# Why the "emerging Democratic majority" isn't happening **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 4, 2015, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842 "2015-02-04T22:11:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 15
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/281 "2015-02-25T18:14:44Z")
> [@Peremensoe](#): > > Illegal immigrants work for lower wages (and are less likely to complain about dangerous work environments, etc.). Why else would employers hire them? How can that _not_ depress wages for citizens? Neither the Senate bill nor the President’s executive action does anything to solve this problem. There will still be an abundance of illegal immigrants and they will still be preferred by some employers over those with work permits. Of course, we could require E-verify for all employers, but that apparently isn’t going to ever happen. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2015, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/282 "2015-02-25T18:35:51Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Neither the Senate bill nor the President’s executive action does anything to solve this problem. There will still be an abundance of illegal immigrants and they will still be preferred by some employers over those with work permits. > > Of course, we could require E-verify for all employers, but that apparently isn’t going to ever happen. Or we just legalize them, and then they can’t work for less than minimum wage. We should raise the MW as well (gradually, by small amounts). ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2015, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/283 "2015-02-26T22:36:23Z")
If we just legalize anyone who comes here, then we essentially have open borders. It’s a solution, I just don’t think it would go over very well. But as long as we have some type of immigration restrictions, there will be illegals and some companies will want to use them to avoid labor laws. E-verify is the best protection we have against that. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2015, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/284 "2015-02-26T23:11:25Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If we just legalize anyone who comes here, then we essentially have open borders. It’s a solution, I just don’t think it would go over very well. Legalizing the people who are here is very different than allowing others to come in and legalizing them. What do you suggest we do with the 12 million here, who aren’t going anywhere? What should their status be? What do you advocate for them? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2015, 7:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/285 "2015-02-27T07:09:53Z")
Obviously, first step is to spay and neuter. Otherwise, if they keep making babies while we’re trying to deport them all, might get behind the curve. Shouldn’t be too big a problem, unless they’re, like, _Catholic_, or something. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2015, 8:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/286 "2015-02-27T08:24:17Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Legalizing the people who are here is very different than allowing others to come in and legalizing them. What do you suggest we do with the 12 million here, who aren’t going anywhere? What should their status be? What do you advocate for them? I think the provisions in the Senate immigration bill, if fully enforced, are quite reasonable. But they still leave millions without status(deservedly so), and every new person that crosses the border or overstays their visa after the deadline in the bill(which I believe is 2011) also remains without legal status. We can’t just grant legal status to every person who broke the law. The only difference between that and open borders is that open borders is actually fair. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2015, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/287 "2015-02-28T03:42:20Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > You are going to have to raise a lot of taxes to deport 11 million people. Hush now… adaher’s trying to tell us how he’s going to win the economically-conservative, socially neutral HENRY demographic by passing the hat to get rid of all the brown-skinned border jumping criminals. I for one am on the edge of my seat to see how this plays out. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2015, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/288 "2015-07-18T02:30:26Z")
Interesting stuff from [538.com](http://538.com). The electorate was just as diverse in 2014 as in 2008. > **[Voters Were Just As Diverse In 2014 As They Were In 2008](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/voters-were-just-as-diverse-in-2014-as-they-were-in-2008/)** > > As the United States becomes more diverse, Republicans are supposedly going to suffer. Nothing encapsulated this theory more than President Obama’s 2008 electio… So see, we can win more of the minority vote. Or, there is not actually a minority turnout problem. There is a DEMOCRATIC minority turnout problem. From the article: > [@](#): > > So what the heck happened? If the exit polls are to be believed (and they aren’t perfect), it was not that any one group became more Republican in 2014. Instead, they all did. Republicans won among whites by 22 percentage points instead of 12 percentage points. Republicans lost black voters by 79 percentage points versus 91 percentage points. They trailed among Hispanics by 26 percentage points rather than 36 percentage points. They won Asian voters by 1 percentage point instead of losing them by 27 points.2 > > You might be tempted to explain the shift by saying younger voters stayed home in 2014 compared with 2008. Indeed, 18- to 29-year-olds were 17 percent of voters in 2008 compared with just 10 percent in 2014, according to the census. But even if we adjusted the 2014 results to match the 2008 age turnout, Republicans still would have won nationally by 3.1 percentage points. That’s partially because 18- to 29-year-old voters who turned out in 2014 voted Republican by 23 percentage points more than 18- to 29-year-olds in 2008.3 > > This doesn’t mean that turnout didn’t matter in the midterms, as my old friend David Shor pointed out on Twitter. For example, white Democrats were less likely to vote than white Republicans. You can see this in the very white state of Iowa, where registered Democrats were 37 percent of the vote in 2008 and 33 percent in 2014. The percentage of registered Democrats in Iowa who voted in 2014 versus 2008 dropped by 22 percentage points compared with 12 percentage points for Republicans. Actually, you’ve got a white Democratic turnout problem too. