# Why Trump Supporters Think He'll Win **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 30, 2016, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305 "2016-07-30T17:05:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![srzss05](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/898d66/32.png) [@srzss05](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/srzss05)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2016, 9:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305/41 "2016-07-31T09:02:55Z")
> [@Sam\_Lowry](#): > > I’m not saying that there’s no chance of Trump winning, but I think a significant number of Republicans will stay home, and a few will actually vote for Hillary. [The Houston Chronicle endorsed Clinton](http://www.chron.com/opinion/recommendations/article/For-Hillary-Clinton-8650345.php), and that’s fairly significant that they endorsed a Democrat and so early. Not that the endorsement will necessarily sway many minds, but I think it shows some general trends. Also I’m in Texas and have more than a few conservatives on my Facebook pages, and I’ve seen several say that they aren’t voting for Trump, and might vote for Johnson instead. It seems like if literally any other candidate won then they’d be “my party, right or wrong”, but they are having a real hard time going with Trump. And it’s not like he’ll get less offensive as the campaign goes on. I hope you are right, but would guess you are wrong. I’m a staunch conservative (edit—more of a libertarian), and have no intention of voting, but I know of a lot of others that say Trump is right, and plan on voting. ---
**Author:** ![srzss05](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/898d66/32.png) [@srzss05](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/srzss05)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2016, 9:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305/42 "2016-07-31T09:12:51Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > No, they’re saying you _shouldn’t_ vote for Trump. Not should. Easy mistake. Neither party meets this criteria. ---
**Author:** ![srzss05](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/898d66/32.png) [@srzss05](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/srzss05)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2016, 9:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305/43 "2016-07-31T09:17:24Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > I’m not sure whether the hope of reasoning them out of voting for Der Trumpenfeuhrer is > …ridiculously optimistic. It’s this. Trust me. I’m one of them. ---
**Author:** ![srzss05](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/898d66/32.png) [@srzss05](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/srzss05)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2016, 9:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305/44 "2016-07-31T09:26:06Z")
[Quote=Originally Posted by jayjay] Not even possible. The die-hard Trumpies are lost to reason and reality. They’d NEVER vote for Hillary or probably ANY Dem, unless we started running the ones who used to be Dems in the 50s and 60s again. I’m not sure whether the hope of reasoning them out of voting for Der Trumpenfeuhrer is naive, insane or ridiculously optimistic. [/quote] > [@hajario](#): > > Change a few words and you perfectly describe a large number of Democrats. Agreed. ---
**Author:** ![Ukulele\_Ike](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/df788c/32.png) [@Ukulele\_Ike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ukulele_Ike)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2016, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305/45 "2016-07-31T14:02:44Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > An approach that might get through to that type of person: “Don’t you care that the entire world will be _laughing_ at us if we elect Trump? He’s widely regarded overseas as a fool and a buffoon.” Do you really think the average Trump supporter gives a damn about what people overseas think? My god, I hear some of them speak FRENCH. How stuck-up is that? I would lay a bet that over 90% of Trump supporters have never owned a passport. And that a like number have never visited New York, DC, LA, San Francisco, or Chicago, because those places are full of the fags and the coloreds. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2016, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305/46 "2016-07-31T14:07:30Z")
> [@Ukulele\_Ike](#): > > I would lay a bet that over 90% of Trump supporters have never owned a passport. And that a like number have never visited New York, DC, LA, San Francisco, or Chicago, because those places are full of the fags and the coloreds. True they may be in the 10% minority, but I’ve seen quite a few American Trump supporters here in Thailand. ---
**Author:** ![mozchron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/c2a13f/32.png) [@mozchron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mozchron)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2016, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305/47 "2016-07-31T14:22:15Z")
Anecdote time: One of my Facebook acquaintances (and her husband) are die-hard trump supporters. Both HIGHLY educated (she’s a lawyer, he’s in finance). Both naturalized immigrants (she’s from southeast asia, he’s from europe). They LOVELOVELOVE Trump, for 2 reasons: 1) his anti-muslim stance and 2) his anti immigrant stance (and she’s actually an immigration lawyer). Maybe 3 reasons - they also hate Hillary (and Obama) with a passion, for reasons that even they can not fully articulate. The anti-Hillary rhetoric come from way before this campaign. These are the only things that matters. Trump could eat a live baby on CNN and they’d still vote for him. You CAN NOT reason with these people. Its very interesting from an academic standpoint - on almost any other topic, they are sane, well informed, and capable of holding a reasoned discussion. But with Trump, its like a switch is turned. I hope that they are outliers. I fear they are not. ---
