# Why the "emerging Democratic majority" isn't happening **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 4, 2015, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842 "2015-02-04T22:11:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2015, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/21 "2015-02-04T23:47:26Z")
It would seem they already are. 2014 showed how they can overcome their negatives. And the Democrats are without a coherent economic agenda anymore due to the nature of their coalition. They actually have to speak as nonspecifically as possible in order to avoid alienating any part of their delicate majority. They pound away on social issues because it’s now the main thing that unites them. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 4, 2015, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/22 "2015-02-04T23:52:31Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It would seem they already are. 2014 showed how they can overcome their negatives. And the Democrats are without a coherent economic agenda anymore due to the nature of their coalition. They actually have to speak as nonspecifically as possible in order to avoid alienating any part of their delicate majority. They pound away on social issues because it’s now the main thing that unites them. Or they could go with the growing economy, strong executive actions on immigration and Cuba, and continually positive news about the ACA that has helped Obama’s approval surge lately, Mr. Makes-Assertions-About-Other-Posters-Without-Backing-Them-Up. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/23 "2015-02-05T00:05:33Z")
Possible. A big effect on voting is always the performance of the parties in office. if Obama’s last two years are good, then the Democrats will do better. If things really go to pot, then it’ll be as epically awful as 2008 was for Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/24 "2015-02-05T02:04:37Z")
Reading **adaher** ’s predictions on the impending huge swing of all demographics to Republicans really reminds me of the Simpsons episode where Disco Stu says that disco record sales tripled between 1975 and 1978. “And if this trend continues… aaaaaaaaay!” ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/25 "2015-02-05T02:08:15Z")
> [@Spectre\_of\_Pithecanthropus](#): > > That, and the fact that however bad things got in the Great Recession, a majority of people probably came out relatively unscathed. They didn’t lose their jobs, they didn’t lose their health insurance, and they didn’t lose their homes even if they did take an equity hit. As a result, enough of them may be secure enough in the feeling that everything’s just fine the way it is now, except that they want to get rid of Obamacare. This may change if wages continue to stagnate and more of the “office economy” workers realize their stake is shrinking. Other than politicians of a certain party, are there really regular people out there that “want to get rid of Obamacare?” Is there a feeling that it is hurting them somehow that other people are getting health insurance? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/26 "2015-02-05T02:25:40Z")
We all pay for that, so um, yeah. Plus everyone’s premiums went up because our insurance got better. We weren’t asked if we wanted better insurance. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/27 "2015-02-05T02:26:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Their voting behavior is motivated by the same interests as white voting behavior. they vote Democrat because they tend to be poorer. And browner than Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/28 "2015-02-05T02:27:55Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Reading **adaher** ’s predictions on the impending huge swing of all demographics to Republicans really reminds me of the Simpsons episode where Disco Stu says that disco record sales tripled between 1975 and 1978. “And if this trend continues… aaaaaaaaay!” That’s kinda the point though. Just because certain demographics that prefer Democrats are supposed to be growing doesn’t guarantee a damn thing to Democrats. And some of the groups Democrats have been counting on have swung away from them: young voters, affluent Latinos, white working class voters, the middle class, and in 2014, women, despite Democrats trying to make the 2014 election all about abortion. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/29 "2015-02-05T03:02:44Z")
Yes, but rich white old men, gun owners, Tea Party enthusiasts, and cranky retirees are swinging toward Democrats. Just as long as we’re in fantasyland, of course. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/30 "2015-02-05T04:37:24Z")
> [@The\_Joker\_and\_the\_Thief](#): > > I have never met anyone who liked paying more taxes. It’s like a defining ethos of humanity. Perhaps there are people out there, perhaps even on this board, but in my experience they must be improbably rare. Warren Buffett has strongly implied he wouldn’t mind too terribly much. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/31 "2015-02-05T05:08:58Z")
> [@The\_Joker\_and\_the\_Thief](#): > > I have never met anyone who liked paying more taxes. It’s like a defining ethos of humanity. Perhaps there are people out there, perhaps even on this board, but in my experience they must be improbably rare. Raise my taxes. As long as you raise the taxes of everybody like me, and put the revenue to good use, I’m all for raising my taxes. We are not as rare as you think. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 7:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/32 "2015-02-05T07:58:45Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Raise my taxes. As long as you raise the taxes of everybody like me, and put the revenue to good use, I’m all for raising my taxes. We are not as rare as you think. Ditto. ---
