# Why sacrificing Grandma by opening up again might not save the economy **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 3, 2020, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011 "2020-04-03T23:45:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![russian\_heel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f05b48/32.png) [@russian\_heel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/russian_heel)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2020, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/1 "2020-04-03T23:45:01Z")
Interesting interview with a MIT economist who reviewed the economic implications of the Spanish flu 100 years ago. His basic premise was the pandemic already ruined the economy, but American cities that acted the fastest and put in social distancing measures the longest bounced back more than those that tried the quick and easy way out: > **[No tradeoff: Spanish flu study shows social distancing and strong economy go...](https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-covid-pandemic-1918-spanish-flu-economic-impact-mit-study-20200402.html)** > > A new study by MIT professors sheds light on the potential impact of social distancing on the economy the day after the coronavirus pandemic is over. Admittedly it was a different world back then with smaller global chains and coming off a catastrophic war. That said, 1918 American cities were also cut off from each other but with decent supply chains between them so perhaps in some ways they can be compared to today’s nations. The good news he points out is that many sectors of today’s quarantine economy remain active due to the Internet. Not mentioned is that today we also have stronger financial tools to help speed recovery. In other words we can rush back to work and kill millions which itself could wreck the economy anyway or take our time, be fucking patient, save lives and bounce back and recover stronger and wiser. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [April 3, 2020, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/2 "2020-04-03T23:47:26Z")
I know which way the GOP would rather go! ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2020, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/3 "2020-04-04T00:57:37Z")
Let’s assume the following: 1. The average person can generate about $2500 worth of value per month, if employed. 2. There is a linear scale of social distancing (e.g., cutting off airplanes, cutting off events, shelter-at-home, forced complete quarantine for all, etc.) which causes 5% unemployment if we do nothing (0) and 15% employment at the top end (10). 3. The fatality rate for people under 55 is 0.15% and 5% for those 55 and older. This is, assuming that hospitals are able to adequately care for them. 4. If hospitals have become overrun, then the fatality rate is tripled in direct correlation to the percentage of overrun hospitals. 5. 80% of the labor force is under the age of 55. 6. The percentage of hospitals which are overrun is linearly correlated to the scale of social distancing. At 0, 50% will be overrun. At 10, 0% will be overrun. 7. The duration of the epidemic is linearly correlated to the scale of social distancing. At 0, the epidemic will factor on employment rates for a 3 month period. At 10, it will be stretched over a 6 month period. 8. The percentage of infected is linearly correlated to the scale of social distancing. At 0, 60% of individuals will become infected. At 10, 30% will. 9. The average age of a worker is 42. The average retirement age of a worker is 62. Any deaths (for simplicity’s sake) will be viewed as a loss of 20 years worth of economic activity. While these numbers are somewhat ballpark, they are generally based on these cites: > **[South Korea: coronavirus mortality rate by age 2023 | Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105088/south-korea-coronavirus-mortality-rate-by-age/)** > > As of February 1, 2023, the fatality rate of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in South Korea lay at around two percent among people aged 80 year and older. > **[Italy COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/)** > > Italy Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline. > **[Older workers: Labor force trends and career options : Career Outlook: U.S....](https://www.bls.gov/careeroutlook/2017/article/older-workers.htm)** > > BLS data have a lot to say about older workers. What those data show may surprise you. **If we perform a social isolation level of 8 across the entire worker population, we expect a fatality rate (among workers) of:** workerCount = 150m workersInfected = (workerCount \* ((1.0 - 0.8) \* (0.6 - 0.3) + 0.3)) = 54m youngWorkerFatalitiesPreHospital = (workersInfected \* 0.8) \* 0.0015 = 64,800 olderWorkerFatalitiesPreHospital = (workersInfected \* 0.2) \* 0.05 = 540,000 