Why isn't Marco Rubio considered a legitimate 2016 contender?

God is an iron.

I wasn’t stunned. Just deleted a post that was redundant after iiandyiii’s: upholding the embargo is a fading minority position, generally and among Hispanics in Florida, so Rubio’s attachment to the issue cancels whatever demographic/electoral appeal he might have had.

I recall some post-mortem complaining in 2012 about how Rubio should have been the Republican nominee simply because women voters would have loved him. Apparently, women indiscriminately love all Hispanic male celebrities (Marco Rubio, Ricky Ricardo, what’s the difference?)

Speaking of Floridians, there’s also Rick “Nosferatu” Scott. How powerful is the morticians’ lobby anyway?

Okay. Sorry! :slight_smile: I was feeling very ellipsis-y after reading adaher’s post above yours and so I read your ellipsis in that mindset.

Nobody likes Rubio, he was supposed to be a TEA party darling but then he went and supported immigration reform so now he is a pariah.

Personally I think Rubio would be a strong candidate. He’s a conservative but let’s face facts - anyone who gets the Republican nomination is going to be a conservative. But Rubio has the best chance of drawing votes from beyond the conservatives’ traditional white male base.

Okay, he took a very un-conservative stance on immigration that was embraced by the Democratic-majority Senate. But it wasn’t moderate. You win.

Oh, you mean something like “he’s young, handsome, intelligent, understands the issues, has experience, comes from a Hispanic background, and comes from a critical swing state?”

I don’t think Obama’s “reset” or Rubio’s “repudiation” will have any affect on a 2016 presidential election. It’s a tangential issue that very few care about. Cubans typically vote Republican anyway. You suggest they wouldn’t vote for Rubio?

While this is certainly true, there aren’t a whole lot of Republicans who’re realistically able to get nominated by the base that aren’t clods. It’s all relative.

And to be honest, the primaries might end up being a serious problem for Rubio. He’s conservative, sure, but the few issues one which he doesn’t toe the party line could kill him. A number of other potential candidates - Christie comes to mind - have the same problem. (Well, what with Bridgegate [God that’s a stupid term] and being an obnoxious, arrogant pig, Christie’s got some other problems going on, too).

In the end, that’s the paradox the Republicans are facing. Anyone conservative enough to get though the primaries is too extreme to win the general election; anyone moderate enough to win the general is too liberal (well, “liberal”) to win the primaries. It’s quite possible that the same thing might happen in 2016 as in 2012 - various nutters run through the hoops, before some lame yet safe old white dude is nominated.

As to Rubio’s presidential prospects if all he’s got is the Cubans then all he’s got is South Florida. The rest of the “Hispanic vote”, well, they are not all his natural constituency. “Hispanics” are not a monolithic bloc anyway but he has to tread carefully since many of the different segments can potentially be unified *negatively *by an opponent appealing to the decades-long perception, not always fair, of Cuban “privilege” (as in: “Oh, so if you row yourself in at night you’re a job-stealing illegal to be arrested, but if HE does he’s a freedom-loving refugee to be sheltered?”). There is no love lost between many factions in the non-Cuban-Latino “base” and the Miami Cuban Establishment.

Asians are more winnable than Latinos. I really think Jindal would net the Republicans more votes outside their traditional constituencies than Rubio. At best, Rubio would get them the also winnable Cuban vote.

I don’t think Rubio’s position on the embargo is going to be much of a problem. In that regard, Rubio holds more power than the President. I think the President’s actions here are foolish. He can’t open an embassy in Cuba or end the embargo without Congress. The embargo is established by several laws, most recently Helms-Burton and the Cuba Democracy Act. The President can “talk” to whoever he wants, but he can’t actually do anything substantial with Cuba without Congress’ consent.

Sometimes it’s a numbers game. There are more than three times as many Hispanic Americans as Asian Americans.

I doubt that Rubio helps among Latinos except for Cubans. Besides, if it’s a numbers game, you want the guy who will bring in the most white voters.

Racist :wink:

Do you ever research your claims, or do you just go off when you see the word Obama?

Ending the trade embargo needs congressional approval. Re-establishing diplomatic ties and expanding an already existing facility into an embassy is already happening.

What’s foolish is pretending we don’t have diplomatic relations with non-democratic countries. Isolation is a failed, anachronistic and fruitless policy.

The President could turn an already existing facility into an embassy, yes. Not sure how he’d pay for its day-to-day operations though. Maybe Oliver Stone or Michael Moore will write him a check.

Does the legislation funding the State Department specify how much money should go to each individual embassy? Or does State just get some money to use as they see fit or as the President directs?

And even if it does, there’s already a funded, functioning embassy in Havana, as there has been since 1977. All it needs is a new sign admitting that it’s an embassy. Is the authorization for the “interests section” really so precise that it prohibits a sign using the word “embassy”?

I don’t know if Congress does, but I do know that they can. I suppose the President could veto such a limitation, but the President causing a shutdown for Fidel Castro doesn’t sound too politically promising to me.

Sure, he could do that. Doesn’t really change anything though. The President can do all kinds of symbolic things with Cuba, but he can’t do anything substantial. Treaties would not be approved, State dept. activities will not be funded in Cuba, and the embargo will not be lifted unless Cuba holds elections.

I’d also be interested in seeing Hillary Clinton asked why if this is such a great idea now, why wasn’t it a great idea when her husband was President? Does she think that him signing two major anti-Castro bills, the Cuban Democracy Act and Helms-Burton, a mistake?

I mean, from don’t ask don’t tell, to DOMA, to the Cuba bills, to NAFTA, to Graham-Leach-Bliley, it’s starting to look like Bill did a large number of things his wife opposes.