**Author:** ![F.U.Shakespeare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/aca169/32.png) [@F.U.Shakespeare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/F.U.Shakespeare)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 10:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/33 "2015-02-05T10:46:55Z")
Yesterday, I heard Jeb Bush on the radio, claiming that the “loss of opportunity” was the biggest problem facing America. He elaborated on how hard it was for people to rise up from the bottom to even the middle class. I thought I was having a senior moment, forgetting what party Jeb Bush belonged to. Republicans weren’t talking like that a few years ago. A white Wal-Mart employee in Tennessee had to grit his teeth to vote for the guy who railed against the “47%”. The GOP has honed its strategy, and enacted it effectively, but I’m not sure it indicates any shift in the electorate. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 11:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/34 "2015-02-05T11:37:22Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Not if Hispanic voter turnout goes way up (or many other possibilities). And it will eventually, though maybe not in the next election. > > I’m still waiting for a cite for your claim about me in post #5. > [@adaher](#): > > **And as Latinos become wealthier, which they will, especially if overall immigration from the south drops, which it is, then Latinos become more Republican.** I agree with this second post, the Hispanic vote will not remain the block vote it’s sometimes described as. Second, third and fourth generation Hispanics do not necessarily have the same political outlook as first generation Hispanics. These later generation Hispanics may still lean Democrat, but the split is generally far less than in recent Hispanic immigrants. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 12:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/35 "2015-02-05T12:20:39Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > I agree with this second post, the Hispanic vote will not remain the block vote it’s sometimes described as. Second, third and fourth generation Hispanics do not necessarily have the same political outlook as first generation Hispanics. These later generation Hispanics may still lean Democrat, but the split is generally far less than in recent Hispanic immigrants. If the Republicans stop being the anti-immigrant party, then perhaps. But I have high hopes that folks like Steve King will increase their rhetoric, rather than tone it down. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/36 "2015-02-05T15:33:00Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And it’s not at all hard for Republicans to be acceptable to these affluent socially liberal voters: > [@](#): > > And so, when Republican politicians have soft-pedaled their views on abortion or guns or immigration . . . That don’t sound **easy.** ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/37 "2015-02-05T15:50:55Z")
> [@F.U.Shakespeare](#): > > Yesterday, I heard Jeb Bush on the radio, claiming that the “loss of opportunity” was the biggest problem facing America. He elaborated on how hard it was for people to rise up from the bottom to even the middle class. > > I thought I was having a senior moment, forgetting what party Jeb Bush belonged to. Sounds more like **he** was. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/38 "2015-02-05T17:21:14Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Apparently rich minorities don’t like paying taxes either. Iiandyii, you can ignore the second paragraph since you’re sure that “lacking confidence in government” cannot possibly be happening. Adaher, I’m going to back up iiandyii on this one. You’ve made a specific, quotable assertion about his beliefs and character and persistently refused to back it up. While the battlecry of ‘cite!’ is essentially custom for the SDMB and not law, it is, nevertheless customary to at least try to answer them with some form of response. Not doing so lowers the discussion from anything at least handwaving toward legitimate discussion toward schoolyard arguing. I’d prefer to avoid that. I’m not going to issue a warning here. But future such occurances may earn such. So let’s all play nice. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/39 "2015-02-05T17:36:32Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Adaher, I’m going to back up iiandyii on this one. You’ve made a specific, quotable assertion about his beliefs and character and persistently refused to back it up. > > While the battlecry of ‘cite!’ is essentially custom for the SDMB and not law, it is, nevertheless customary to at least try to answer them with some form of response. Not doing so lowers the discussion from anything at least handwaving toward legitimate discussion toward schoolyard arguing. I’d prefer to avoid that. > > I’m not going to issue a warning here. But future such occurances may earn such. So let’s all play nice. Even the moderators get my screen name wrong. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2015, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842/40 "2015-02-05T17:37:35Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > We all pay for that, so um, yeah. Plus everyone’s premiums went up because our insurance got better. We weren’t asked if we wanted better insurance. Everybody’s premiums were going up _regardless_ of whether our insurance got better. And if by “got better” you mean "was made available to those with pre-existing conditions were denied coverage _even if they could afford the premiums"_, then yeah, we were asked, and we said, “Yes.” Pay attention. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-emerging-democratic-majority-isnt-happening/711842.md?page=3)