youngWorkerFatalities = youngWorkerFatalitiesPreHospital \* ((1 - 0.8) \* 0.5 \* 2 + 1) = 77,760 olderWorkerFatalities = olderWorkerFatalitiesPreHospital \* ((1 - 0.8) \* 0.5 \* 2 + 1) = 648,000 totalFatalities = youngWorkerFatalities + olderWorkerFatalities = 725,760 And we expect an economic loss of: lossesToDeath = totalFatalities \* $2500 \* 12 \* 20 = $435.5b totalUnemployed = (0.8 \* (0.15 - 0.5) + 0.5) \* workerCount = 87m totalMonthsUnemployed = (0.8 \* (6 - 3) + 3) = 5.4 totalLossesToUnemployment = totalMonthsUnemployed \* totalUnemployed \* $2500 = $1.2t totalLoss = lossesToDeath + totalLossesToUnemployment = $1.6t **Versus a 2:** workerCount = 150m workersInfected = (workerCount \* ((1.0 - 0.2) \* (0.6 - 0.3) + 0.3)) = 81m youngWorkerFatalitiesPreHospital = (workersInfected \* 0.8) \* 0.0015 = 97,200 olderWorkerFatalitiesPreHospital = (workersInfected \* 0.2) \* 0.05 = 810,000 youngWorkerFatalities = youngWorkerFatalitiesPreHospital \* ((1 - 0.2) \* 0.5 \* 2 + 1) = 174,960 olderWorkerFatalities = olderWorkerFatalitiesPreHospital \* ((1 - 0.2) \* 0.5 \* 2 + 1) = 1,458,000 totalFatalities = youngWorkerFatalities + olderWorkerFatalities = 1,632,960 lossesToDeath = totalFatalities \* $2500 \* 12 \* 20 = $979.8b totalUnemployed = (0.2 \* (0.15 - 0.5) + 0.5) \* workerCount = 78m totalMonthsUnemployed = (0.2 \* (6 - 3) + 3) = 3.6 totalLossesToUnemployment = totalMonthsUnemployed \* totalUnemployed \* $2500 = $702b totalLoss = lossesToDeath + totalLossesToUnemployment = $1.7t Not a particularly rigorous analysis but the biggest difference seems to be life rather than economics. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2020, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/4 "2020-04-04T01:16:14Z")
We won’t be just sacrificing grandma; we’ll be hospitalizing 50 and 60 somethings in the process - people who have the most money saved up. We’ll be hospitalizing (and killing) managers, business owners, breadwinners, and retirees who have money saved up and are still healthy to go out and buy shit. These are not the people we want to flush down the toilet. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2020, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/5 "2020-04-04T02:16:58Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > Let’s assume the following: > > 1. The average person can generate about $2500 worth of value per month, if employed. > 2. There is a linear scale of social distancing (e.g., cutting off airplanes, cutting off events, shelter-at-home, forced complete quarantine for all, etc.) which causes 5% unemployment if we do nothing (0) and 15% employment at the top end (10). > 3. The fatality rate for people under 55 is 0.15% and 5% for those 55 and older. This is, assuming that hospitals are able to adequately care for them. > 4. If hospitals have become overrun, then the fatality rate is tripled in direct correlation to the percentage of overrun hospitals. > 5. 80% of the labor force is under the age of 55. > 6. The percentage of hospitals which are overrun is linearly correlated to the scale of social distancing. At 0, 50% will be overrun. At 10, 0% will be overrun. > 7. The duration of the epidemic is linearly correlated to the scale of social distancing. At 0, the epidemic will factor on employment rates for a 3 month period. At 10, it will be stretched over a 6 month period. > 8. The percentage of infected is linearly correlated to the scale of social distancing. At 0, 60% of individuals will become infected. At 10, 30% will. > 9. The average age of a worker is 42. The average retirement age of a worker is 62. Any deaths (for simplicity’s sake) will be viewed as a loss of 20 years worth of economic activity. > > While these numbers are somewhat ballpark, they are generally based on these cites: > > [South Korea: coronavirus mortality rate by age 2023 | Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105088/south-korea-coronavirus-mortality-rate-by-age/) > [Italy COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/) > [https://www.bls.gov/careeroutlook/2017/article/older-workers.htm](https://www.bls.gov/careeroutlook/2017/article/older-workers.htm) > > **If we perform a social isolation level of 8 across the entire worker population, we expect a fatality rate (among workers) of:** > > workerCount = 150m > workersInfected = (workerCount \* ((1.0 - 0.8) \* (0.6 - 0.3) + 0.3)) = 54m > youngWorkerFatalitiesPreHospital = (workersInfected \* 0.8) \* 0.0015 = 64,800 > olderWorkerFatalitiesPreHospital = (workersInfected \* 0.2) \* 0.05 = 540,000 > youngWorkerFatalities = youngWorkerFatalitiesPreHospital \* ((1 - 0.8) \* 0.5 \* 2 + 1) = 77,760 > olderWorkerFatalities = olderWorkerFatalitiesPreHospital \* ((1 - 0.8) \* 0.5 \* 2 + 1) = 648,000 > totalFatalities = youngWorkerFatalities + olderWorkerFatalities = 725,760 > > And we expect an economic loss of: > > lossesToDeath = totalFatalities \* $2500 \* 12 \* 20 = $435.5b > totalUnemployed = (0.8 \* (0.15 - 0.5) + 0.5) \* workerCount = 87m > totalMonthsUnemployed = (0.8 \* (6 - 3) + 3) = 5.4 > totalLossesToUnemployment = totalMonthsUnemployed \* totalUnemployed \* $2500 = $1.2t > totalLoss = lossesToDeath + totalLossesToUnemployment = $1.6t > > **Versus a 2:** > > workerCount = 150m > workersInfected = (workerCount \* ((1.0 - 0.2) \* (0.6 - 0.3) + 0.3)) = 81m > youngWorkerFatalitiesPreHospital = (workersInfected \* 0.8) \* 0.0015 = 97,200 > olderWorkerFatalitiesPreHospital = (workersInfected \* 0.2) \* 0.05 = 810,000 > youngWorkerFatalities = youngWorkerFatalitiesPreHospital \* ((1 - 0.2) \* 0.5 \* 2 + 1) = 174,960 > olderWorkerFatalities = olderWorkerFatalitiesPreHospital \* ((1 - 0.2) \* 0.5 \* 2 + 1) = 1,458,000 > totalFatalities = youngWorkerFatalities + olderWorkerFatalities = 1,632,960 > > lossesToDeath = totalFatalities \* $2500 \* 12 \* 20 = $979.8b > totalUnemployed = (0.2 \* (0.15 - 0.5) + 0.5) \* workerCount = 78m > totalMonthsUnemployed = (0.2 \* (6 - 3) + 3) = 3.6 > totalLossesToUnemployment = totalMonthsUnemployed \* totalUnemployed \* $2500 = $702b > totalLoss = lossesToDeath + totalLossesToUnemployment = $1.7t > > Not a particularly rigorous analysis but the biggest difference seems to be life rather than economics. Although the calculations are very impressive, they are based on some sort of Labor Theory of Value with no consideration of subsidiary effects. For example, if healthy people don’t travel and therefore airlines, hotels, restaurants, Uber all go under, then millions of healthy people lose their jobs. Your model only accounts for sick people who become unemployed due to illness. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2020, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/6 "2020-04-04T02:20:31Z")
On review, I see that you tried to account for this with assumption #2, but 15% with current restrictions in place for any prolonged period of time is absurdly underrated. No way the economy can virtually shut down with only 15% unemployment. We are almost there NOW, after two weeks of this. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2020, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/7 "2020-04-04T02:33:21Z")
[Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560). > [@](#): > > Abstract > What are the economic consequences of an influenza pandemic? And given the pandemic, what are the economic costs and benefits of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI)? Using geographic variation in mortality during the 1918 Flu Pandemic in the U.S., we find that more exposed areas experience a sharp and persistent decline in economic activity. The estimates imply that the pandemic reduced manufacturing output by 18%. The downturn is driven by both supply and demand-side channels. Further, building on findings from the epidemiology literature establishing that NPIs decrease influenza mortality, we use variation in the timing and intensity of NPIs across U.S. cities to study their economic effects. **We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over. Our findings thus indicate that NPIs not only lower mortality; they also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic.** Emphasis mine. Read the PDF linked to on that page: the abstract above gives the main conclusion. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2020, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/8 "2020-04-04T03:04:08Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > Although the calculations are very impressive, they are based on some sort of Labor Theory of Value with no consideration of subsidiary effects. > > For example, if healthy people don’t travel and therefore airlines, hotels, restaurants, Uber all go under, then millions of healthy people lose their jobs. Your model only accounts for sick people who become unemployed due to illness. Yep, it’s a calculation more along the lines of a Fermi estimate than a simulation or anything. ---
**Author:** ![Ale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/f19dbf/32.png) [@Ale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ale)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2020, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/9 "2020-04-04T03:45:36Z")
> [@russian\_heel](#): > > Interesting interview with a MIT economist who reviewed the economic implications of the Spanish flu 100 years ago. His basic premise was the pandemic already ruined the economy, but American cities that acted the fastest and put in social distancing measures the longest bounced back more than those that tried the quick and easy way out: > > [No tradeoff: Spanish flu study shows social distancing and strong economy go hand in hand | Expert Q&A](https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-covid-pandemic-1918-spanish-flu-economic-impact-mit-study-20200402.html) > > Admittedly