# Why the hysteria over SARS **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [April 23, 2003, 4:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-hysteria-over-sars/170533 "2003-04-23T04:45:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![MaryEFoo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@MaryEFoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaryEFoo)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2003, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-hysteria-over-sars/170533/41 "2003-04-24T17:09:11Z")
And once I read that at a time there was some incidence of polio in Australia, at a time when the Queen was coming to visit. A public health campaign was initiated in advance, urging people to wash their hands every time they went to the bathroom. As a result, there was a significant drop-off in the number of new polio cases, and also of colds, etc. And the Queen (and most members of the crowds associated with the visit) did not get polio. Cite is personal memory of print source. Someone may be able to verify. ---
**Author:** ![Ferret\_Herder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e47774/32.png) [@Ferret\_Herder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ferret_Herder)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2003, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-hysteria-over-sars/170533/42 "2003-04-24T18:04:53Z")
**MaryEFoo** , check the [World Health Organization](http://www.who.int/) site for information on the diseases you cited - Ebola is mostly spread by contact with blood, semen, and the internal organs of infected people. Leprosy is spread by droplets, and seems to be not a very hardy bacterium as the site says it requires numerous contacts with the patient. At this point, it’s hard to tell how infectious it is compared with other diseases - the ones you list are mostly very well known to us by now, and it’s hard to compare something we don’t fully understand yet to them. Are there perhaps people who get the SARS virus and shake it off rapidly, developing antibodies and simply thinking they have the sniffles? Wearing of masks may help, but if sewage is also contaminated and manages to spread via hands, etc., then mask-wearing is ineffective in that case. Once again, IANAD/epidemiologist. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2003, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-hysteria-over-sars/170533/43 "2003-04-24T19:42:18Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Urban Ranger \* > \*\*WHO has revised \ to 5%, which isn’t all that high in my view. \*\* The influenza epidemic that killed millions of people worldwide in 1918 had a fatality rate of about 4%. ---
**Author:** ![KGS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/90ced4/32.png) [@KGS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KGS)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2003, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-hysteria-over-sars/170533/44 "2003-04-24T20:06:37Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by China Guy \* > **China is worrisome in that SARS is likely to wipe out 5% of the countryside. The cities may be largely untouched, but the countryside is in for tens of millions dying. Ditto for India if it takes root there.** And this is bad…why? Seriously, we’re talking about two of the world’s most overpopulated countries here. Over one billion people _each_ in one country the size of the U.S., and another less than half that size. Hell, 5% would barely make a dent. Isn’t disease nature’s way of “thinning the herd”, so to speak? ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2003, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-hysteria-over-sars/170533/45 "2003-04-24T21:38:52Z")
KGS, beware unintended consequences. ---
**Author:** ![Crowbar\_of\_Irony\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f08c70/32.png) [@Crowbar\_of\_Irony\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crowbar_of_Irony_3)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2003, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-hysteria-over-sars/170533/46 "2003-04-25T01:55:44Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by KGS \* > \*\*And this is bad…why? > > Seriously, we’re talking about two of the world’s most overpopulated countries here. Over one billion people _each_ in one country the size of the U.S., and another less than half that size. Hell, 5% would barely make a dent. Isn’t disease nature’s way of “thinning the herd”, so to speak? \*\* Fuel for the BBQ pit coming this way, I reckon… Since this is on General Questions, I try to deal with facts. China has cancelled or postponed its 1st May (Labour’s Day?) holiday. In this one week holiday, people working at urban cities would take the opportunity to travel back to the countryside. The government is afraid that SARS may spread from the cities centre to the countryside, then it will be out of control. Just consider - the government has already failed to implement its “Just One Child is Enough” policy in the rural countryside. If an infectious disease, no matter how less infectious than anything else, just as long it is infectious, get out there the consquences will be unthinkable. The Chinese government knows this and they wish to put a halt to it, so the Chinese government are now taking SARS seriously (after the initial hush-up. Perhaps they could they could keep it under control themselves). \What is 5% of a billion, at any rate?\ Granted, from [http://www.who.int/csr/sarsarchive/2003\_04\_24/en/](http://www.who.int/csr/sarsarchive/2003_04_24/en/) there are only 2000+ cases of SARS in China…but once in the rural areas we may see SARS meeting the expectations of the doomsayer. So let wait till the middle of May and see what SARS could do. ---
**Author:** ![FranticMad](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/c68b51/32.png) [@FranticMad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FranticMad)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2003, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-hysteria-over-sars/170533/47 "2003-04-25T02:01:09Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by KGS \* > \*\*Over one billion people _each_ in one country the size of the U.S., and another less than half that size. Hell, 5% would barely make a dent. Isn’t disease nature’s way of “thinning the herd”, so to speak? \*\* These are human beings. If you really believe in this philosphy, then you will volunteer to go to China, seek out the infection, and become one of the 5% to die from SARS. Heck, save the airfare and jump off a cliff. Thin the herd! Or perhaps you meant that it’s fine if _other_ people die. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2003, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-hysteria-over-sars/170533/48 "2003-04-25T02:23:41Z")
Also, there are generally booms after plagues, war, famine, etc. I don’t know what the boom would look like after a 5% worldwide impact. ---
