# Why not punt the ball out of bounds? (NFL) **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [November 28, 2007, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-not-punt-the-ball-out-of-bounds-nfl/427983 "2007-11-28T00:16:09Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Trunk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/87869e/32.png) [@Trunk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trunk)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2007, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-not-punt-the-ball-out-of-bounds-nfl/427983/41 "2007-11-28T14:48:05Z")
[QUOTE=The Controvert] Wasn’t the Devin Hester TD off of a kick-off (not a punt)? If facing Devin Hester, why not kick it through the end-zone instead of out of bounds? Field goal kickers routinely nail 50-yarders these days. I’d think it’s possible to regularly line drive a kick-off 70 or 80 yards. [/QUOTE] He had a kick off return, and a punt return for TDs. If kickers could kick it through the endzone, they would. It’s 70 yards to the goal line. That’s a fucking bomb. IINM, Hester also had a fumble on one return. He now has 10 returns in a season and a half. The NFL record is 13. DH is ridiculous. ---
**Author:** ![Wee\_Bairn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/90db22/32.png) [@Wee\_Bairn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wee_Bairn)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2007, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-not-punt-the-ball-out-of-bounds-nfl/427983/42 "2007-11-28T14:48:25Z")
[QUOTE=The Controvert] Wasn’t the Devin Hester TD off of a kick-off (not a punt)? If facing Devin Hester, why not kick it through the end-zone instead of out of bounds? Field goal kickers routinely nail 50-yarders these days. I’d think it’s possible to regularly line drive a kick-off 70 or 80 yards. [/QUOTE] If a kicker could kick every kick out of the end zone, every kick would be kicked out of the end zone. No kicker can come close to doing this. They pushed the kickoff back to the 30 from the 35 because too many kicks were going deep in the end zone, and the league wants returns. If kickers get better, they’ll keep pushing it back. ---
**Author:** ![Man\_With\_a\_Cat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/cab0a1/32.png) [@Man\_With\_a\_Cat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Man_With_a_Cat)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2007, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-not-punt-the-ball-out-of-bounds-nfl/427983/43 "2007-11-28T14:58:28Z")
[hijack] To Bears fans, the sweetest part of the game was watching Sauerbrun whiff on one tackle, and then get hurdled trying to make another one [/hijack] ---
**Author:** ![VarlosZ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/d78d45/32.png) [@VarlosZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VarlosZ)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2007, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-not-punt-the-ball-out-of-bounds-nfl/427983/44 "2007-11-28T15:49:35Z")
Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz recently dealt with the ‘squib it to Hester’ strategy. They found that in general you’re better off just kicking it deep. Snips from their Week 10 and Week 12 DVOA Rankings columns (bolding for those who just want to skim): > [@](#): > > . . . OK, second question: Is this a good idea? I just looked at this for an upcoming issue of ESPN the Magazine, and here’s what I found. > > Hester did not take over as Chicago’s main kickoff returner until Week 13 of last year, and teams generally kicked to him during last year’s regular season and for the first four weeks of this year. Overall, from Week 13 of 2006 through Week 8 of 2007 teams kicked away to Hester 46 times and tried to avoid him 35 times. (This is my best estimate, obviously I may be wrong about the intention of a couple of those kicks.) > > [ul][li]The net gain from kicking to Hester averaged 37.8 yards. The net gain from avoiding Hester averaged just 34.0 yards. [/li][li]Chicago’s averaging starting position was their own 31.7-yard line when the other team kicked to Hester, and their own 36.9-yard line when the other team avoided Hester. [/li][li] **On average, kicking deep to Hester was worth -.29 points of field position compared to the league average for kickoffs. The average kickoff which avoided Hester was worth -.42 points of field position.** [/ul][/li]The stats for kicking deep to Hester would be even better if we included this week’s game against Oakland. The numbers seem to say that it is better to kick to Hester, and don’t even consider two other issues: fumbles and penalties. **Hester may be Mr. 100 Speed, but the guy has butterfingers.** Four fumbles is an astonishing number for a guy who has only fielded 50 kickoffs in his career. Two of those fumbles were recovered by the kicking team, giving them the ball deep in Chicago territory. (On punts, the problem is even worse: 11 muffs or fumbles in a year and a half, twice as many as any other player in the NFL.) > > **Every great Hester run is also one block in the back away from disappearing into thin air.