# Why the "emerging Democratic majority" isn't happening **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 4, 2015, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842 "2015-02-04T22:11:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2015, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/221 "2015-02-16T19:11:24Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It could also be that Obama brought a unique coalition and the midterm demographic makeup is the norm when Obama is not on the ticket. I guess we’ll know for sure in 2016. The midterm demographic is definitely not the norm (Presidential elections are never nearly that low in turnout), but 2012 and 2008 might not be either. We shall see. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2015, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/222 "2015-02-16T21:05:15Z")
The Democratic majority is happening and is indeed inevitable. Between changing demographics and past Republican policies, that majority is assured. Demographics- The country is becoming less white and less rural every year. Once the percentage of the electorate that is white gun loving Bible thumping hayseeds falls below a critical threshold, it will not be possible to elect a Republican president. New England, New York, and the West Coast are the great wasteland for Republicans. The Great Lakes nearly as much so. As Texas and Florida become browner, they also become bluer. Winning Nebraska, Kansas, and Alaska every year simply isn’t enough. Women’s issues- Sure, some women, like some men, are anti-abortion. But for those who favor it or are indifferent to it, the notion of having the shaming ultrasound wand shoved up your vagina for no medical reason is abhorrent. Likewise the Republican tendency to want to resurrect the contraception debate. Race- Between voter ID laws and restrictive voting hours, the Republicans have made it clear that they would rather prevent blacks from voting than trying to win their votes. Sure, there are a few Oreos like Allen West and Ben Carson, but when you look at the faces in the Republican convention in 2016, it’s going to look like it always does, as white as Sarah Palin’s thighs. Every time an unarmed black teen gets shot by police and the right wingers dance for joy, it’s just another nail in the coffin for getting black GOP votes. Immigration- It’s hard to imagine the Republicans doing worse on immigration issues. Sure, they’ll nominate Jeb Bush, who shows some humanity about this. But the party as a whole continually paints the picture of the great unwashed Mexican horde sneaking over the border to take away American jobs and get freebies from the government. The predictable revulsion to Obama’s overture to Cuba amplifies this. Wealth Inequality- When you are perpetually trying to sell the idea of cutting taxes for the rich and telling the rest of us that we may get a crumb or two falling from the chins of the fat cats, it’s hard to see Republicans winning votes from the poor or middle classes. In short, the Republican majority in Congress is to be short-lived. When the 2020 elections result in more Democratic state legislatures and governors, the gerrymandering will be mitigated somewhat and Democrats will once again control all the branches of government. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2015, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/223 "2015-02-16T22:00:04Z")
If Democrats lose 70% of the white vote, it’ll take a lot longer than 2020. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2015, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/224 "2015-02-16T22:19:07Z")
Indeed! And if they lose 95% of the white vote, it will get even harder! And if pigs fly, the man who owns ten thousand umbrellas will be very, very rich! ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2015, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/225 "2015-02-16T22:21:37Z")
They lost 60% in 2014. And it’s getting worse. I’m not trying to say that demographic dominance won’t happen, just that there’s no way to know, because coalitions shuffle all the time due to changing circumstances. The white vote continues to go more GOP, the Latino vote bounces back and forth, and the youth vote has also been trending more GOP. This thread just explains why it’s not happening RIGHT NOW. And also why it won’t “just happen”. Democrats will actually have to persuade to win votes. waiting to get bailed out by a changing electorate won’t get them very far. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2015, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/226 "2015-02-16T22:22:21Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > And if pigs fly, the man who owns ten thousand umbrellas will be very, very rich! Then he will probably vote Republican. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2015, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/227 "2015-02-16T22:26:59Z")
