A lot of you gloomier Guses ignore factors which we might as well think of as the efficiency of progress. Or the progress of efficiency.
Take the aforementioned MRI, lately the techno-darling of medicine. It’s a sumbitch, no two ways about it. Also very, very expensive. Hence, factoring in costs for increasing demand for this machine by patients gives a very hefty price tag for the future.
Except that the machine is likely to get cheaper. Nerds will tinker, improvements will be made, and maybe, just maybe, a really bright bulb will discover something that can make the MRI as common as the desktop computer. Hell, I’d love to have one! (And my own Hubble and an electron microscope, if you’re listening, Santa…)
Every new milestone discovery is expensive at first, you are likely to overestimate the expense of the discovery if you don’t factor in the efficiency of progress.
And then, of course, there is another unquantifiable factor, and that is the health of our citizenry. Is anyone fool enough to deny that healthy citizens are, by definition, more likely to be productive? More efficient than someone who should have had his gallstones removed six months ago, but couldn’t afford it? Need we belabor that point, that treating our citizens well is likely to have hard, bottom line benefits? One would be ashamed to need to.
Will such efficiencies of progress make our debt worries evaporate? Probably not, but I don’t know, and the unquantifiable makes a poor ground for argument beyond educated guess.
But if there is a reasonable chance that it may and that it will bring great benefit to our fellow Americans, oughtn’t we take such a risk? A poker player will say calling a five dollar bet to get a ten to chance to win isn’t a good bet, but if there’s a thousand dollars in the pot, its a darn good bet, even if the odds are against you.
And, of course, there are other possible efficiencies of budget to consider. Perhaps the next time somebody wants to build a super-whizzbang jet fighter that doesn’t work in the rain, they can hold a bake sale. Or the next time they want to go haring off on a military adventure, they think twice. And again, twice. Few more, for good measure.