just going to go really, really high, and then come right back down. ---
**Author:** ![Shalmanese](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/45deac/32.png) [@Shalmanese](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shalmanese)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187/27 "2017-08-31T22:58:40Z")
Japan is already [placing additional sanctions](https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Pyongyang-provocation/Japan-US-look-to-cut-off-North-Korea-s-oil-supply) on NK in reaction to the missile test. It’s about the only lever that can be pulled at this time. ---
**Author:** ![begbert2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/begbert2/32/3357_2.png) [@begbert2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/begbert2)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187/28 "2017-08-31T23:51:58Z")
> [@Bear\_Nenno](#): > > Otherwise, you’re just going to go really, really high, and then come right back down. Or not come down at all. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187/29 "2017-08-31T23:55:53Z")
> [@Bear\_Nenno](#): > > No. Missiles can be launched much, much higher than the ISS without ever reaching orbit. Reaching orbit is about how fast you’re going tangentially to the Earth, not how high or even how fast you go straight up. You have to go fast enough in a horizontal direction, not vertical. Otherwise, you’re just going to go really, really high, and then come right back down. Confusing, but thanks. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2017, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187/30 "2017-09-01T00:22:52Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > Confusing, but thanks. 🙂 Think of it vaguely like shooting a basketball from the free-throw line. If you throw the ball in too high an arc, it’ll go up and come back down, short of the basket. If you throw it too high and with too much power, it’ll sail over the basket. If you throw the ball too low, it’ll go under the basket. It’s only if you shoot the basketball at a precise speed and angle that it goes into the basket. Same for a ballistic missile. It has to go into a fairly narrow “window” in order to go into orbit - and with a certain speed, too. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2017, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187/31 "2017-09-01T01:18:07Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Think of it vaguely like shooting a basketball I’m not a sports guy, don’t know or give a damn about basketball. I’ll consult Buzz, the orbit expert. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2017, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187/32 "2017-09-01T05:37:58Z")
Re: orbits and launching In order to get into orbit, you not only have to go up, but you also have to go sideways fast enough that you don’t come back down and hit the Earth. Orbital launches go straight up at first because they have to get above the dense lower atmosphere, but as soon as they get a few kilometers up, they start to “tip over” towards a more horizontal atitude. The horizontal speed they need to get to is something like 7 km/sec, which is hella-fast. If you ever have seen video from chase planes (which they used to show (and maybe still do) for manned launches), you’ll see this. For ICBMs, they don’t need near as much horizontal speed, because the craft is not going into orbit and will come back down fairly soon. So they tend to go much higher than orbital craft. A typical ICBM will reach an altitude of something like 1200 km, which is 3 or 4 times the altitude of the ISS and even twice the highest altitude of the Hubble Space Telescope. The NK launches aren’t even typical ICBM trajectories. They’re still testing them, so the trajectories are much shorter than is typical. But still may go higher than the ISS. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2017, 6:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187/33 "2017-09-01T06:28:19Z")
If nothing else, the international bombing practice response made for some awesome photos. B-1Bs, F-35s, and F-15s all together: [![](http://pop.h-cdn.co/assets/17/35/980x490/landscape-1504206649-36755613416-05fc74a29d-k.jpg) ](http://pop.h-cdn.co/assets/17/35/980x490/landscape-1504206649-36755613416-05fc74a29d-k.jpg) [![](https://gdb.voanews.com/115249FF-75FA-4338-B44B-D3BA003C2F9C_cx0_cy5_cw0_w1023_r1_s.jpg) ](https://gdb.voanews.com/115249FF-75FA-4338-B44B-D3BA003C2F9C_cx0_cy5_cw0_w1023_r1_s.jpg) > [@](#): > > [Two U.S. Air Force B-1B bombers temporarily based at Guam flew north to South Korea, laden with satellite JDAM bombs. The bombers were escorted by Japan Air Self Defense Force F-15J Eagle air superiority fighters. U.S. Marine Corps F-35B Joint Strike Fighters based at Iwakuni, Japan joined up with the bombers mid-flight, and the aerial task force was accompanied by Republic of Korea F-15K Slam Eagle fighters for the last leg.](http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/news/a28034/b-1-f-35-north-korea/) ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2017, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187/34 "2017-09-01T06:49:12Z")