**Author:** ![JustJoan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/50afbb/32.png) [@JustJoan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JustJoan)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2003, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-hysteria-over-sars/170533/49 "2003-04-25T02:28:07Z")
I had the same question as the OP - What’s different from the scare every winter over the latest flu? Not much. ---
**Author:** ![OxyMoron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/e9a140/32.png) [@OxyMoron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OxyMoron)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2003, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-hysteria-over-sars/170533/50 "2003-04-25T02:32:06Z")
[An Important FYI re. KarlGauss](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=179624) ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2003, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-hysteria-over-sars/170533/51 "2003-04-25T02:58:39Z")
> [@](#): > > What’s different from the scare every winter over the latest flu? Not much. There’s a huge difference. Flu has been around for ages, and we know both how bad it can get, and how to fight it with immunization. The coronavirus behind SARS has just undergone a major change in virulence, and we have no history on it to tell us how likely it is to change _again_ as it starts to affect a significant sized population. New diseases have a penchant for mutating. The range of likely variability is somewhat understood with the flu; not so with SARS. While flu is predictable enough that new vaccines are routinely produced a year ahead of time, so far, no one has developed an anti-SARS stick, and no one is certain how hard a job that’s going to be. That leaves us vulnerable to whatever the virus decides to do. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2003, 6:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-hysteria-over-sars/170533/52 "2003-04-25T06:59:12Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by LostCause \* > \*\*China has cancelled or postponed its 1st May (Labour’s Day?) holiday. In this one week holiday, people working at urban cities would take the opportunity to travel back to the countryside. > > The Chinese government knows this and they wish to put a halt to it, so the Chinese government are now taking SARS seriously (after the initial hush-up. Perhaps they could they could keep it under control themselves).\*\* Factually, the government has not cancelled the May Day holiday. It is running as 3 business days off from May 1 through May 5. What the government eliminated is the habit of giving people the option of working the weekend of April 26 & 27, and then taking on two more days so that the holiday would run a consecutive 7 days (May 1-6). Because many people have to travel more than 24 hours door to door, cutting the option two days out is expected to keep people from travelling. However, reports have put at least half a million people have left Beijing over the past few days and easily could number in the millions of non-Beijingers fleeing the city. I seriously doubt that this was a systematic coverup from the Politboro on down. Rather, a cover up by some individuals lower down the chain. Important distinction I think. ---
**Author:** ![Crowbar\_of\_Irony\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f08c70/32.png) [@Crowbar\_of\_Irony\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crowbar_of_Irony_3)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2003, 10:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-hysteria-over-sars/170533/53 "2003-04-25T10:44:43Z")
> [@](#): > > I seriously doubt that this was a systematic coverup from the Politboro on down. Rather, a cover up by some individuals lower down the chain. Important distinction I think. Yes, thanks for China Guy’s clarification. Something about the mayor Beijing was in the election and he didn’t want any foul-up. That guy was sacked, along with the Minster of Health. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2003, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-hysteria-over-sars/170533/54 "2003-04-25T18:16:18Z")
**Bosda** linked this in another thread in MPSIMS, but I thought a couple of quotes here would also help to explain “why the hysteria…” > [@](#): > > _Originally from an article in [New Scientist](http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99993662)_ > With many cases still unresolved, a better current estimate of the deadliness of SARS may be the number of deaths as a proportion of resolved cases. Those numbers for Hong Kong, Canada and Singapore are 15.8, 18.3 and 13.7 per cent. But these too could be misleading if, for example, it takes longer to recover from a disease than to die from it. > > In China, this death rate is only 8.8 per cent. But statistics there are widely mistrusted, after Chinese authorities withheld nearly all information until recently. The Chinese statistics may also include cases of pneumonia due to bacterial infections, a widespread problem there, and which are cured with antibiotics. > > … > > Uncertainty may dog the exact calculation, but it now seems clear that in the absence of a cure or a vaccine, SARS could eventually kill millions. The best hope is a vaccine. At a high-level meeting last week in Washington DC, every major vaccine company reported that it had begun a research programme. This is far and away the highest mortality rate I’ve seen quoted in association with this, and goes back to some of **Clair** ’s original contention on not really knowing" the true mortality rate for a while. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-the-hysteria-over-sars/170533.md?page=2)