it was a different world back then with smaller global chains and coming off a catastrophic war. That said, 1918 American cities were also cut off from each other but with decent supply chains between them so perhaps in some ways they can be compared to today’s nations. > > The good news he points out is that many sectors of today’s quarantine economy remain active due to the Internet. Not mentioned is that today we also have stronger financial tools to help speed recovery. > > In other words we can rush back to work and kill millions which itself could wreck the economy anyway or take our time, be fucking patient, save lives and bounce back and recover stronger and wiser. > Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Using the Spanish Flu to compare is not a good metric, since that disease killed mostly young adults as opposed to COVID-19 that has the biggest impact on elders ([99% of pandemic influenza deaths in the U.S. occurred in people under 65](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Patterns_of_fatality)). Broadly, from the economic perspective, the first killed the productive population and the second pensioners. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2020, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/10 "2020-04-04T16:22:08Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > For example, if healthy people don’t travel and therefore airlines, hotels, restaurants, Uber all go under, then millions of healthy people lose their jobs. Your model only accounts for sick people who become unemployed due to illness. Correction: The number of unemployed is unrelated to illness, just to how strict the measures are for dealing with the pandemic. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2020, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/11 "2020-04-04T18:14:06Z")
> [@Ale](#): > > Using the Spanish Flu to compare is not a good metric, since that disease killed mostly young adults as opposed to COVID-19 that has the biggest impact on elders ([99% of pandemic influenza deaths in the U.S. occurred in people under 65](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Patterns_of_fatality)). Broadly, from the economic perspective, the first killed the productive population and the second pensioners. Hell the “productive” population these days are a bunch of debt serfs. Think of all the debt we could get off the books. ---
**Author:** ![etasyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/9f8e36/32.png) [@etasyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/etasyde)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2020, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/12 "2020-04-04T19:13:26Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Hell the “productive” population these days are a bunch of debt serfs. Think of all the debt we could get off the books. Why would they want to destroy that much currency? Default, as would still be the case with death, is the _worst_ way to destroy currency, too. Nobody wants to make this deflation _worse_, if anything The Powers That Be want to loan the serfs _more_. Debt is _good_ for the wealthy. Not so much for the country, but purchasing power knows no borders. Who cares what happens to the serfs stuck in those countries anyway? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2020, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/13 "2020-04-04T19:20:37Z")
> [@etasyde](#): > > Why would they want to destroy that much currency? Default, as would still be the case with death, is the _worst_ way to destroy currency, too. Nobody wants to make this deflation _worse_, if anything The Powers That Be want to loan the serfs _more_. > > Debt is _good_ for the wealthy. Not so much for the country, but purchasing power knows no borders. Who cares what happens to the serfs stuck in those countries anyway? That’s certainly one way to look at it. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2020, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/14 "2020-04-04T20:01:15Z")
It’s not only a matter of how many people would die. It’s also a matter of how many people would be too sick to work for some time – a much higher number. If all those people get sick over a short period of time, even if most of them recover eventually, the economy’s still going to take a massive hit. And bear in mind that people who feel like hell don’t usually go out and play, either. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2020, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/15 "2020-04-04T22:47:03Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > These are not the people we want to flush down the toilet. There should be NO categories of people we should want to flush down the toilet. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2020, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/16 "2020-04-07T13:38:13Z")
