# Why the "emerging Democratic majority" isn't happening **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 4, 2015, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842 "2015-02-04T22:11:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2015, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/261 "2015-02-18T16:33:26Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > They voted to build a wall. They voted for biometric entry/exit systems. “They” screamed about raising taxes to insure public schools had textbooks that weren’t twenty years out of date, to insure interstate highways didn’t have sinkholes that an RV could fall into, and to make sure veterans weren’t drinking Draino to stop the flashbacks from the last war-for-oil, but by God “they” wanted the American people to pony up for Berlin Wall 2.0 and a Total Recall-style X-Ray checkpoint. :smack: > [@](#): > > They voted for employer sanctions. …right up until their golf buddies quietly informed them of the lettuce pickers and the nannies they had off the books. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2015, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/262 "2015-02-18T16:34:38Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > They are already working in industries that natives barely show their face in. Which natives…Apache, Sioux, Cherokee…? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2015, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/263 "2015-02-18T17:19:33Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > They are already working in industries that natives barely show their face in. Give them work permits and their job search is broadened to include the majority of companies that obey the law and who employ a lot of native workers. If you are American and wash dishes, you won’t be doing it after that bill passes. How does this work? Do dishwashers make huge salaries, and those poor restaurants are just desperately waiting for someone who will take less than $10 per hour? I don’t buy it. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2015, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/264 "2015-02-18T18:06:10Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > They are already working in industries that natives barely show their face in. Give them work permits and their job search is broadened to include the majority of companies that obey the law and who employ a lot of native workers. If you are American and wash dishes, you won’t be doing it after that bill passes. In practically all previous waves of immigration to the U.S. people screamed, “They’ll take our jobs!” But it never seemed to work out that way. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2015, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/265 "2015-02-18T18:11:26Z")
Funny. I seem to recall that Americans used to do the jobs that they supposedly won’t do anymore. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2015, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/266 "2015-02-18T18:25:58Z")
Any discussion of the immigrants already here, working but undocumented, has nothing to do with anyone “taking jobs” (since any jobs taken are already ‘took’ by working immigrants). And if we bring them out of the shadows, then that means they can do things like start small businesses openly, in addition to fully taking part in the economy and society. I know that I’d love to see another lunch stand in my neighborhood. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2015, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/267 "2015-02-18T18:32:15Z")
I don’t disagree, I just recognize that Americans have actual reasons for not wanting higher immigration levels. The CBO projected that we’ll add 16 million more people than we otherwise would have by 2033 if the bill passes: > **[CBO: Immigration bill could cut deficits](https://money.cnn.com/2013/06/18/news/economy/immigration-reform/index.html)** > > Bipartisan Senate reform bill would likely reduce deficits by $175 billion over first 10 years and by roughly $700 billion in the second decade, nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office says. Now part of being a sovereign country is controlling who can come to live here. And part of being a sovereign democracy is that the people have a say in that. Very few people want more immigration than we have now. Also, the short term effect of a mass legalization and an initial flood of new immigrants would do this: > [@](#): > > In addition, the CBO estimates that the bill, while increasing economic output, would also decrease average wages before 2025 but increase them thereafter. It would also “slightly raise” the unemployment through 2020. This is the kind of thing that requires more input from the voters before we enact it. But anyway, back to my original point on the subject, if unemployment and wages go down over the next 5-10 years after the immigration bill passes, that’s going to cause some anger. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/268 "2015-02-19T03:23:59Z")
> [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](#): > > This is the kind of story with a happy ending that **D’Anconia** likes: You are way out of line, here. Stop it. [/Moderating] ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/269 "2015-02-19T03:28:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Funny. I seem to recall that Americans used to do the jobs that they supposedly won’t do anymore. So? Cultures change. One of the jobs that is recognized as having a labor shortage for which a business owner can apply for permission to hire a non-citizen is cowboy. It’s hard to get more “American” than that, yet Americans are failing to fill openings for that job. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_stamos_left_ear/32/3198_2.png) [@John\_Stamos\_Left\_Ear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Stamos_Left_Ear)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/270 "2015-02-19T13:50:48Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > You are way out of line, here. The person who advocates policies that cause the death of children is shown the results of said policies but I am out of line for pointing it out, with a cite? Do we have an incredulous smiley here? ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2015, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/271 "2015-02-19T17:15:29Z")
