I think less than 2% of voters base their vote on the VP choice. Someone like LBJ can carry a crucial state but other than that it is rarely a factor.
If Rubio makes a brief run for the presidency and bows out after Iowa, as seems likely, why couldn’t he then run for the Senate again?
I think Rubio is past his sell by date. I’m not seeing what his constituency is- too moderate for the radicals and too radical for the moderates. He may not have any haters out there, but nobody is willing to walk through a fire in a gasoline suit for him either. I still think Bush easily coasts to the nomination.
When they say Rubio can’t run for President it means he can’t be on the ballot in Florida. If Rubio wanted be a lawyer and violate the spirit of the law, he could simply forego Florida’s delegates by not being on the ballot there.
But at this point I think I know what Rubio’s thinking. To win the GOP nomination you have to first lose it, albeit run credibly. I think Rubio can meet that threshold. So he leaves the Senate, and then runs to succeed Rick Scott in 2018. Assuming he does well, he’ll get reelected in 2022 and then run for President to win in 2024, when he’ll be only 52 years old. He could even hold off till 2028 if 2024 isn’t the right time(like if there’s a GOP incumbent already). He’d be 56.
But I’m sure Rubio wants to win. But even if he doesn’t, he’s set himself up well for the future and he’s done with the Senate. So he spends more time burnishing his resume and then he’s a prohibitive frontrunner in the future.
I just don’t think he wants to be in the Senate anymore though. The Senate is fantastic if you want to serve until you’re 100 years old. If you want to be President, you become a governor. Or VP, which might also be Rubio’s destination in 2016.
Of all the Republican contenders, declared and undeclared, Senator Rubio has the strongest showing against a matchup with Secretary Clinton. As of the polls yesterday.
Carson’s actually really well known, although not as a political figure. I suspect his 3rd to 5th place status is mostly based on name recognition and good feelings people have for him.
Only if you restrict to one set of polls. Looking further down the page to Fox’s set I see Bush doing the best against Clinton, Paul second and Rubio third. Also Rubio third against Clinton in the ABC poll. And consistently below Carson even to win the nomination.
“Further down the page” means older polling data. Even if you disregard the admittedly short timeframe between the FoxNews poll (Apr 3) and the PPP poll (Apr 7), the difference between Clinton v. Rubio is only one point between the two polls–Clinton +4 vs. Clinton +3. Not much significance, there.
Cool, I hadn’t been able to find any polls on recognition of Carson. I’d note though that Carson seems to be winning the votes of about 25% of those that know him, whereas Rubio is struggling to win 10%.
Aye, but the difference is also Bush relatively 4 points and 3 points up on Rubio in those hypothetical Clinton match-ups. All but one of the latest polls show Bush doing best (well least poorly) in a match-up against Clinton, not Rubio, and cherry picking the single one that is a different result seems a bit specious.
Not that any of this means anything at this stage of the game. To much of the public at large Rubio is indeed a generic Republican candidate and the generic candidate always polls relatively well against a known entity. (Jeb is even relatively generic at this point other than his last name.) Rubio’s problem is with those who do know of him … in the GOP base. They have not forgiven him for his less extreme immigration positions even though he has rescinded them many times since.
Rubio’s one hope is that the “we are not completely batshit” wing fails to coalesce around Jeb due to his weakness as a campaigner (especially if early results give oxygen to one or more completely batshit options). But then he also has to thread the needle between pandering to the activist base (with sincerity of course) and playing the part of the grown-up in the room. Don’t think he has that skill set.