I’ve been pondering this myself. MLK’s nonviolent resistance worked because:
- The protesters were willing to let themselves get bloodied up and arrested.
- This was reported in the press, in print, photos, and TV.
- The people who saw these images were shocked.
- They were shocked enough to vote for change in the next election.
What worries me is that some or all of those variables may not be present at the moment.
I see some protesting, but not many people ready to become examples of violent treatment. The stakes today aren’t just getting bitten by a police dog or whacked by a truncheon, you could end up in a secret prison in El Salvador.
The violence will be shared in some media, but not in all the media where it would make the difference. We lack a “consensus” media nowadays, where everyone was watching the same footage and could discuss it, even if they came to different conclusions. There are so many fragmented sources that we’re mostly not all getting the same information. And AI suspicion has created a good deal of skepticism that what we’re seeing is real.
There’s no longer a majority of people in this country who would see people of color getting beaten on TV and be shocked and disgusted. In decades past, non-Southerners would look at these images and be horrified, but now MAGA has made inroads into northern states and suburban areas. Plus, people are more willing than ever to misbelieve footage and images that they see. Just the suspicion of bias and selective editing is enough, and that’s before we even get to the problems posed by AI.
As for #4, the fate of free and fair elections is more in doubt that it’s ever been. The vote for change will need to be overwhelming enough to overcome the accusations of rigging, as well as the actual rigging that seems likely to happen.
I’m not suggesting that protest is ineffective and nobody should do it, but this time around, it’s going to take more than getting mauled by a police dog on the front page of the news paper, and moreover I’m not seeing many people who are even willing to take that kind of physical risk (yet).