# Why so much speculation regarding Israel? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 3, 2011, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056 "2011-02-03T19:07:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![AshenLady](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/94ad74/32.png) [@AshenLady](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AshenLady)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056/1 "2011-02-03T19:07:35Z")
With the conflagration going on in Egypt, why is there so much speculation about what this means for the country of Israel? People who aren’t Jewish are always interested in knowing what is in it for Israel. Pro or con, there is always an unbelievable chatter regarding how Israel feels about this, that or the other thing. No one cares much about what the Saudi’s think, or the people of Quatar think, but Israel is always a big deal. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056/2 "2011-02-03T19:24:15Z")
Because Israel and Egypt have been at peace for a long time, and Israel (and others) are concerned that if there is a change in regime, the new regime might be less inclined towards peace than the current one is. Saudi is not a neighbor of Egypt, and doesn’t have a history of conflict with Egypt, so what they think is less relevant at this point. -XT ---
**Author:** ![toadspittle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c0e974/32.png) [@toadspittle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/toadspittle)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056/3 "2011-02-03T19:24:25Z")
a) They’re our biggest ally in the region b) They have a history of internal and external conflict, and that conflict is notably unresolved People are waiting to see if the other shoe is going to drop and things either (1) heat up with the Palestinians (after a period of relative quiet) in sympathy with the other Muslim populations who are demanding governmental change or (2) heat up with their neighbors (i.e., if lots of Arab countries suddenly undergo regime change, it could very likely shift those countries’ foreign relations with Israel—possibly for the worse). And, not only is there general unrest among many of Israel’s neighbors, but Egypt has for a while now been Israel’s most reasonable neighbor—and now that neighbor is having a stroke. We don’t know what that neighbor is going to be like after he gets out of the hospital. The whole personality might have changed. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056/4 "2011-02-03T19:27:07Z")
c) They are one of the few functioning democracies in the Middle East. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056/5 "2011-02-03T19:31:52Z")
> [@AshenLady](#): > > With the conflagration going on in Egypt, why is there so much speculation about what this means for the country of Israel? People who aren’t Jewish are always interested in knowing what is in it for Israel. Pro or con, there is always an unbelievable chatter regarding how Israel feels about this, that or the other thing. No one cares much about what the Saudi’s think, or the people of Quatar think, but Israel is always a big deal. Because the Egyptians are far more likely to actually find themselves at war with Israel, rather than Quatar, if whoever takes over in Egypt repudiates the current peace deal - as the Moslem Brotherhood (most organized among the protesters - and Hamas is an offshoot of them) have announced that they will do. A resumption of actuall conventional war in the ME which might actually have existential consequences for Israel requires Egyptian participation, as none of Israel’s other neighbours are in any position to, alone or in combination, take on Israel offensively. In all of the previous ME wars ('48, '56, '67, '73) in which the Arabs took an offensive stance, Egypt was front-and-centre, leading to the quip that the Palestinians were determined to “fight to the last Egyptian” against Israel. Under Sadat, then the current fellow, Egypt has had a 30 year peace deal with Israel, brokered by the US in order to reduce the possibility of a war which coulkd trash the region (Israel has nukes) in return for which both Israel and Egypt have been getting billions of US dollars as a sweetener. A reversal of that makes war - a real, conventional war with existential and possibly even nuclear consequences for the region, rather than the small affairs in Lebanon and Gaza - an actual possibility again. The region is a vital one for US interests. A general war could destabalize the whole ME, and possibly even mess with the sale of oil (the '73 war lead to the famous oil embargo of the '70s with bad results for the world economy). That’s why. ---
**Author:** ![shiftless](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9c0ed/32.png) [@shiftless](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/shiftless)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056/6 "2011-02-03T19:40:21Z")
Funny, I was wondering why I hadn’t heard anyone speculating on and on about how this affects Israel, one of Egypt’s neighbors and our biggest ally in the region. All the news I’ve seen has been about the internal affairs of Egypt and how Obama is, or is not, reacting to it. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056/7 "2011-02-03T20:00:23Z")
> [@AL](#): > > People who aren’t Jewish are always interested in knowing what is in it for Israel. Pro or con, there is always an unbelievable chatter regarding how Israel feels about this What is the proper amount of “chatter” amongst us goyim on this subject? ---
**Author:** ![Mighty\_Mouse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mighty_mouse/32/7776_2.png) [@Mighty\_Mouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mighty_Mouse)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056/8 "2011-02-03T20:02:44Z")
> [@shiftless](#): > > Funny, I was wondering why I hadn’t heard anyone speculating on and on about how this affects Israel, one of Egypt’s neighbors and our biggest ally in the region. All the news I’ve seen has been about the internal affairs of Egypt and how Obama is, or is not, reacting to it. Der Joos are sneaky that way. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![AshenLady](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/94ad74/32.png) [@AshenLady](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AshenLady)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056/9 "2011-02-03T20:15:42Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > Because the Egyptians are far more likely to actually find themselves at war with Israel, rather than Quatar, if whoever takes over in Egypt repudiates the current peace deal - as the Moslem Brotherhood (most organized among the protesters - and Hamas is an offshoot of them) have announced that they will do. > > A resumption of actuall conventional war in the ME which might actually have existential consequences for Israel requires Egyptian participation, as none of Israel’s other neighbours are in any position to, alone or in combination, take on Israel offensively. > > In all of the previous ME wars ('48, '56, '67, '73) in which the Arabs took an offensive stance, Egypt was front-and-centre, leading to the quip that the Palestinians were determined to “fight to the last Egyptian” against Israel. Under Sadat, then the current fellow, Egypt has had a 30 year peace deal with Israel, brokered by the US in order to reduce the possibility of a war which coulkd trash the region (Israel has nukes) in return for which both Israel and Egypt have been getting billions of US dollars as a sweetener. > > A reversal of that makes war - a real, conventional war with existential and possibly even nuclear consequences for the region, rather than the small affairs in Lebanon and Gaza - an actual possibility again. > > The region is a vital one for US interests. A general war could destabalize the whole ME, and possibly even mess with the sale of oil (the '73 war lead to the famous oil embargo of the '70s with bad results for the world economy). > > That’s why. Thanks. I was in Israel in October of 1973 as a teenager. It wasn’t fun but I expect Israel to be blamed for the “sins” of Egypt, no matter where this leads. That’s why I proffered the question. Israel, somehow always gets blamed for any and everything that happens in the ME. However, the overthrow of the Shah of Iran didn’t help matters for the USA either and now we are dealing with a bunch of megalomaniacs who are just as dangerous as anything that could pop up in Egypt. ---
**Author:** ![AshenLady](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/94ad74/32.png) [@AshenLady](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AshenLady)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056/10 "2011-02-03T20:16:56Z")
> [@Mighty\_Mouse](#): > > Der Joos are sneaky that way. > 😉 Pfffftttttttt…sneaky, my eye…:eek: Jews weren’t very good at sneaking out of Europe pre WWII. ---
**Author:** ![newcomer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/e5b9ba/32.png) [@newcomer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/newcomer)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056/11 "2011-02-03T20:46:52Z")
> [@AshenLady](#): > > It wasn’t fun but I expect Israel to be blamed for the “sins” of Egypt, no matter where this leads. Cite? ---
**Author:** ![AshenLady](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/94ad74/32.png) [@AshenLady](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AshenLady)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056/12 "2011-02-03T20:48:02Z")
> [@newcomer](#): > > Cite? Remains to be seen…just an opinion for now. ---
**Author:** ![newcomer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/e5b9ba/32.png) [@newcomer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/newcomer)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056/13 "2011-02-03T20:55:27Z")
> [@AshenLady](#): > > Remains to be seen…just an opinion for now. Great. Just wanted to record where this meme originated. ---
**Author:** ![wmfellows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/c2a13f/32.png) [@wmfellows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wmfellows)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056/14 "2011-02-03T21:04:19Z")
Queer in non-USA media Israel discussion seems to me tangential at best. You lot have a lot of issues. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056/15 "2011-02-03T21:08:49Z")
We have a lot of issues. We are in a 12 step program, but sadly it’s like herding cats to get some of our citizens to go from step 0 to step 1… -XT ---
**Author:** ![Argent\_Towers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e8c25b/32.png) [@Argent\_Towers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Argent_Towers)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056/16 "2011-02-03T23:01:47Z")
> [@newcomer](#): > > Cite? How the fuck can you have a cite for _expecting_ something to happen? You are totally misapplying the concept of asking for a cite. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056/17 "2011-02-03T23:15:02Z")
I agree that asking for a cite on an opinion isn’t going to be particularly helpful (‘my post is my cite!’), but it’s an odd statement/opinion. I don’t see how any but a complete loony would be blaming Israel for the riots in Egypt. What would be the basis for such a claim (leaving aside the ‘Jews are in charge of everything’ mentality)? -XT ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2011, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056/18 "2011-02-03T23:41:57Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > I agree that asking for a cite on an opinion isn’t going to be particularly helpful (‘my post is my cite!’), but it’s an odd statement/opinion. I don’t see how any but a complete loony would be blaming Israel for the riots in Egypt. What would be the basis for such a claim (leaving aside the ‘Jews are in charge of everything’ mentality)? > > -XT Unfortunately Egypt is extremely anti-Semitic. It forcibly expelled it’s entire Jewish population under Nasser, has had senior “moderate” clerics proclaim the “the Jews” are the descendants of apes and pigs and the Mubarak government broadcast a miniseries about the Protocols of the Elders of Zion which treated them as legitimate historical documents. Therefore, I can understand Ashenlady’s fears. ---
**Author:** ![AshenLady](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/94ad74/32.png) [@AshenLady](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AshenLady)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2011, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056/19 "2011-02-04T00:08:48Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > Unfortunately Egypt is extremely anti-Semitic. It forcibly expelled it’s entire Jewish population under Nasser, has had senior “moderate” clerics proclaim the “the Jews” are the descendants of apes and pigs and the Mubarak government broadcast a miniseries about the Protocols of the Elders of Zion which treated them as legitimate historical documents. > > Therefore, I can understand Ashenlady’s fears. Thanks…Jews have been blamed for the holocaust; nothing would surprise me when it comes to blaming Jews for this, that and the other thing. ---
**Author:** ![AshenLady](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/94ad74/32.png) [@AshenLady](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AshenLady)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2011, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056/20 "2011-02-04T00:18:07Z")
> [@AshenLady](#): > > Thanks…Jews have been blamed for the holocaust; nothing would surprise me when it comes to blaming Jews for this, that and the other thing. > **[Redirect Notice](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=18&ved=0CEsQFjAHOAo&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.jewishfamilyservice.net%2Fjewish%2Fhow-were-jewish-people-blamed-during-the-holocaust&ei=AUVLTbfoBoWKlwe4yuD3Dw&usg=AFQjCNHC3x4rR7MaWxKD4IEZmLJgtvfYQw&sig2=zt6VjYpeszZG83jD0kH9Fw)** [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-so-much-speculation-regarding-israel/570056.md?page=2)