# Why the "emerging Democratic majority" isn't happening **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 4, 2015, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842 "2015-02-04T22:11:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2015, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/301 "2015-10-21T17:06:20Z")
With enough inspiration from you and yours, anything is possible. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/302 "2015-11-04T19:57:50Z")
Ezra Klein agrees with Yglesias and goes a step further: The Democratic Party is in crisis: > **[Don’t believe the Democratic Party is in crisis? Then read this tweet.](https://www.vox.com/2015/11/4/9669918/democrats-elections-crisis)** > > Vox is a general interest news site for the 21st century. Its mission: to help everyone understand our complicated world, so that we can all help shape it. In text, video and audio, our reporters explain politics, policy, world affairs, technology,... Greg Sargent endorses that view as well: [https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/11/04/morning-plum-a-brutal-reality-check-for-the-democratic-party/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/11/04/morning-plum-a-brutal-reality-check-for-the-democratic-party/) Both were triggered by this Rory Cooper tweet: > [@](#): > > Under President Obama, Democrats have lost 900+ state legislature seats, 12 governors, 69 House seats, 13 Senate seats. That’s some legacy. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/303 "2015-11-04T20:12:48Z")
> [@](#): > > Under President Obama, Democrats have lost 900+ state legislature seats, 12 governors, 69 House seats, 13 Senate seats. That’s some legacy. Any hard evidence that doesn’t make us write this off as “correlation, not causation”? ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2015, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/304 "2015-11-04T20:26:24Z")
I’ve got an easy explanation. Rage drives people to the polls. And every stupid asshole driven into seething hatred of Obama and liberals in general by the liars in RW media show up to vote every chance they get. Many of those voting “R” think that Obama is pushing climate change legislation to literally destroy our economy. That he all but murdered the men at Benghazi, that he had the IRS target conservative groups, that the ACA is a “government takeover” of medicine, that Jade Helm was gonna take Texas, that Obama’s commin’ fer der gunnnnzzzzz!!1, that there are FEMA camps waiting to inter conservatives, and a million other stupid things that are shoved down their gullible throats by the RW media. Of course people who believe that are pissed. Of course they’re showing up to vote. The RW media has created a situation where a lot of Americans think we’re on the brink of civil war and totalitarian take-over. They think that the vote is the last step before grabbing their guns and shouting, “WOLVERINES!” ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 12:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/305 "2015-11-05T00:25:30Z")
Let us take that definition of ‘crisis’ and look at the implosion of the Republican primary primaries. On the flip side… hell, I just voted for a Republican for mayor, but I’ll vote Democrat for house and senate. At the national level and the local level, very different things are at stake. Locally, I want an unimaginative bean counter. We don’t need a lot of innovation or social progress in garbage collection, and Republicans are great for that. But nationally, I want social progress, and republicans are always going to be the opposite of that. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/306 "2015-11-05T04:37:57Z")
If that was what most people were thinking, Democrats would control Congress. The President is more “bean counter” than social progress warrior. That’s Congress’ job. This really seems more to me like the Democratic Party is catering to a base that doesn’t come out except for Presidential elections. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 6:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/307 "2015-11-05T06:53:06Z")
I agree with Yglesias; the Democrats are in serious trouble and don’t seem to realize it. Part of it is overestimating Hillary’s chances in the general election; there appears to this delusional belief that she an overwhelming favorite whereas the evidence suggests that it’s even at best. Part of it is overestimating the importance of the Presidency in general ; yes it’s the single most important post but cumulatively , state legislatures, governorships, and Congress are more important and the Republicans have a solid grip on them. The emergence of Rubio as the front-runner is bad news for Democrats; he is going to be a formidable candidate in the general election and the possible combination of President Rubio and Speaker Ryan will be the most formidable that Republicans have had in generations. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 7:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/308 "2015-11-05T07:25:51Z")
A somber reflection or your fondest dreams? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 8:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/309 "2015-11-05T08:11:02Z")
Very much agreed that the Democratic Party needs to embrace an issue that can win back some of rural America … while not diminishing their strength in urban (and increasingly suburban as well) America in the process. The advantage they have in Presidential elections is substantial but no lock but more so the GOP will continue to dominate Congress and state governments until they do. I believe that income/wealth inequality and the hollowing out of the middle class are the issues to embrace most of all. Rural regions are having i[ncreasing poverty rates](http://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2012-december/concentration-of-poverty.aspx#.VjsEuK6rT5Y) more than metro areas. And it plays out differently for those who have been that poor for generations and those who are experiencng a loss of status with decreasing hope of climbing back out. > [@](#): > > A comparison of nonmetro counties and metro counties finds that both areas experienced significant growth in the number of high-poverty counties between 2000 and 2006-10, but the increase was greater for nonmetro counties. … There were 193 nonmetro counties newly defined as high poverty in 2006-10, compared with 55 metro counties. Most of the new nonmetro high-poverty counties are adjacent to previously existing high-poverty clusters. The majority are in the Southern Interior Uplands, the Cotton Belt, the Southern Piedmont, and the Southern Great Plains. … not only has the incidence of concentrated nonmetro poverty increased over the last decade but that it has also become more widespread. … > > … Although concentrated poverty increased among rural minority populations over the study period, it also increased among rural Whites. The share of the nonmetro African American poverty population