> [@Broomstick](#): > > There should be NO categories of people we should want to flush down the toilet. In this context, the caveat “even from a soulless economic-benefit perspective” is understood. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2020, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/17 "2020-04-07T14:47:26Z")
Is there any way to calculate/estimate the costs incurred in (hopefully) saving how many lives/years of life? Something like (completely made up #s) - global/US economy/governments incurred $20 Trillion in losses/expenditures resulting from shutdowns. Those actions are expected to save $10 million lives compared to if nothing had been done. ---
**Author:** ![zimaane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a3d4f5/32.png) [@zimaane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zimaane)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2020, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/18 "2020-04-07T15:07:25Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > Is there any way to calculate/estimate the costs incurred in (hopefully) saving how many lives/years of life? > > Something like (completely made up #s) - global/US economy/governments incurred $20 Trillion in losses/expenditures resulting from shutdowns. Those actions are expected to save $10 million lives compared to if nothing had been done. One approach is the Quality Adjusted Life Year: > **[Quality-adjusted life year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality-adjusted_life_year)** > > The quality-adjusted life year (QALY) is a generic measure of disease burden, including both the quality and the quantity of life lived. It is used in economic evaluation to assess the value of medical interventions. One QALY equates to one year in perfect health. QALY scores range from 1 (perfect health) to 0 (dead). QALYs can be used to inform health insurance coverage determinations, treatment decisions, to evaluate programs, and to set priorities for future programs. > Critics argue that the Q... The burden of a disease is the number of years lost times the quality factor which is 1 for someone in perfect health, and goes towards zero as health is poorer. For COVID 19, a rough estimate for the U.S. might be: 100,000 deaths Average age of death = 60 Expected average of death in the absence of COVID 19 = 72 Average quality adjustment = 2/3 Burden = 100,000\*(72 - 60)\*(2/3) = 800,000 ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2020, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/19 "2020-04-07T15:18:25Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > It’s not only a matter of how many people would die. It’s also a matter of how many people would be too sick to work for some time – a much higher number. If all those people get sick over a short period of time, even if most of them recover eventually, the economy’s still going to take a massive hit. And bear in mind that people who feel like hell don’t usually go out and play, either. It’s also panic and mistrust. Currently the economic impact is terrible, but things are, relatively speaking, under control. There are certain demographics that think this is all a hoax and a conspiracy, but for the most part people respect the need to isolate. That will make it much easier, when the time is right, to begin relaxing restrictions. If done right, people will also trust the authorities if another short period of isolation is needed later this year or in 2021. There is a limit on how long this can go before people say “fuck this” but we aren’t near that yet. But if the government were to just say this week “Alright, all clear. Everyone get out and spend money and work,” the pandemic would quickly rage out of control and worst case scenarios would become real. The economic impact of all that death and overload of the health care system would be bad - but there would also be a total loss of trust in government. Everyone would know a family member or friend who was dying of COVID-19 and panic would set in. Survivalism would become commonplace. Busineses would shut down out of fear. When the government issued instructions, even ones that made sense, no one would believe it. It would become unmanageable. ---
**Author:** ![Tatterdemalion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/43a26b/32.png) [@Tatterdemalion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tatterdemalion)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2020, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011/20 "2020-04-07T15:35:02Z")
Not to mention that dogs and cats would start living together and jointly feasting on the bodies of their late owners. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-sacrificing-grandma-by-opening-up-again-might-not-save-the-economy/851011.md?page=2)