# Why Would Assad Use Chemical Weapons? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 26, 2013, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238 "2013-08-26T19:47:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2013, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238/41 "2013-08-27T19:28:52Z")
This whole thing reminds me of the story cooked up by the USA, that North Vietnam was using chemical weapons in Cambodia. It turned out that the “poison” was actually bee droppings. It sounds like Obama wants some excuse to get involved in this…don’t ask me why. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2013, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238/42 "2013-08-27T19:42:14Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > It’s hard for me to see the motive in this. He knows that doing so will risk having major powers drawn in to the war against him. I can see the reason for doing it if he was down for the count, and/or if he did a major game-changing attack. But as it is, momentum of late seems to be on his side, and these seem to be small time attacks. The risk doesn’t seem to be worth the reward. > > Could he be miscalculating that chemical weapons will make other powers less likely to intervene rather than more? Or could he be testing out his chemical weapons arsenal is preparation for possible larger scale attacks later on? Those are the only possibilities that I can think of. How about this speculation. He uses chemical weapons in a limited manner, the world fulminates (but does nothing), or lobs a few ineffective cruise missiles. Rinse and repeat, play fast & loose with deniability and inspectors, keeping a close eye on (particularly) US popularity re intervention in Syria. Watches as time goes by as US willingness to do anything costly about Syria decreases and weariness/boredom on the part of the US public with the situation increases. When he’s sure that the US has given up any real notion of effective intervention, he then moves on to bigger and better nastiness, like chemical weapons on a grander scale with (hopefully for him) true war-winning intimidation capacity, knowing that the world will not do diddly squat if the US won’t foot most of the bill. Remember, he has his dad’s example of the Hama massacre, as mentioned above. The world did diddly squat then, and the intimidation seemed to work. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2013, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238/43 "2013-08-27T20:11:30Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Before the Iraq war, John Kerry was entirely certain that Saddam had WMDs. I really would like to think you know better. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2013, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238/44 "2013-08-27T20:22:20Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > Remember, he has his dad’s example of the Hama massacre, as mentioned above. The world did diddly squat then, and the intimidation seemed to work. But he also has the more recent example of Khadafi, where the world did more. Not to mention Milosevic. And he knows that Obama has declared chemical weapons to be a red line - there’s been a lot of press about this line, and Obama risks looking foolish if he does nothing, so he’s under pressure from that alone. It’s a high risk strategy for Assad to take. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2013, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238/45 "2013-08-27T20:30:48Z")
His alternative is to get Ceasescued, so maybe it isn’t high risk at all for him. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2013, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238/46 "2013-08-27T20:35:33Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > It’s not the what, but the who that is in question, it seems. Kerry is reporting what he’s seen with his own eyes, but he hasn’t said that it’s Assad who’s doing it, AFAIK. I think you are mistaken, twice. Kerry is not AFAIK claiming to have seen the chemical weapons being used with his own eyes, but he alleges there is “clear evidence” of their use. And he is rather unambiguously blaming it, not on the rebels, but on the Syrian government - > [@](#): > > Secretary of State John Kerry said Monday that the use of chemical weapons in attacks on civilians in Syria last week was undeniable and that the Obama administration would hold the Syrian government accountable for a “moral obscenity” that has shocked the world’s conscience. > > In some of the most aggressive language used yet by the administration, Mr. Kerry accused the Syrian government of the “indiscriminate slaughter of civilians” and of cynical efforts to cover up its responsibility for a “cowardly crime.” > > …In the coming days, officials said, the nation’s intelligence agencies will disclose information to bolster their case that chemical weapons were used by Mr. Assad’s forces. [Cite](http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/27/world/middleeast/syria-assad.html?_r=0). Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2013, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238/47 "2013-08-27T20:38:21Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > His alternative is to get Ceasescued, so maybe it isn’t high risk at all for him. I don’t think so, and none of the recent analysis has been along these lines. Assad has ad the momentum of late, backed strongly by Iran and Hezbollah, and it’s been widely said that there was little chance that he would be ousted from his own home turf in Syria. (Conquering back the entire country is a tougher challenge.) ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2013, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238/48 "2013-08-27T20:40:36Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > It’s a high risk strategy for Assad to take. Not really. From the same article - > [@](#): > > Administration officials said that although President Obama had not made a final decision on military action, he was likely to order a limited military operation — cruise missiles launched from American destroyers in the Mediterranean Sea at military targets in Syria, for example — and not a sustained air campaign intended to topple Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president, or to fundamentally alter the nature of the conflict on the ground. Obama isn’t going to do nothing. He’s going to do nothing effective. This will not swing the balance back to the rebels, nor will it prevent future use of WMDs, which Assad is currently hiding for next time. But it will allow Obama to say that he did something about crossing the red line of WMDs. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2013, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238/49 "2013-08-27T20:43:17Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > But he also has the more recent example of Khadafi, where the world did more. Not to mention Milosevic. And he knows that Obama has declared chemical weapons to be a red line - there’s been a lot of press about this line, and Obama risks looking foolish if he does nothing, so he’s under pressure from that alone. > > It’s a high risk strategy for Assad to take. Well sure. But he can read the stuff on the internet as well as we can. He knows that the US public believes, in general, that intervention in Syria is more pointless than intervention in Lybia or Serbia. Certainly it is high risk, but remember, the US has so far done little even though there has been evidence around for some time that the Syrians have used chemical weapons (albeit on a small scale). He’s gambilng that the US will continue to do little in the future, or restrict itself to mostly symbolic gestures. He knows actual appetite for long-term, intensive military intervention is small. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2013, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238/50 "2013-08-27T21:53:25Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Not really. From the same article -Obama isn’t going to do nothing. He’s going to do nothing effective. This will not swing the balance back to the rebels, nor will it prevent future use of WMDs, which Assad is currently hiding for next time. But it will allow Obama to say that he did something about crossing the red line of WMDs. > > Regards, > Shodan Yes, because he has a history of doing nothing effective. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2013, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238/51 "2013-08-27T23:59:22Z")
> [@Roderick\_Femm](#): > > As someone started a thread to ask a while back, why is everyone so eager for Obama to get the US heavily involved in what is happening in Syria? [They](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/digits-americans-wary-syria-intervention-20077858) [aren’t](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/08/26/new-poll-syria-intervention-even-less-popular-than-congress/). > [@](#): > > — Seventy percent told Pew Research Center pollsters in June that they opposed sending arms and military supplies to anti-government groups in Syria. That poll was conducted around the time the Obama administration announced it would be providing military aid to the anti-government forces. > > — An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released earlier in June showed that two-thirds of Americans preferred that the U.S. provide only humanitarian assistance or take no action, compared with just a quarter who favored either providing arms or taking military action. > > — A Gallup survey in May found 68 percent thought the U.S. should not intervene militarily to end the conflict should economic and diplomatic efforts to end it fail. > [@](#): > > A new Reuters/Ipsos poll has finally found something that Americans like even less than Congress: the possibility of U.S. military intervention in Syria. Only 9 percent of respondents said that the Obama administration should intervene militarily in Syria; a RealClearPolitics poll average finds Congress has a 15 percent approval rating, making the country’s most hated political body almost twice as popular. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2013, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238/52 "2013-08-28T21:01:56Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > Yes, because he has a history of doing nothing effective. :rolleyes: No, it’s because lobbing missiles isn’t likely to be effective. So no matter what his history, this is not going to be effective. Even the New York Times says it isn’t going to alter the nature of the conflict. So save the rolleyes. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2013, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238/53 "2013-08-28T21:08:01Z")
I read this morning that one theory on why Assad used CW was due to a recent assassination attempt that shook him up. This supposedly happened in early August and the recent CW attack was allegedly in retaliation for that. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2013, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238/54 "2013-08-28T21:12:58Z")
