# Why The Great Recovery? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 2, 2011, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153 "2011-03-02T03:03:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2011, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153/1 "2011-03-02T03:03:55Z")
Only twenty years ago America was at its nadir in many social trends. Drug use was heavy among teenagers, the inner cities were decaying, crime rates were hitting the roof, and the number of abortions were appalingly high. Yet since then, almost miraculously, may of the trends have reversed itself-drug use has declined, many inner cities have started growing again, no race riot has happened since LA in 1992, and crime rates and abortion have both decline massively? So what caused this great recovery, perhaps in many ways greater than our victory over the USSR in the Cold War? ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2011, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153/2 "2011-03-02T03:09:25Z")
Can you provide some cites for abortion, crime and drug use twenty years ago as opposed to today? ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2011, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153/3 "2011-03-02T03:26:47Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Can you provide some cites for abortion, crime and drug use twenty years ago as opposed to today? From _World Almanac and Book of Facts 2006_: > [@](#): > > Source: FBI, _Uniform Crime Reports_, 2003 > > 1991-Crime Index (total): 14,872,883 > Violent Crime: 1,911,767 > Murder and Non-Negligent Manslaughter: 24,703 > Forcible Rape: 106,593 > > 2002-Crime Index (total): 11,877,218 > Violent Crime: 1,426,325 > Murder and Non-Negligent Manslaughter: 16,204 > Forcible Rape: 95,136 > > Source: Alan Guttmacher Institute, New York, NY > > 1992 (Total US Number of Abortions)-1,528,930 > 2000-1,312,990 > > Drug Use Among US High School Seniors > > 1980: Marijuana-60.3%, Inhalants-17.3%, Hallucinogents-9.9%, Cocaine-15.7%, Amphetamines-26.4%, Alcohol-93.2%, Cigarettes-71.0% > 2004: Marijuana-45.7%, Inhalants-11.4%, Halluciogens-9,9%, Cocaine-8.1%, Amphetamines-15.0%, Alcohol-76.8%, Cigarettes-52.8% It should be noted the number of crimes and abortions dropping is more dramatic then implied as population has increased. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2011, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153/4 "2011-03-02T03:30:02Z")
The crime rate, at least, did fall since the early 90s. If you’ll pardon a Wikipedia article: > **[Crime in the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States)** > > Crime has been recorded in the United States since its founding and has fluctuated significantly over time. Crime rates have varied over time, with a sharp rise after 1900 and reaching a broad bulging peak between the 1970s and early 1990s. After 1992, crime rates have generally trended downwards each year, with the exceptions of a slight increase in property crimes in 2001 and increases in violent crimes in 2005-2006 and 2014-2016. While official federal crime data beginning in 2021 has a wid St... The abortion rate seems to have peaked in 1981 and been in decline since: [http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/11/us-abortion-rate-idUSTRE70A64T20110111](http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/11/us-abortion-rate-idUSTRE70A64T20110111) I’m finding incomplete information about drug use, but according to one study, among high schoolers, drug use actually hit a low in 1993 and has been increasing since. > **[Office of National Drug Control Policy | The White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/ondcp/)** > > The Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) is a component of the Executive Office of the President. ONDCP leads and coordinates the nation’s drug policy so that it improves the health and lives of the American people. ONDCP is responsible for... ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2011, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153/5 "2011-03-02T03:32:55Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Only twenty years ago America was at its nadir in many social trends. Drug use was heavy among teenagers, the inner cities were decaying, crime rates were hitting the roof, and the number of abortions were appalingly high. Yet since then, almost miraculously, may of the trends have reversed itself-drug use has declined, many inner cities have started growing again, no race riot has happened since LA in 1992, and crime rates and abortion have both decline massively? So what caused this great recovery, perhaps in many ways greater than our victory over the USSR in the Cold War? Are you looking for a single answer for the changes you’ve listed? if not, you might want to tackle these subjects one at a time. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2011, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153/6 "2011-03-02T03:33:48Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Can you provide some cites for abortion, crime and drug use twenty years ago as opposed to today? I don’t know about abortion or drugs, but the fact that the crime rate has fallen drastically since the 90s often comes up, with lots of speculation as to why. You know; “If violent video games cause violence why have people gotten less violent as video games have gotten more common and more violent?” ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2011, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153/7 "2011-03-02T03:39:08Z")
