# Why isn't Marco Rubio considered a legitimate 2016 contender? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 20, 2014, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716 "2014-12-20T04:05:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2015, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716/121 "2015-03-30T14:30:45Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Perhaps. It also seems that the candidate who picks the greener VP usually loses. As a matter of fact, the last three candidates who picked young, inexperienced VPs lost: Ryan, Palin, Edwards. I think less than 2% of voters base their vote on the VP choice. Someone like LBJ can carry a crucial state but other than that it is rarely a factor. If Rubio makes a brief run for the presidency and bows out after Iowa, as seems likely, why couldn’t he then run for the Senate again? I think Rubio is past his sell by date. I’m not seeing what his constituency is- too moderate for the radicals and too radical for the moderates. He may not have any haters out there, but nobody is willing to walk through a fire in a gasoline suit for him either. I still think Bush easily coasts to the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![Donald\_Rump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9fc29f/32.png) [@Donald\_Rump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Donald_Rump)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2015, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716/122 "2015-03-30T14:42:03Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > If Rubio makes a brief run for the presidency and bows out after Iowa, as seems likely, why couldn’t he then run for the Senate again? :smack: Good point. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716/123 "2015-03-31T12:53:20Z")
When they say Rubio can’t run for President it means he can’t be on the ballot in Florida. If Rubio wanted be a lawyer and violate the spirit of the law, he could simply forego Florida’s delegates by not being on the ballot there. But at this point I think I know what Rubio’s thinking. To win the GOP nomination you have to first lose it, albeit run credibly. I think Rubio can meet that threshold. So he leaves the Senate, and then runs to succeed Rick Scott in 2018. Assuming he does well, he’ll get reelected in 2022 and then run for President to win in 2024, when he’ll be only 52 years old. He could even hold off till 2028 if 2024 isn’t the right time(like if there’s a GOP incumbent already). He’d be 56. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716/124 "2015-03-31T13:49:51Z")
When have you ever seen a politician who’s talked up as a potential candidate hold off on running for nine years? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2015, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716/125 "2015-03-31T14:47:13Z")
Joe Biden. But I’m sure Rubio wants to win. But even if he doesn’t, he’s set himself up well for the future and he’s done with the Senate. So he spends more time burnishing his resume and then he’s a prohibitive frontrunner in the future. I just don’t think he wants to be in the Senate anymore though. The Senate is fantastic if you want to serve until you’re 100 years old. If you want to be President, you become a governor. Or VP, which might also be Rubio’s destination in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2015, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716/126 "2015-04-08T23:08:49Z")
Of all the Republican contenders, declared and undeclared, Senator Rubio has the strongest showing against a matchup with Secretary Clinton. As of the polls yesterday. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest\_polls/](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/) ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2015, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716/127 "2015-04-08T23:35:34Z")
One way to interpret that data: The better known they get, the worse they look. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2015, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716/128 "2015-04-09T00:24:07Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > One way to interpret that data: The better known they get, the worse they look. Are you saying that Senator Rubio is less known than the other Republican contenders? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2015, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716/129 "2015-04-09T00:26:24Z")
If he declares, that will change, certainly. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2015, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716/130 "2015-04-09T00:44:19Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > If he declares, that will change, certainly. Ok, he is supposed to declare next week, so we will see. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2015, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716/131 "2015-04-09T03:14:32Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > Are you saying that Senator Rubio is less known than the other Republican contenders? Well, he is. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2015, 3:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716/132 "2015-04-09T03:20:24Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Well, he is. Less known than Ben Carson, for example? I doubt it. Anyway, we’ll see if Senator Rubio’s polls change after he announces, one way or the other. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2015, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716/133 "2015-04-09T03:24:12Z")
Carson’s actually really well known, although not as a political figure. I suspect his 3rd to 5th place status is mostly based on name recognition and good feelings people have for him. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2015, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716/134 "2015-04-09T03:30:16Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > Of all the Republican contenders, declared and undeclared, Senator Rubio has the strongest showing against a matchup with Secretary Clinton. As of the polls yesterday. > > [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest\_polls/](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/) Only if you restrict to one set of polls. Looking further down the page to Fox’s set I see Bush doing the best against Clinton, Paul second and Rubio third. Also Rubio third against Clinton in the ABC poll. And consistently below Carson even to win the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2015, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716/135 "2015-04-09T03:33:36Z")
As of less than three weeks ago: > [@](#): > > Fifty-six percent didn’t know neurosurgeon Ben Carson, and 39 percent were unfamiliar with Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida. > **[Is Hillary Clinton's Famous Name Boosting Her in Early 2016 Polls?](https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/29659/)** > > The psychological power of a familiar name. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2015, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716/136 "2015-04-09T03:41:01Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Only if you restrict to one set of polls. Looking further down the page to Fox’s set I see Bush doing the best against Clinton, Paul second and Rubio third. Also Rubio third against Clinton in the ABC poll. And consistently below Carson even to win the nomination. “Further down the page” means older polling data. Even if you disregard the admittedly short timeframe between the FoxNews poll (Apr 3) and the PPP poll (Apr 7), the difference between Clinton v. Rubio is only one point between the two polls–Clinton +4 vs. Clinton +3. Not much significance, there. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2015, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716/137 "2015-04-09T04:10:14Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > As of less than three weeks ago: > > [http://www.nationaljournal.com/2016-elections/is-hillary-clinton-s-famous-name-boosting-her-in-early-2016-polls-20150320](http://www.nationaljournal.com/2016-elections/is-hillary-clinton-s-famous-name-boosting-her-in-early-2016-polls-20150320) Cool, I hadn’t been able to find any polls on recognition of Carson. I’d note though that Carson seems to be winning the votes of about 25% of those that know him, whereas Rubio is struggling to win 10%. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2015, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716/138 "2015-04-09T13:37:59Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > “Further down the page” means older polling data. Even if you disregard the admittedly short timeframe between the FoxNews poll (Apr 3) and the PPP poll (Apr 7), the difference between Clinton v. Rubio is only one point between the two polls–Clinton +4 vs. Clinton +3. Not much significance, there. Aye, but the difference is also Bush relatively 4 points and 3 points up on Rubio in those hypothetical Clinton match-ups. All but one of the latest polls show Bush doing best (well least poorly) in a match-up against Clinton, not Rubio, and cherry picking the single one that is a different result seems a bit specious. Not that any of this means anything at this stage of the game. To much of the public at large Rubio is indeed a generic Republican candidate and the generic candidate always polls relatively well against a known entity. (Jeb is even relatively generic at this point other than his last name.) Rubio’s problem is with those who do know of him … in the GOP base. They have not forgiven him for his less extreme immigration positions even though he has rescinded them many times since. Rubio’s one hope is that the “we are not completely batshit” wing fails to coalesce around Jeb due to his weakness as a campaigner (especially if early results give oxygen to one or more completely batshit options). But then he also has to thread the needle between pandering to the activist base (with _sincerity_ of course) and playing the part of the grown-up in the room. Don’t think he has that skill set. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2015, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716/139 "2015-04-09T13:41:00Z")
[Rubio’s State of the Union rebuttal](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLmZbBh83-I) did not help him, either, any more than Jindal’s did. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [April 9, 2015, 2:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716/140 "2015-04-09T14:00:52Z")
I’m a little surprised to hear Rubio described as an unknown. He’s been the Great White(ish) Hope since the previous election cycle. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-isnt-marco-rubio-considered-a-legitimate-2016-contender/707716.md?page=8)