** Hester lost a touchdown to a penalty against Seattle in the playoffs, and he lost another one against Kansas City in Week 2. Even a shorter Hester return could be docked 10 yards on a penalty, and that’s not going to happen when Israel Idonije is fair catching a short kick. > > Hester is a good kickoff returner, not a great one. He’s a great punt returner (despite the muffs) but kickoff returns and punt returns use different skills. Late in the half or nursing a lead, it makes sense to avoid Hester. Otherwise, teams are just handing Chicago the ball 20 yards from field-goal position, and even an inept offense like Chicago will gain 20 yards on a lot of drives. Avoiding Hester is a losing strategy. . . > > . . . I know that Hester’s two touchdowns have re-ignited the debate about whether or not you should kick to him. You may remember from a couple weeks ago that I feel you usually should. “Go ahead and kick to Hester” sounds stupid because, when we consider the question, **our memories only pull out Hester’s touchdowns. Stats pick out all the kickoffs and punts against Chicago, not just the ones in the highlights. When Hester takes one back all the way, you see the benefit to Chicago all at once. If you hand the Bears short field position over and over, the advantage for Chicago comes in small amounts of field position that build up over time.** > > The other problem with the “kick to Hester or not” question is that it is constantly presented as a binary choice. Yet there are different ways to kick and different ways to organize your coverage. We went over this in Audibles, but kicking to him right down the middle is the worst possible choice. Kicking to the side risks a kickoff out of bounds, but you also make it easier for your coverage guys to find Hester. If your kickoff coverage team tries to all converge on Hester at once, rather than keeping a couple of guys back a bit, Hester just has to make one move and he’s home free. **You also have to consider who your kicker is and where you are playing the game. If I have Neil Rackers, and I’m at home in Arizona, I kick to Hester. Rackers will boom it, and a couple of those are going to be touchbacks. If I’m on the road in Chicago, and the ball isn’t carrying as well in the cold, and my kickoff guy can’t get it past the 10, well, maybe it is time to consider avoiding Hester. Like everything else in the NFL, it’s never an issue of “always do” or “never do.”** ---
**Author:** ![Wee\_Bairn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/90db22/32.png) [@Wee\_Bairn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wee_Bairn)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2007, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-not-punt-the-ball-out-of-bounds-nfl/427983/45 "2007-11-28T16:20:37Z")
I was astounded to see that Hester is a mere **14th** in the league in kickoff return average. ---
**Author:** ![Capa84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8edcca/32.png) [@Capa84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capa84)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2007, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-not-punt-the-ball-out-of-bounds-nfl/427983/46 "2007-11-28T16:27:31Z")
I think the answer is situational. If you are up by 5 with :45 left, what do you fear more, Hester running back a punt, or Grossman leading a 70yd TD drive? ---
**Author:** ![HoboStew](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/f17d59/32.png) [@HoboStew](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoboStew)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2007, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-not-punt-the-ball-out-of-bounds-nfl/427983/47 "2007-11-28T18:34:41Z")
[QUOTE=Enginerd] Compare that the NFL average of 34.3 net yards. That 4.3 yards might not seem like that much, but it’s 538 yards of field position over 125 punts. Do you really want to give up that much ground to avoid one score? [/QUOTE] [QUOTE=SenorBeef] Would you accept a 1 yard net punting average? Is it better to give up roughly 40 yards of field position with each punt to guarantee there will be no touchdowns? No, of course not, so it’s a continuum. Most teams decide that risking the occasional big return is worth not giving up field position consistently. [/QUOTE] If indeed the net difference is 4.3 yards, I think it absolutely makes sense, ESPECIALLY with proven dangerous return men. As a coach I think I would trade up to 10 yards of field position. I accept that TDs are rare, but I don’t think long returns are all that rare, and I think I would rather see a team earn those yards against my defense instead of a big gash on special teams. As for getting the ball back on a fumble, that is an interesting case. Fumbles in this kind of scenario are rarely returned, usually they just get fallen on, so the chance of you getting a TD out of the deal are small. Therefore in order to justify risking a punt return for a TD, I’d estimate you would have to get twice as many fumble recoveries vrs return TDs given up to come out ahead in the long run. Course Im just pulling that # out of my ass, but the point is getting the ball with great field position is not nearly as good as getting a TD. ---