The argument in freakonomics was that access to abortion made the kids most likely to end up as delinquents non-existent. Were these trends global or just in the US? ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2011, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153/8 "2011-03-02T03:39:29Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Are you looking for a single answer for the changes you’ve listed? if not, you might want to tackle these subjects one at a time. No, of course not. I’m looking for the biggest factors in general. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2011, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153/9 "2011-03-02T03:40:30Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > I don’t know about abortion or drugs, but the fact that the crime rate has fallen drastically since the 90s often comes up, with lots of speculation as to why. You know; “If violent video games cause violence why have people gotten less violent as video games have gotten more common and more violent?” Perhaps because we have tougher sentencing laws now? > [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > The argument in freakonomics was that access to abortion made the kids most likely to end up as delinquents non-existent. > > Were these trends global or just in the US? But abortion has gone down yet crime is still going down. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2011, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153/10 "2011-03-02T03:56:14Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Perhaps because we have tougher sentencing laws now? If anything it would hurt; it forces the early release of dangerous criminals to make room in overstuffed prisons, mandatory sentencing laws (passed due to fear of the largely imaginary “liberal judges”) force judges to limit sentences for more dangerous criminals, they produce a larger and larger number of people who have been in prison, they produce a larger number of people who count as criminals, etc. “Getting tough” is a matter of self indulgent sadism on the part of the public and politicians, there’s no reason to think it lowers crime. And “getting tough” pretty much by definition is going to raise the crime rate because you are defining more people as criminals. ---
**Author:** ![villa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/bc79bd/32.png) [@villa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/villa)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2011, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153/11 "2011-03-02T03:58:29Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > No, of course not. I’m looking for the biggest factors in general. The Clinton administration, clearly. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2011, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153/12 "2011-03-02T04:10:17Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > If anything it would hurt; it forces the early release of dangerous criminals to make room in overstuffed prisons, mandatory sentencing laws (passed due to fear of the largely imaginary “liberal judges”) force judges to limit sentences for more dangerous criminals, they produce a larger and larger number of people who have been in prison, they produce a larger number of people who count as criminals, etc. > > “Getting tough” is a matter of self indulgent sadism on the part of the public and politicians, there’s no reason to think it lowers crime. And “getting tough” pretty much by definition is going to raise the crime rate because you are defining more people as criminals. No, it simply focuses on punishing those who have committed something that is already a crime. And if tougher sentencing increases crime rates why have we seen the exact opposite? Why is crime nonexistent in places like Singapore? > [@villa](#): > > The Clinton administration, clearly. How? And I don’t you leftists would like a neoliberal like Clinton anyways. ---
**Author:** ![villa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/bc79bd/32.png) [@villa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/villa)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2011, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153/13 "2011-03-02T04:18:08Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > How? And I don’t you leftists would like a neoliberal like Clinton anyways. No, but some of us leftists have a sense of humor… Overall though, in times of prosperity, crime falls. I would imagine in boom times, _ceteris paribus_, abortion will fall, just as pregnancy rates fall as countries become more prosperous. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2011, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153/14 "2011-03-02T04:22:09Z")
> [@villa](#): > > No, but some of us leftists have a sense of humor… > > Overall though, in times of prosperity, crime falls. I would imagine in boom times, _ceteris paribus_, abortion will fall, just as pregnancy rates fall as countries become more prosperous. Not necessarily-crime rates were high during the Roaring '20s due to the Prohibition and went down even during the Great Depression. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2011, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153/15 "2011-03-02T04:26:12Z")
To the degree that any of the things mentioned in the OP actually happened - the post is full of loaded wording and appears to have several facts wrong - my guess is that most of the credit goes to the economic growth seen throughout most of the '90s. > [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Not necessarily-crime rates were high during the Roaring '20s due to the Prohibition Of course they were. Think about this for a moment and I bet you will realize why the outlawing of alcohol was associated with an increase in crime. ---