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 8:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/289 "2015-10-20T08:36:37Z")
Reviving this thread since Matt Yglesias posted a great article on Vox about how in denial the Democrats are about their problems: > **[Democrats are in denial. Their party is actually in deep trouble.](https://www.vox.com/2015/10/19/9565119/democrats-in-deep-trouble)** > > Vox is a general interest news site for the 21st century. Its mission: to help everyone understand our complicated world, so that we can all help shape it. In text, video and audio, our reporters explain politics, policy, world affairs, technology,... > [@](#): > > The presidency is extremely important, of course. But there are also thousands of critically important offices all the way down the ballot. And the vast majority — 70 percent of state legislatures, more than 60 percent of governors, 55 percent of attorneys general and secretaries of state — are in Republicans hands. And, of course, Republicans control both chambers of Congress. Indeed, even the House infighting reflects, in some ways, the health of the GOP coalition. Republicans are confident they won’t lose power in the House and are hungry for a vigorous argument about how best to use the power they have. > > Not only have Republicans won most elections, but they have a perfectly reasonable plan for trying to recapture the White House. But Democrats have nothing at all in the works to redress their crippling weakness down the ballot. Democrats aren’t even talking about how to improve on their weak points, because by and large they don’t even admit that they exist. > > Instead, the party is focused on a competition between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton over whether they should go a little bit to Obama’s left or a lot to his left, options that are unlikely to help Democrats down-ballot in the face of an unfriendly House map and a more conservative midterm electorate. The GOP might be in chaos, but Democrats are in a torpor. The Democratic coalition, even if it is a majority, is also unmotivated and ill informed. It’s led by some really smart people who think the Republicans are idiots, or at least bitter clingers, and it’s true. But as Adlai Stevenson famously said when told he was the “thinking man’s candidate”, “That’s not good enough. I need a majority.” And the Democrats, while they may have the thinking man’s vote, are sitting on a pretty ignorant coalition that only really thinks the Presidency is important. And to a large extent, the smart people steering that coalition have also fallen into that simplistic way of thinking. Meanwhile, the troglodytes in the GOP are eating the science crowd’s lunch all the way down the rest of the ticket. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/290 "2015-10-20T13:08:15Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And the Democrats, while they may have the thinking man’s vote, are sitting on a pretty ignorant coalition that only really thinks the Presidency is important. Is that what you thought in the Bush years? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/291 "2015-10-20T13:34:10Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And the Democrats, while they may have the thinking man’s vote, are sitting on a pretty ignorant coalition that only really thinks the Presidency is important. And the Senate. I don’t think there is anyone who still thinks the GOP is going to retain a majority in the Senate in 2016. So the Republican base is convinced only the House is important, and that gerrymandered districts are safe and always stay that way. I don’t think we are going to retake the House, but we will pick up seats. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/292 "2015-10-20T13:58:31Z")
> [@](#): > > I don’t think there is anyone who still thinks the GOP is going to retain a majority in the Senate in 2016. I think it’s more or less 50-50 whether Dems can take the Senate next year. Four-five seats is a pretty significant swing, especially when Dems are having problems fielding a good candidate in Pennsylvania, a state we should be winning every election. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/293 "2015-10-20T14:34:03Z")
Which Republican Party are we talking about, here? The Bat Guano Coalition or the Not Insane! No, Really, Not Insane! Cadre? How does a party that cannot control itself run a country? Best evidence to date is: not very well. Only a massive groundswell of revulsion, dismay and disgust could help, and the Democratic Party probably can’t do that. Luckily for them, they won’t have to. ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/294 "2015-10-20T14:41:59Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Reviving this thread since Matt Yglesias posted a great article on Vox about how in denial the Democrats are about their problems: > > [Democrats are in denial. Their party is actually in deep trouble. | Vox](http://www.vox.com/2015/10/19/9565119/democrats-in-deep-trouble) > > The Democratic coalition, even if it is a majority, is also unmotivated and ill informed. It’s led by some really smart people who think the Republicans are idiots, or at least bitter clingers, and it’s true. But as Adlai Stevenson famously said when told he was the “thinking man’s candidate”, “That’s not good enough. I need a majority.” And the Democrats, while they may have the thinking man’s vote, are sitting on a pretty ignorant coalition that only really thinks the Presidency is important. And to a large extent, the smart people steering that coalition have also fallen into that simplistic way of thinking. Meanwhile, the troglodytes in the GOP are eating the science crowd’s lunch all the way down the rest of the ticket. Wow **adaher** , I actually agree with everything you said in this quote. Damn. Yup, it’s a real problem and the Dems need to start thinking about everything beyond the presidency. Yes, it’s the single most powerful office, but not a damn thing can get done legislatively without similar Dem control in the House and Senate. The Senate might return to Dem control in '16, while the House will return to Dem control _eventually_, but probably not until sometime in the mid-2020s when millenials make up a larger share of the vote. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/295 "2015-10-20T15:44:18Z")
His main complaint seems to be that Bernie and Hillary (lol) are too far left, thus making the problem worse. This is ridiculous, he might be right about Bernie but he has no chance in hell of winning. Democrats know they have a problem with midterm turnouts, i don’t see how they are supposed to address this during presidential campaign season though. And i sure would love to hear this perfectly reasonable plan for capturing the white house the republicans supposedly have. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/296 "2015-10-20T16:09:51Z")
Its totally a classy plan, and its gonna be HUGE! ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/297 "2015-10-20T20:45:22Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Reviving this thread since Matt Yglesias posted a great article on Vox about how in denial the Democrats are about their problems: > > [Democrats are in denial. Their party is actually in deep trouble. | Vox](http://www.vox.com/2015/10/19/9565119/democrats-in-deep-trouble) > > The Democratic coalition, even if it is a majority, is also unmotivated and ill informed. It’s led by some really smart people who think the Republicans are idiots, or at least bitter clingers, and it’s true. But as Adlai Stevenson famously said when told he was the “thinking man’s candidate”, “That’s not good enough. I need a majority.” And the Democrats, while they may have the thinking man’s vote, are sitting on a pretty ignorant coalition that only really thinks the Presidency is important. And to a large extent, the smart people steering that coalition have also fallen into that simplistic way of thinking. Meanwhile, the troglodytes in the GOP are eating the science crowd’s lunch all the way down the rest of the ticket. Well, whatever we have going on in California, maybe that’s the answer. We have practically nothing but Democrats in office from top to bottom ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/298 "2015-10-20T21:07:52Z")
Bad news is, next year you all drink sewer water. Good news is, there’s not enough to go around. So, thanks, Obama! ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2015, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/299 "2015-10-20T21:12:29Z")
The trouble is, I think, is that shrill obstructionist tantrums work. Because you can’t drive a car when a screaming child is stomping the brakes and jerking the wheel. Obama gets elected. GOP resolves to fuck the country to ash before allowing him a single victory. GOP largely keeps much improvement from happening, aside from the ACA. GOP lies about ACA (and really almost every single thing Obama has done), uses RW media to create hysteria about this being the last chance for nana to escape the death panels. 2010 election happens to great RW success with people driven to the polls behind those lies. They use their power to gerrymander every single thing they can. GOP gets a lock on the house until the next census. Average Dem gets even more disheartened. Until 2020 none of it matters because the house is run by fucking imbeciles (Freedom Caucus) who literally want America to fail if it takes Obama down with it. That’s not something that’s gonna drive folk to the polls. The GOP votes because of rage. The dems don’t vote because of despair. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 9:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/300 "2015-10-21T09:17:09Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > His main complaint seems to be that Bernie and Hillary (lol) are too far left, thus making the problem worse. This is ridiculous, he might be right about Bernie but he has no chance in hell of winning. Democrats know they have a problem with midterm turnouts, i don’t see how they are supposed to address this during presidential campaign season though. And i sure would love to hear this perfectly reasonable plan for capturing the white house the republicans supposedly have. I think his theory is that because Clinton and Sanders are so far left, that the Democrats are going to suffer down ballot even if they win the Presidency in 2016, then in 2018 comes the complete disaster since the Senate map is just ugly, ugly, ugly and the Republicans have proven they can hold onto the governorships they should not be holding. So you could very well see a situation after the 2018 elections where President Clinton sees 57-59 Republicans in the Senate, a few more in the House than now, and full or partial control of enough states to amend the Constitution. A lot is riding in 2016 on whether turnout is a midterm problem or whether it’s an “Obama’s not on the ticket” problem, because pre-Obama, Democrats haven’t been too good at turning out in generals either. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842.md?page=14) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842.md?page=16)