**Author:** ![borschevsky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/97f17d/32.png) [@borschevsky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/borschevsky)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2007, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-not-punt-the-ball-out-of-bounds-nfl/427983/48 "2007-11-28T20:08:00Z")
One important point in favor of kicking away from Hester is that he plays for the Bears, and their offense is … not so good. As a defense, teams will probably feel that they will tend to stop Chicago from scoring, all things being equal. Therefore, they should play to reduce _variance_, not necessarily expected value (yardage). Say Indy is about a 6 point favourite over Chicago. If nothing crazy happens, they can expect to win by 6. If they kick to Hester, crazy things might start to happen, like fumbles and return touchdowns. So kicking to him means they are more likely to win by 13, if he fumbles, but also more likely to lose by 1, if he runs one back. ---
**Author:** ![Oslo\_Ostragoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a9a28c/32.png) [@Oslo\_Ostragoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oslo_Ostragoth)\ **Post date:** [November 28, 2007, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-not-punt-the-ball-out-of-bounds-nfl/427983/49 "2007-11-28T23:22:52Z")
[QUOTE=Wee Bairn] Sauerbrauns brash talk aside, is it really up to the punter whether they will kick to the returner or not? I would think that would be a coaches decision. [/QUOTE] If anybody taped the game, I heard that Shanahan gave him a real butt-chewing after one of them. So I think he probably was told to play keepaway, but didn’t. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2007, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-not-punt-the-ball-out-of-bounds-nfl/427983/50 "2007-11-29T00:17:17Z")
[QUOTE=HoboStew] As for getting the ball back on a fumble, that is an interesting case. Fumbles in this kind of scenario are rarely returned, usually they just get fallen on, so the chance of you getting a TD out of the deal are small. Therefore in order to justify risking a punt return for a TD, I’d estimate you would have to get twice as many fumble recoveries vrs return TDs given up to come out ahead in the long run. Course Im just pulling that # out of my ass, but the point is getting the ball with great field position is not nearly as good as getting a TD. [/QUOTE] Your view is oddly TD-centric. A fumble recovery on a punt is huge - not only do you get the ball back after your offensive series sputtered out, but you get it 40 yards down the field. That’s huge. You seem to be dismissing the value of that unless it results in a TD in the very same play. ---
**Author:** ![HoboStew](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/f17d59/32.png) [@HoboStew](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoboStew)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2007, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-not-punt-the-ball-out-of-bounds-nfl/427983/51 "2007-11-29T00:19:53Z")
I didn’t dismiss it. I agree it is huge, just not nearly as huge as actually getting a touchdown. You recover the fumble, you still have to execute on offense to get anything out of the deal. Give up a TD return and they get 7 points without ever even putting their offense on the field. Which is why I said it should be about a 2-1 fumble to TD ratio. I figure 2 fumble recoveries under those circumstances would be worth roughly 7 points. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2007, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-not-punt-the-ball-out-of-bounds-nfl/427983/52 "2007-11-29T01:14:47Z")
Everyone is forgetting: even when someone runs the kick back, that’s only an advantage to the extent that it represents points in the bank, as opposed to points that might happen. But offenses tend to score points, so to some extent, all the runback did was shorten the time frame. Thus, for example: Let’s say someone runs back 5 kicks in a season for TD. Well, let’s say that that player’s team scores touchdowns on around 40% of its possessions. The advantage is only 3 TD’s, plus the reduction in time taken to score. Now, if the return man also tends to run back for large yardage, then that’s something to consider, because punting to him results in potentially worse field position. But in the case of Hester, his return stats, when you take OUT the TDs, are lousy. In other words, if he breaks it, he’s golden, but he’s not gonna get you much on average. So he’s not really a threat over an above his potential for a return. Coffin corner punting was all the rage at one point. If it isn’t the rage any more, it’s likely because someone wise with stats pointed out that it wasn’t working, when compared to other options. Likely, that’s because directional punting isn’t easy to do. It requires that you take your time, increasing the chances of being blocked. It usually requires a lower trajectory, again, increasing the chances of blockage. And, it isn’t very accurate; that old oblate spheroid thing again. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Capa84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8edcca/32.png) [@Capa84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capa84)\ **Post date:** [November 29, 2007, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-not-punt-the-ball-out-of-bounds-nfl/427983/53 "2007-11-29T02:00:06Z")
Also, there is a new method of punting that kills the ball without much of a bounce…most punters now are practicing this. Pittsburgh’s rookie Dan Sepulveda was supposedly a master of this in college, and from what I’ve seen it’s true. Instead of punting a ball so that is spirals for max distance, he kicks it so is spins like a kickoff. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-not-punt-the-ball-out-of-bounds-nfl/427983.md?page=2)