The fact prominent Republicans are even using that as a sort of a revised Southern Strategy of sorts to stay relevant shows you exactly that the only appeal they have is to scared white people. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2015, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/228 "2015-02-16T22:27:18Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > They lost 60% in 2014. And it’s getting worse. I’m not trying to say that demographic dominance won’t happen, just that there’s no way to know, because coalitions shuffle all the time due to changing circumstances. The white vote continues to go more GOP, the Latino vote bounces back and forth, and the youth vote has also been trending more GOP. This thread just explains why it’s not happening RIGHT NOW. And also why it won’t “just happen”. Democrats will actually have to persuade to win votes. waiting to get bailed out by a changing electorate won’t get them very far. How about they simply continue to be more rationale and propose the best ideas? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2015, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/229 "2015-02-16T22:32:14Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > The fact prominent Republicans are even using that as a sort of a revised Southern Strategy of sorts to stay relevant shows you exactly that the only appeal they have is to scared white people. Republicans haven’t even really been doing anything. Democrats have alienated white voters on their own. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2015, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/230 "2015-02-16T22:49:22Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Republicans haven’t even really been doing anything. Democrats have alienated white voters on their own. Complete nonsense. One or two elections is not a trend. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2015, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/231 "2015-02-16T23:55:15Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > And if pigs fly, the man who owns ten thousand umbrellas will be very, very rich! I’d rather be the dude selling shotguns and rifles . . . ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2015, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/232 "2015-02-16T23:56:15Z")
Please adaher, tell us more about these “economic issues”. Not the “less taxes smaller government or something” abstractions either. Tell us the nitty gritty details of what a successful Republican party would cut from the budget without being repulsive to whoever you think a HENRY is. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2015, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/233 "2015-02-17T01:05:50Z")
THat’s the beauty of budget cutting. You don’t have to cut, you just have to let the economy grow faster than the budget. THe Republicans have successfully done that every year since 2011 and their support among HENRYs has risen. There are some things that can be cut, namely duplicate programs of which the GAO identified: > **[Report: Redundant federal programs waste billions](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/04/09/wasteful-government-spending/2063511/)** > > Billions are being spent on duplicate federal programs, congressional auditors find There’s also federal health care programs, which Democrats are cutting while lying about it. Oh yeah, when Democrats do it, it’s “savings”. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2015, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/234 "2015-02-17T01:57:15Z")
And if you do it, without damaging our healthcare, it will be a “miracle”. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2015, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/235 "2015-02-17T19:13:15Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Republicans haven’t even really been doing anything. Democrats have alienated white voters on their own. That’s an overly simplistic view that is not supported when you look within the numbers: > [@](#): > > …the national exit poll finding for white voters was misleading. Nearly all of Mr. Obama’s weakness was attributable to the South and Appalachia, where Mr. Obama suffered catastrophic losses compared with prior Democrats. Mr. Obama in fact performed quite well among white voters outside of the South, easily winning overwhelmingly white states like Iowa, Minnesota, Oregon, Wisconsin and New Hampshire, which were all extremely competitive in one or both of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. The state exit polls most likely overstated Mr. Obama’s weakness among white voters as well, often supposing unrealistic levels of nonwhite turnout. > > [New York Times](http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/21/upshot/hispanic-voters-are-important-for-republicans-but-not-indispensable.html?abt=0002&abg=1) Obama did a lot worse than Democrats usually did in the South but did well in states that were very white elsewhere. As Business Insider says, “[Barack Obama Never Had A Problem With White Voters.](http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-white-vote-exit-polls-election-ohio-wisconsin-iowa-2012-11)” My impression is that at least some measurable amount of the white votes that went against Obama in the south might have been attributable to his melanin which, barring an unlikely Cory Booker run, doesn’t seem like it’ll be a problem this time out for the Democrats. I hope Ben Carson runs for the shits and giggles, however. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2015, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/236 "2015-02-17T22:09:50Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > John Judis, co-author of [_The Emerging Democratic Majority_](http://www.amazon.com/Emerging-Democratic-Majority-John-Judis/dp/0743254783) (2004), now writes about [“The Emerging Republican Advantage.”](http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/the-emerging-republican-advantage-20150130) Interview [here](http://www.salon.com/2015/02/11/it%e2%80%99s_going_to_take_a_crisis_why_republicans_have_a_stranglehold_on_u_s_politics/). Regarding which [Michael Lind writes:](http://www.salon.com/2015/02/17/doomed_by_the_south_why_the_emerging_democratic_majority_may_never_happen/) > [@](#): > > Judis and Teixeira are brilliant analysts of politics, but I never believed in their emerging Democratic majority thesis. The idea of the “coalition of the ascendant” is based chiefly on the premise that