I’m not sure Assad is in complete control anymore. Some of his generals may be fighting the war the way they see fit. The military may not answer directly to Assad anymore. This article claims even the defense chief was in the dark. > **[U.S. spies certain Assad used nerve gas 'after intercepting phone call from...](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2403778/Syria-crisis-U-S-spies-certain-Assad-used-nerve-gas-intercepting-defence-chief.html)** > > Just hours after the attack last Wednesday an official at the Syrian Ministry of Defense exchanged phone calls with a leader of a chemical weapons unit, demanding answers, according to the claims. > [@](#): > > The U.S is confident that Syria was behind the deadly chemical weapons attack after intercepting a phone call from a Syrian defence chief demanding an explanation from its chemical weapon military unit for the action, according to new claims. > > Just hours after the attack last Wednesday an official at the Syrian Ministry of Defense exchanged panicked phone calls with a leader of the unit, demanding answers, according to website Foreign Policy. > > The phone call was intercepted by U.S spies according to the website, and is now the reason that America is confident that it was carried out by the regime. ---
**Author:** ![truthSeeker2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7cd45c/32.png) [@truthSeeker2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/truthSeeker2)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238/55 "2013-08-29T04:40:59Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > [They](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/digits-americans-wary-syria-intervention-20077858) [aren’t](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/08/26/new-poll-syria-intervention-even-less-popular-than-congress/). This suggests that people of US are fine, its the government which is rogue. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 11:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238/56 "2013-08-29T11:14:05Z")
good news…the UK Parliament has told Cameron :“No War”; now Obama is floundering and backtracking. Its the perfect ending to a screwed up idea. Maybe Congress is starting to listen to their constituents! ---
**Author:** ![aNewLeaf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ac91a4/32.png) [@aNewLeaf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aNewLeaf)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 11:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238/57 "2013-08-29T11:49:36Z")
> [@truthSeeker2](#): > > This suggests that people of US are fine, its the government which is rogue. You can’t talk about government as being separate from the people. We are the government, you and I. We the people. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 12:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238/58 "2013-08-29T12:13:41Z")
Did the president bite off more than he can chew by making strident “red line” statements? Yeah, I think so. Is he being taken to task for them? Looks that way and rightly so. But it seems to me that he’s listening and taking it all in and weighing the options. Good for him in doing so. To do otherwise in the face of prevailing wisdom and good judgement would be a sign of a foolish and arrogant man. He doesn’t strike me as that sort. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238/59 "2013-08-29T13:01:56Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > I’m not sure Assad is in complete control anymore. Some of his generals may be fighting the war the way they see fit. The military may not answer directly to Assad anymore. > > This article claims even the defense chief was in the dark. > > [Syria crisis: U.S. spies certain Assad used nerve gas 'after intercepting call from defence chief' | Daily Mail Online](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2403778/Syria-crisis-U-S-spies-certain-Assad-used-nerve-gas-intercepting-defence-chief.html) Interesting how the last “US ally” mentioned in that article – “ally” here meaning “entity outraged by Assad’s chemical weapons attack, and vowing a serious and perhaps deadly response” – is none other than Al Quaeda. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2013, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238/60 "2013-08-29T13:49:32Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > Did the president bite off more than he can chew by making strident “red line” statements? Yeah, I think so. Is he being taken to task for them? Looks that way and rightly so. But it seems to me that he’s listening and taking it all in and weighing the options. Good for him in doing so. To do otherwise in the face of prevailing wisdom and good judgement would be a sign of a foolish and arrogant man. He doesn’t strike me as that sort. The problem here is that losing credibility is a serious thing too. You have a strong military but you don’t want to need to actually go to war when you really need something done, you need to have your threats be taken seriously so that you can avoid actual wars. By making a big deal about how something is a red line - which is commonly understood to mean you will absolutely do something serious about it - and then backing off, you increase the likelihood that people will call your bluff again next time, perhaps on something even more crucial. Which increases the likelihood that you’ll have to go to war on a broader scale versus threatening people into line. Obama’s challenge is to try to thread the needle here, in doing something to preserve his - and by extension the country’s - credibility, while not doing anything which is otherwise counterproductive. It’s a tough all. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons/667238.md?page=4)