**Author:** ![Ukulele\_Ike](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/df788c/32.png) [@Ukulele\_Ike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ukulele_Ike)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2016, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305/48 "2016-07-31T14:23:16Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > True they may be in the 10% minority, but I’ve seen quite a few American Trump supporters here in Thailand. Ah, but are the Trumpians in Thailand to A) Study the history of the Khmer Empire and the ruins at Ayutthaya B) Devote themselves to deep reflection and meditation at a Buddhist temple C) Boff underage whores? ---
**Author:** ![srzss05](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/898d66/32.png) [@srzss05](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/srzss05)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2016, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305/49 "2016-07-31T14:47:25Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > True they may be in the 10% minority, but I’ve seen quite a few American Trump supporters here in Thailand. Luckily, loud vocal minority does not equal majority. Unluckikly…Trump is major candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Lowry](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e95f7d/32.png) [@Sam\_Lowry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Lowry)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2016, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305/50 "2016-07-31T14:48:44Z")
> [@Ukulele\_Ike](#): > > Do you really think the average Trump supporter gives a damn about what people overseas think? My god, I hear some of them speak FRENCH. How stuck-up is that? > > I would lay a bet that over 90% of Trump supporters have never owned a passport. And that a like number have never visited New York, DC, LA, San Francisco, or Chicago, because those places are full of the fags and the coloreds. [Trump voters earn more and are better educated than the typical American](http://qz.com/679589/trump-voters-earn-more-and-are-better-educated-than-the-typical-american/). I’d guess that much more than 10% of Trump voters have passports and have been overseas, and even more have been to the big cities in the US. Of course I don’t know how many care about opinions overseas or opinions of big city people. ---
**Author:** ![srzss05](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/898d66/32.png) [@srzss05](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/srzss05)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2016, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305/51 "2016-07-31T14:53:46Z")
> [@mozchron](#): > > Anecdote time: > > One of my Facebook acquaintances (and her husband) are die-hard trump supporters. Both HIGHLY educated (she’s a lawyer, he’s in finance). Both naturalized immigrants (she’s from southeast asia, he’s from europe). > > They LOVELOVELOVE Trump, for 2 reasons: 1) his anti-muslim stance and 2) his anti immigrant stance (and she’s actually an immigration lawyer). > > Maybe 3 reasons - they also hate Hillary (and Obama) with a passion, for reasons that even they can not fully articulate. The anti-Hillary rhetoric come from way before this campaign. > > These are the only things that matters. Trump could eat a live baby on CNN and they’d still vote for him. > > You CAN NOT reason with these people. Its very interesting from an academic standpoint - on almost any other topic, they are sane, well informed, and capable of holding a reasoned discussion. But with Trump, its like a switch is turned. > > I hope that they are outliers. I fear they are not. It’s not (in this case), and I really am almost on board as well, not pro-Trump but anti-Clinton. Beleive me…If I were less sane I could almost emphasize. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2016, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305/52 "2016-07-31T15:28:10Z")
> [@Anny\_Middon](#): > > Bust mostly, it’s that they don’t give a shit about who Trump is or what he’ll do for them. What they really care about is that he’s sticking it to people they hate: > > I admit that even though I kinda knew this already, reading about it was chilling. “Who cares about what will happen to our country? Who cares if we get embroiled in another war? Who cares if we lose our allies so that when we do go to war, we’re fighting it by ourselves? We’re sticking it to The Man!” > [@BigT](#): > > These are just the angry people who made up his base in the primary. The ones that are, unfortunately, pretty much a lost cause. That doesn’t mean we should make fun of them. (The correct emotion is pity.) But they are unfortunately stuck in their ways. > > They are using angry logic, which is about winning rather than being right. Right. Paradoxically the Trumpistas remind me a lot of the most fanatical Chavistas in Venezuela: they don’t care that much if the country is crashing and burning because their POV is their life already sucked before, but they have the satisfaction that for the people who \*used \*to have middle class lives it now sucks too. Of course, The Man includes all those R-denominated politicians who, deprived of the external threat of the commies, switched inward and for a generation went to that population telling them the country we live in is a dystopian hellscape of crime, promiscuity, secularist