Pretty sure it’s just that the Cuban missiles were an actual threat, while none of these are. Missiles without even any bang that can’t hit the broad side of a country-sized barn just aren’t something to get too worried about, and thus not something to react very strongly about. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2017, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187/35 "2017-09-01T13:00:53Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > Missiles without even any bang that can’t hit the broad side of a country-sized barn just aren’t something to get too worried about, and thus not something to react very strongly about. Every once in a while, celebratory New Year’s shooting straight up into the air hits someone. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![CookingWithGas](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cookingwithgas/32/485_2.png) [@CookingWithGas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CookingWithGas)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2017, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187/36 "2017-09-01T13:53:58Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > [https://gdb.voanews.com/115249FF-75FA-4338-B44B-D3BA003C2F9C\_cx0\_cy5\_cw0\_w1023\_r1\_s.jpg](https://gdb.voanews.com/115249FF-75FA-4338-B44B-D3BA003C2F9C_cx0_cy5_cw0_w1023_r1_s.jpg) Thanks for the link to that story. That is exactly the kind of thing I would have expected we would do, and resolves the question. ---
**Author:** ![Pantastic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3bc359/32.png) [@Pantastic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pantastic)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2017, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187/37 "2017-09-01T16:49:38Z")
> [@Grrr](#): > > Technically, the war never ended. We are at a truce (or cease fire). At least, North and South Korea are. No, the war ended, it’s over and done with, that’s what the armistace did, as well as the soldiers not actually shooting anymore. Technically no one in the US government thinks we could legitimately restart hostilities without any additional cause, and technically no one thinks that the president could legally reopen hostilities without either an immediate threat, or Congressional authorization. Hell, technically the US was never in a war because Congress never issued anything calling itself a declaration of war. The idea that you get to pick and choose really specific wordings to count as the start and end of the war is just silly, and bears no relations to the way people and countries with actual power act in the situation. ---
**Author:** ![Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/46a35a/32.png) [@Tim\_T-Bonham.net](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_T-Bonham.net)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2017, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187/38 "2017-09-02T04:51:55Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Because this doesn’t put nukes 90 miles off the US mainland like the Cuban Missile crisis did? The Cuban crisis was a crisis because the US made it into one. The Cubans & Soviets claimed (and I think our spying confirmed) to have been surprised by our ‘over-reaction’. After all, we had many more missiles that close to Soviet territory already. (Removing them was a secret part of the agreement ending the Cuban crisis.) > [@BigT](#): > > Pretty sure it’s just that the Cuban missiles were an actual threat, while none of these are. The Cuban missiles weren’t an actual threat either – they had been shipped to Cuba, but not actually assembled & ready to launch at that time. So not an actual threat (yet). ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2017, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187/39 "2017-09-02T13:07:26Z")
Is it just me or is the only real stable equilibrium here that doesn’t result in a whole bunch of people dying to just let North Korea have nuclear weapons that could strike anywhere in the world? If we attack North Korea, Seoul gets razed. If we don’t attack North Korea, we have no other levers we can pull to prevent their nuclear program from becoming more advanced. If we let them keep building, the _only_ thing that will convince the world to strike against them is a North Korean nuclear first strike, at which point the response will be the complete annihilation of North Korea, Seoul be damned. But even the Kims aren’t _that_ crazy, so there’s a clear incentive pathway here: they build their nukes to entrench their power, and nobody blows up. That seems like the way this is going to play out. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2017, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187/40 "2017-09-03T01:35:09Z")
> [@Pantastic](#): > > No, the war ended, it’s over and done with, that’s what the armistace did, as well as the soldiers not actually shooting anymore. Technically no one in the US government thinks we could legitimately restart hostilities without any additional cause, and technically no one thinks that the president could legally reopen hostilities without either an immediate threat, or Congressional authorization. Hell, technically the US was never in a war because Congress never issued anything calling itself a declaration of war. > > The idea that you get to pick and choose really specific wordings to count as the start and end of the war is just silly, and bears no relations to the way people and countries with actual power act in the situation. Want to show a cite demonstrating these odd assertions? And I want to point out the irony of claiming that because Congress did or didn’t declare war that means…something. And that this means something to North Korea is, really, off the charts. I about fell out of my chair reading your post it’s so silly. As to the OP, it’s not considered a major crisis because Japan and South Korea, for basically good reasons, choose not to make it so…and the US goes along for those same reasons. I have no idea what the carrot top in charge will or won’t do when/if that idiot in North Korea decides to toss one over Guam, but for now I think both South Korea and Japan are trying to keep the escalation levels at a minimum, even if that means they don’t do more than file yet another complaint and impose yet more sanctions on North Korea for the provocation. The alternative would be very ugly. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-korean-missiles-over-japan-considered-a-major-crisis/795187.md?page=3)