No, but we have warnings and infractions and such. It is very poor form, and an underhanded debating technique, to imply that one’s debate opponent derives any form of gratification from tragedy or whatever. I don’t want to see it in Elections. Debate the post. If you do that you shouldn’t have to resort to personal attacks or implications that your opponent is some form of monster. All that does is damage your ability to further debate in good faith. So don’t do it. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/272 "2015-02-25T01:47:30Z")
Of course, demographic change – **generational,** not ethnic – could still produce a solid Democratic majority. For one thing, the [“Steadfast Conservatives”](http://www.people-press.org/2014/06/26/appendix-1-typology-group-profiles/) are an elderly demographic (31% are 65 or older), and, as they die off, are not likely to be supplemented from younger generations in commensurate numbers – because, for another, the [Millenials](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/09/25/the-gops-millennial-problem-runs-deep/) are turning out to be more liberal than any elder generation (41% consistently liberal or mostly liberal, 15% consistently or mostly conservative). ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/273 "2015-02-25T01:51:07Z")
That has everything to do with social conservatism + the economic situation of millenials. As in, dire. People tend to get protective of their money once they earn it. People who aren’t earning money but are living with their folks, as a third of millenials are by some counts, are going to tend to be less irritated by taxes. Once their economic prospects start looking up they’ll vote their pocketbook. A country where people are getting richer will always be friendly ground for an anti-tax party. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/274 "2015-02-25T02:04:02Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That has everything to do with social conservatism + the economic situation of millenials. As in, dire. People tend to get protective of their money once they earn it. People who aren’t earning money but are living with their folks, as a third of millenials are by some counts, are going to tend to be less irritated by taxes. > > Once their economic prospects start looking up . . . The way things are now, that would take a lot more than a booming economy; we’re getting there now but only the 1% is getting any richer by it, the majority have been income-stagnant for decades, boom or bust. To improve Millennials’ economic prospects would take a left-progressive revolution in economic, fiscal, tax, regulatory and public-investment policies. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/275 "2015-02-25T02:10:38Z")
Or, the problem could be that all job growth since 2000 has gone to immigrants. Cheaper labor=richer 1%. Now what could we do to turn that around? Wouldn’t take a progressive solution. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/276 "2015-02-25T02:40:26Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Or, the problem could be that all job growth since 2000 has gone to immigrants. Cheaper labor=richer 1%. Now what could we do to turn that around? Wouldn’t take a progressive solution. [Actually:](http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Immigration_myths_and_facts#Immigrants_take_jobs_and_opportunity_away_from_Americans) > [@](#): > > **Immigrants take jobs and opportunity away from Americans** > > - The largest wave of immigration to the U.S. since the early 1900s coincided with the lowest national unemployment rate and fastest economic growth. Immigrant entrepreneurs create jobs for U.S. and foreign workers, and foreign-born students allow many U.S. graduate programs to keep their doors open. While there has been no comprehensive study done of immigrant-owned businesses, we have countless examples: in Silicon Valley, companies begun by Chinese and Indian immigrants generated more than $19.5 billion in sales and nearly 73,000 jobs in 2000.[6] > > - Illegal immigrants, as well as legal immigrants with little job skills or language skills often take the work seen by most Americans as “beneath them.” Janitorial services, crop pickers and garbage collectors need workers, and they do not find them from high-school-educated, English-speaking citizens. As a demonstration of this fact, in Georgia, a 2011 crackdown on illegal immigrants caused many to be deported and more to flee the state. This caused a _shortage_ of labor on the state’s farms, indicating that illegal immigrants in that state do not compete very much with Americans for jobs. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/277 "2015-02-25T03:40:09Z")
However, the CBO has noted that in the short term increased immigration, at least the kind resulting from the Senate immigration bill, will increase unemployment and lower wages in the short to medium term. As I cited above. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/278 "2015-02-25T17:16:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > However, the CBO has noted that in the short term increased immigration, at least the kind resulting from the Senate immigration bill . . . The main message of [that cite](http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/18/news/economy/immigration-reform/index.html) is “Immigration bill could cut deficits by $175 billion.” ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/279 "2015-02-25T18:02:51Z")
Illegal immigrants work for lower wages (and are less likely to complain about dangerous work environments, etc.). Why else would employers hire them? How can that _not_ depress wages for citizens? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/280 "2015-02-25T18:13:24Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > The main message of [that cite](http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/18/news/economy/immigration-reform/index.html) is “Immigration bill could cut deficits by $175 billion.” Whether reducing the deficit is more important than jobs and wages is up to voters to decide. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842.md?page=15)