Latino voters, the most rapidly growing share of the U.S. electorate, will continue to be Democratic partisans as their share of the population increases over time. This assumes that Latinos, in their voting behavior, will be more like black voters, the most loyal Democratic constituency, than like European-American “white ethnics” such as Irish-Americans and Italian-Americans, who deserted New Deal liberalism for Reagan conservatism as they assimilated into mainstream society and moved up in income and out to the suburbs. (A British saying had it: “Give an Irishman a horse and he’ll vote Tory”). > > \ > > One result of Latino assimilation may be the collapse of the very idea of a “nonwhite majority” except as a meaningless statistical category. Already a majority of Latinos identify themselves as “white” when given the option on census forms. As I argued in a 1996 New York Times Magazine essay, “The Beige and the Black,” because of the depth of anti-black racism in the U.S., America’s informal racial caste consciousness has always been binary—not whites vs. nonwhites, but blacks vs. non-blacks. The “white” category has been an elastic one that has expanded to incorporate successive non-black immigrant groups—first European “ethnics” and in the future, perhaps, Latinos and Asian-Americans. > > \ > > What is more, immigrants do not assimilate to a generic American culture. They assimilate to distinct American regional cultures, which to this day are shaped by the values of the original British-American settlers—reformist Puritans in New England, the populist Scots-Irish in Appalachia, the oligarchs of the coastal South. > > Even within the same denomination or religion—Protestant, Catholic or Jewish—Southerners are more conservative than Northerners. In the 19th century, American Baptists and Methodists split into regional denominations over the issue of slavery. Southern Jews have traditionally been more conservative than Northern Jews. Bobby Jindal, an Indian-American from Louisiana, is a typical right-wing Louisiana politician. Oh, and though you didn’t hear a lot about this from the progressives on MSNBC, in 2014 the first elected black senator from the South since the Civil War was Tim Scott, a conservative Republican. > > Already we are seeing this pattern of regional cultural assimilation repeat itself with Latinos. In the recent gubernatorial election in Texas, 44 percent of Latino voters—and 50 percent of male Latino voters—supported the Republican candidate, Greg Abbott, against the Democratic candidate, Wendy Davis. To be sure, the Latinos who vote in Texas today tend to be more affluent and assimilated than Texan Latinos as a whole—but for that very reason they are better surrogates for future Latino voters than are recent immigrants are who not citizens or do not vote. Of course – all of the above disregards the effects of immigration as a polarizing political issue. I daresay the Pubs will continue to alienate even assimilated Southern Latinos if they don’t change any on that point. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2015, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/237 "2015-02-18T00:01:23Z")
This is true as long as it’s an open sore. Which is why Republicans have often accused Democrats of wanting the issue more than they want a solution. When it’s not an open sore, Latinos tend to be more of a swing group than overwhelmingly Democrat. When a Republican President actually embraces a liberal immigration policy, as Bush did, Republicans do more than well enough. If Democrats lose whites by 20 points and Republicans only lose Latinos by 10, Republicans win. Not enough African-Americans to make up the difference. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2015, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/238 "2015-02-18T00:09:18Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > When a Republican President actually embraces a liberal immigration policy, as Bush did . . . . . . his own party’s base goes ballistic. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2015, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/239 "2015-02-18T00:28:21Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > This is true as long as it’s an open sore. Which is why Republicans have often accused Democrats of wanting the issue more than they want a solution. When it’s not an open sore, Latinos tend to be more of a swing group than overwhelmingly Democrat. When a Republican President actually embraces a liberal immigration policy, as Bush did, Republicans do more than well enough. If Democrats lose whites by 20 points and Republicans only lose Latinos by 10, Republicans win. Not enough African-Americans to make up the difference. Republicans could make the issue go away by _actually cooperating with a sane immigration policy_. I’ll agree that this (sane policy by the Republicans) might actually be bad for the Democrats, but that doesn’t mean it’s not the right thing to do. Fortunately for the Democrats (but unfortunately for America and for most immigrants who are decent folks) Republicans in congress do not seem inclined in the least to cooperate with a sane immigration policy. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2015, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/240 "2015-02-18T00:55:24Z")
What would a sane immigration policy look like? Are you saying that the immigration policy agreed upon by huge bipartisan majorities, affirmed several times in every administration, is an insane policy? If so, then the immigration reform bill is also an insane policy, since the only change to our system of any significance is to amnesty illegals. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842.md?page=13)