amorality and and statist tyranny, and promising to institute some bizarre unviable hybrid of business Libertopia with social Jesusland (Christ’s Gulch?) knowing full well they really had no way to deliver it all. > [@Anny\_Middon](#): > > A lot of the article was about why they think he’ll win. And I admit, it’s bizarre – they don’t need a “proper campaign” – people will go to the polls to vote for Trump because his message is exciting. Republicans will all vote for him because he’s now the boss of the party. White men will vote for him. He’ll do at least as well with Latino men as Romney. He’ll do better with black men that Romney did. Every time people demand he shows respect for Hillary and then laugh when Hillary disrespects him, more men will vote for him. > > I find it interesting that the men who are quoted in this piece don’t see any difference in personal attack on someone vs. attack on their words and/or actions. > [@ThelmaLou](#): > > The thing I thought was fascinating was that the hypothetical Trump lovers interpreted the absence of Republican leadership from the convention and their general silence as a response to Trump as an indication of their RESPECT for him. But not sincere respect-- it’s the respect you have for someone who can damage you, who is holding you hostage. Holy shit. It’s the “respect” they understand. The respect born of power. It’s the world-model of the “Stern Father” as source of morality, of the threat of punishment as the prime motivation to act properly, what’s called authoritatian personality. They grew up taught you don’t kill not out of empathy for another life but because we’ll hang/gas you; you act morally not because it’s better for society but because otherwise God will set you on fire for the rest of eternity (and to say the contrary will itself get you set on fire for eternity). You don’t question the boss about the wisdom of a decision because he’ll fire you, nor your dad because Honor Thy Father or else he’ll whip your hide; you don’t date that boy or else we’ll cast you out on the street. Confronting the authority is, in this worldview, an act of personal disrespect and great impudence. Respect is submitting to authority. Want to question it? Get \*greater \*power _yourself_. Too many people misinterpret Machiavelli’s maxim as saying that the ideal state is to be feared. Machiavelli was arguing that the Prince needs to be _respected_, and explaining that alas due to human nature, no matter how great your good policies you can’t impose love, but with a reasonable level of rigor you can impose fear. Many skip right over the part where he proceeds to say that the Prince must take care that he not go overboard and actually begin gratuituously harming people because that will only make him himself _hated_, and then he’ll fall. > [@asahi](#): > > Trump seems like a crazy candidate and an impossible one, but when you really study American politics, it’s not that hard to fathom a Trump win. I mean, let’s be real here: American presidents have repeatedly been elected on the basis of being a disruptor. It’s like that old Sesame Street song “One of these kids is doin his own thing, one of this kids is not the same.” > > You have a generation or two of Americans who think the system sucks, they all suck, they’re all the same, both parties do it. Lazy intellectuals. Brain-dead American voters. The chickens are coming home to roost, and if they don’t in this election, they will in the elections that follow. Honestly, Hillary Clinton would be better than Trump - we all know that. But it’s not like it solves the problem of American political gridlock. We’ll just be even more polarized. Nothing will change until we get more educated voters. But that might not happen in my lifetime. > [@DSeid](#): > > They think he’ll win because most of the people they personally talk politics with are also planning on voting Trump. The world they live in, mostly also White and less educated, is what they see, and what they perceive is the vast majority of the country, and how they believe most of the country will vote. > > They think he’ll win because they believe that the country’s demographics is mostly them and that GOP candidates have only lost because they have been too politically correct. > > They think he’ll win because their experience is one that choose to view as a dystopic America, as Trump states, and they think that the 40% of Democrat voters and leaners who voted for Sanders see it that way too and will cross over. > > They think he’ll win because despite how much he should be losing by right now the race is not yet a slam dunk and there is a real chance he could, if only everyone realizes like they do how much a catastrophe Hillary Clinton as president would be. > [@srzss05](#): > > I hope you are right, but would guess you are wrong. I’m a staunch conservative (edit—more of a libertarian), and have no intention of voting, but I know of a lot of others that say Trump is right, and plan on voting. Alas, a lot of people among the R base have had so ingrained and drilled into their minds what utter horror a continued Democrat adminstration would be… and yes, many of the Trump base ARE 100% convinced of how utterly horribly we are on the way to dystopia, and if only everyone else woke up and opened their eyes… The scary part is they’ll find fertile soil among many R and potential-R voters thanks to decades of having that soil watered from a poisoned well. Many of those voters may be tempted by the idea of maybe having some legislation and SCOTUS appointments that kill any leftward movement whatsoever for a generation. ---