**Author:** ![villa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/bc79bd/32.png) [@villa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/villa)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2011, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153/16 "2011-03-02T04:26:56Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Not necessarily-crime rates were high during the Roaring '20s due to the Prohibition and went down even during the Great Depression. Come on - you yourself have provided the reason there. In general, crime falls with prosperity. That doesn’t mean you cannot have times of increasing prosperity and increasing crime. You can always pull individual situations out to counter general rules. But the downward path of murder in NYC is not generally considered to be interrupted by the 9/11 attacks, for example. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2011, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153/17 "2011-03-02T04:27:12Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > To the degree that any of the things mentioned in the OP actually happened - the post is full of loaded wording and appears to have several facts wrong - my guess is that most of the credit goes to the economic growth seen throughout most of the '90s. > Of course they were. Think about this for a moment and I bet you will realize why the outlawing of alcohol was associated with an increase in crime. I already knew that, thank you very much. ---
**Author:** ![F.U.Shakespeare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/aca169/32.png) [@F.U.Shakespeare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/F.U.Shakespeare)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2011, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153/18 "2011-03-02T04:31:29Z")
> [@villa](#): > > The Clinton administration, clearly. Seconded. Imagine all the “super predators” (not the left’s term – google it) that would be coming of age had Roe v. Wade been overturned as Clinton’s adversaries wanted. Definitely a major factor. So why did abortions decrease? Again, the end of welfare as we know it. No more girls having babies as a career. (I’m assuming that was as widespread as some of you people said?) Ditto continued access to birth control. I’m being _slightly_ tongue in cheek here, in tacet comment to the alacrity of the OP. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2011, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153/19 "2011-03-02T04:49:38Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > [QUOTE=Wesley Clark] > The argument in freakonomics was that access to abortion made the kids most likely to end up as delinquents non-existent. But abortion has gone down yet crime is still going down. [/QUOTE] Access to abortion may also have made the kids most likely to end up getting abortions non-existent. (No, I’m not being totally facetious. 🆒 ) ---
**Author:** ![Agnostic\_Pagan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c4cdca/32.png) [@Agnostic\_Pagan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Agnostic_Pagan)\ **Post date:** [March 2, 2011, 5:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153/20 "2011-03-02T05:31:51Z")
> [@villa](#): > > The Clinton administration, clearly. Yep - specifically Clinton passed the [crime bill](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Violent_Crime_Control_and_Law_Enforcement_Act) in 1994, which put 100,000 extra officers on the streets and gave prosecutors more tools to use to get convictions. And then Al Gore invented the internet. 😉 Or rather Tim Berners-Lee created the World Wide Web in the early 90’s and Mosaic was released in 1993. The Clinton administration was smart enough to see its potential and gave it tremendous support. And the Internet is used for more than porn and the Straight Dope. It’s primary purpose was to share research between academics and defense department scientists. A secondary purpose was to share information between government levels and the public. And while the general public may not delve that deeply into that side of the internet, a great many policy wonks do. Prior to the Internet, most sharing of best practices and new research were limited to a few journals and conferences - and while it was common for most states and larger cities and counties to send attendees, most cities did not, and even then dissemination was slow. The internet sped up information sharing and access. NGOs also became a bigger player, often able to move into gaps that governments left, and able to try pilot projects in lieu of gov. programs. So governments have been able to use resources better and achieve tangible results in reducing crime, alleviating poverty, and fighting drug use. Though I am not sure how much that last one has decreased. While the crack epidemic seems under control, the meth plague doesn’t seem to be diminishing. And inner cities still have a long way to go before they return to their hey day of pre-WWII. And the trend of information sharing is still building. By the 2012 election, there will be apps showing a candidates entire record, all their speeches, and the list of their campaign donors. There will be apps showing all the demographic data for any given zip code - crime rate, (heck, maybe even notifications of crimes in progress), school data, building and business permits, tax dollars collected and spent. The fun one I am waiting for is an employer data app - it would give you the equivalent information that applicants have to provide. They will run credit and background checks on us, and we will run the same on them. In other words, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. Side note: It is scary to think of what our opportunity cost is of the prior administration’s policies. If the money not wasted in Iraq or lost due to the non-regulation of the financial markets had been available to local governments, our crime rates would probably be insanely low, and graduation rates insanely high. The public policy fight would be on how fast we could build universities to absorb the increase in high school graduates, and if we should have vouchers for college or not, instead of elementary schools. We have lost an entire decade of meaningful development in this country, and possibly another cleaning up the mess. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-great-recovery/573153.md?page=2)