in high-poverty counties rose by 13.6 percentage points between 2000 and 2006-10. Changes in the nonmetro White and Hispanic poverty populations over the same period were similar, with increases of 9.4 percentage points and 9.8 percentage points, respectively. Prior periods of growth in concentrated poverty (1970s-1990s) affected the White population to a much lesser extent than minority populations. … Now mind you there has been some recent reversal in some regions due to the energy boom. But only some few areas and no one expects that to be a lasting solution. [Rural suicide rates are increasing.](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/03/health/small-towns-face-rising-suicide-rates.html) > [@](#): > > Rates over all rose 7 percent in metropolitan counties from 2004 to 2013, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In rural counties, the increase was 20 percent. Obama’s administration has taken [steps to address rural issues](https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2015/04/13/opportunity-all-white-house-rural-council-launches-rural-impact-effort-help-rural-ch) but they have certainly not publicized it well. For now the GOP has harnessed the discontent that those circumstances engender and directed it against the government (never mind that many of those angry benefit from a variety of government programs). The Democratic Party has to offer them a more positive vision and path. One that is based on fairness, not on handouts, and that builds lasting pathways to better economic futures. They have to reintroduce and better fight for Rural Veterans Health Improvement Acts, such as [this one](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/113/s2009) introduced by Udall (D NM) and [this one](https://www.congress.gov/bill/113th-congress/senate-bill/1411) by Franken (D MN). There are issues that the Democratic Party can rally behind, define as theirs, and work to force through Congress as best they can, that will resonate in rural districts. It has to be made a priority. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2015, 9:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/310 "2015-11-05T09:41:46Z")
Has anyone linked to [this Vox article](http://www.vox.com/polyarchy/2015/11/4/9665842/republican-inequality-future-loop) yet? It offers a detailed and sobering analysis of why “Democrats really are in big trouble for the foreseeable future.” ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2016, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/311 "2016-01-16T04:20:13Z")
John Judis has another post about how demographics aren’t actually likely to help Democrats. The most interesting stat was this one: > [@](#): > > And there’s a surprising subset of this trend: While African-American support for Democrats doesn’t vary by income or occupation, there is now, according to the ANES surveys, a gap opening up between Hispanics with a high school diploma or less, who supported Obama by more than 70 percent, and those with some college or an associate degree, who supported him by just 55 percent. Based purely on current demographic trends, one could reason that in a generation, as more Hispanics get college degrees, they could become almost as tough a sell for the Democrats as white college graduates are now. > **[Democrats are in more trouble than they think. And changing demographics...](https://www.vox.com/2016/1/14/10761208/democrats-doomed)** > > Vox is a general interest news site for the 21st century. Its mission: to help everyone understand our complicated world, so that we can all help shape it. In text, video and audio, our reporters explain politics, policy, world affairs, technology,... ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2016, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/312 "2016-01-16T04:24:46Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > John Judis has another post about how demographics aren’t actually likely to help Democrats. The most interesting stat was this one: > > [Democrats are in more trouble than they think. And changing demographics won’t save them. | Vox](http://www.vox.com/2016/1/14/10761208/democrats-doomed) This is not completely surprising-the Hispanics eventually will go the way of the Irish and Italians even if the GOP’s current nativist tendencies may retard the process. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2016, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/313 "2016-01-16T04:28:32Z")
Especially since they many tend to identify as white. Liberals are being very helpful in this process by labelling George Zimmerman, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz as “white”. If they are white, the majority of Latinos are white and we’ll gladly take their votes. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2016, 5:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/314 "2016-01-16T05:00:15Z")
They are white. What does that have to do with the question of whether they’re Hispanic? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2016, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/315 "2016-01-16T05:08:28Z")
Historically, marginalized groups have voted Democrat. When groups identify closer with the majority, which eventually happened with Irish and Italians, their voting behavior tends to become indistinguishable from the majority. If society regards light-skinned Latinos as white, and they regard themselves as white, then the fact that they also regard themselves as Latino will make about as much difference to their voting behavior as it does for Italian and Irish voters. And I’d note that Cruz and Rubio are not all that light-skinned. If they are the current definition of white, then white voters will remain the vast majority heading into the next century. Which means Democrats better figure out how to win whites or else. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2016, 8:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/316 "2016-01-16T08:40:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If that was what most people were thinking, Democrats would control Congress. The President is more “bean counter” than social progress warrior. That’s Congress’ job. That’s completely untrue. Presidents have bean counters to work for them. But a President has to be about the “vision thing”–in a way that Congress, structurally, isn’t designed to be. A President can set an agenda, submit a budget, and create a coherent plan for the federal government. Congress has too many contradictory voices to do that very often. The President is not a mere clerk. Now, that said, coming from a part of the country where the Republicans can be weird ideologues, I don’t think the GOP is good at “unimaginative bean-counting,” either. For that, I’d put in a Democrat. But it may be different in other states, or in cities with strong mayor systems, or maybe **HMS Irruncible** is posting from somewhen in the last century. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842.md?page=15)