**Author:** ![Jennshark](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Jennshark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jennshark)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2016, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305/53 "2016-07-31T15:42:37Z")
According to a co-worker I otherwise like, Jesus Cheeto “says the things we all want to say but are afraid to. Because political correctness.” 538 has Hillary leading the polls again. Silver’s “who would win today” scenario has Clinton by a landslide. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2016, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305/54 "2016-07-31T17:05:46Z")
> [@Jennshark](#): > > According to a co-worker I otherwise like, Jesus Cheeto “says the things we all want to say but are afraid to. Because political correctness.” > > 538 has Hillary leading the polls again. Silver’s “who would win today” scenario has Clinton by a landslide. > **[2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=mobilebar&v=1)** > > Nate Silver's predictions and polling data for the 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump Silver says she as a 51% chance of winning. This is very different than if she wins it will be by a landslide. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2016, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305/55 "2016-07-31T17:08:08Z")
And actually, I don’t see anything on there about a Clinton landslide. He says that Trump has a 88% chance of doing better than Romney in 2012. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2016, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305/56 "2016-07-31T18:13:56Z")
> [@Jennshark](#): > > According to a co-worker I otherwise like, Jesus Cheeto “says the things we all want to say but are afraid to. Because political correctness.” If any situation ever called for the “what you mean WE, Kemosabe?” wisecrack… That was touched on above by **DSeid**. A large number of people are existentially convinced that the vast majority of us cannot possibly feel or believe any but same way as them, and that our expressions and even factual counter-evidence to the contrary are entirely disingenuous and fabricated, for the sole purpose of gaining an advantage. ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2016, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305/57 "2016-07-31T18:39:45Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > And actually, I don’t see anything on there about a Clinton landslide. He says that Trump has a 88% chance of doing better than Romney in 2012. Yes, even some looking down on ‘uneducated Trump supporters’ seem to have trouble themselves distinguishing the statistical concepts of being ahead in a poll (or average of polls) by X% points and having X% points greater chance of winning according to a model based on polls. The race has changed and will probably change again one way or another before it’s over but as of now the principal reason someone might think Trump will win is that he’s basically tied in the polls and some model output’s like Sliver’s\*‘polls only’ show that outcome virtually as likely as Clinton winning (again 2% points ahead in average of polls is a real though not comfortable lead in the polarized US electorate, 51% chance of winning in a model output is negligibly different than an absolute tie). \*in fairness some other poll modelers’ results haven’t shown Clinton’s winning probability getting down close to 50, and even Silver’s ‘polls plus’ model is back to 60-40 in favor of Clinton. But again even 40% chance of winning is not the territory where you start psychoanalyzing the ‘delusion’ that that candidate could win, it’s saying the person well might win. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2016, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305/58 "2016-07-31T21:24:09Z")
> [@Sam\_Lowry](#): > > [Trump voters earn more and are better educated than the typical American](http://qz.com/679589/trump-voters-earn-more-and-are-better-educated-than-the-typical-american/). I’d guess that much more than 10% of Trump voters have passports and have been overseas, and even more have been to the big cities in the US. Of course I don’t know how many care about opinions overseas or opinions of big city people. Well, either that or Trump voters lie their faces off about their education and incomes in exit polls. I mean, just because they all tell the pollsters that they have college degrees doesn’t mean they actually do. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2016, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305/59 "2016-08-01T01:01:58Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > [http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex\_cid=mobilebar&v=1](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=mobilebar&v=1) > > Silver says she as a 51% chance of winning. This is very different than if she wins it will be by a landslide. Silver has three forecasts. That’s polls only. The polls-plus has her chances at 60% and the nowcast is at 56%. None of them mean much of anything because most of the polls following the convention haven’t yet appeared. Interestingly, Rasmussen, which for a month was the only outlier showing Trump ahead before the Republican convention just released results that shows Clinton with a one-point lead. Statistically insignificant but the reverse of the trend line is the important takeaway. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2016, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305/60 "2016-08-01T01:09:33Z")
We have 4 post DNC polls now. Hillary has received a bounce. We have reverted to a more typical Hillary lead. > July only: > I’d like to get Trump down to 35%. That would send a message to future demagogues. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-trump-supporters-think-hell-win/761305.md?page=4)