# Why would the Nord Stream pipelines have been sabotaged? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [September 27, 2022, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320 "2022-09-27T14:42:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![abcdefghij](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/43a26b/32.png) [@abcdefghij](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abcdefghij)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 11:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320/101 "2022-10-01T11:02:52Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > The Zaibatsu companies in Japan produce every type of product so, even though the array of products that they produce is widely varied, they only have a few corporations. [Keiretsu](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keiretsu). [Zaibatsu](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaibatsu) were a Meiji-era thing that were disbanded at the end of WWII. ---
**Author:** ![abcdefghij](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/43a26b/32.png) [@abcdefghij](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/abcdefghij)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 11:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320/102 "2022-10-01T11:32:51Z")
> [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > I hope it was Elon Musk, I haven’t heard anything stupid from him for two weeks or so. He does have that [idiotic submarine](https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/a22150734/elon-musks-mad-mini-submarine-didnt-help-thai-cave-rescue/) and releasing methane furthers his agenda of moving everybody to Mars. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 11:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320/103 "2022-10-01T11:39:22Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > > [@Pardel-Lux](#): > > > > I wonder what you mean by that. There is the European Commission, the European Council, the EU Parliament and 27 governments in the Member States. But there is no EU government that I know of. > > Likewise, the US government has the House, the Senate, the Executive Branch, the President, the Supreme Court, the DOJ, etc. > > Breaking something down into its constituent parts doesn’t change what is is. Jumping in for a quick comment on this, because the American and the European are talking past one another across an unrecognized semantic gap. As an American transplant to Europe, it took me a bit to get my own head around it and adjust my terminology. Generally speaking, for an American, _everything_ that is part of the state apparatus is “government.” The executive, the legislature, the judiciary, the counter at the department of motor vehicles, the administration of the school district … If it’s not private, church, or non profit, it’s “government.” It’s a very broad term meaning those who have been delegated to run the public sector. But elsewhere, “government” has a much narrower meaning. Think of the political argument raging in the UK right now, which has members of Parliament raging against Liz Truss’s government. The people she has recruited to carry out her political agenda are “in government.” This is _distinct_ from Parliament as the lawmaking body, or from the civil servants who staff the ministries. The ministry’s _leader_ is in government, as they drive the agenda, and the civil servants report to and serve the government, but they are not _in and of_ the government, strictly speaking. So from these two perspectives: The American looks at the EU’s lawmaking body (accepting the nuance that its laws are not _laws_ per se but must be transcribed into law by member states), and sees people elected and delegated by the public to decide how things are run, so that’s “government.” But the European looks at Brussels and sees _only_ the Parliament and the administrative services supporting it (plus the Bank in Frankfurt and the Court in Luxembourg, etc.), with no centralized executive carrying out a unified political agenda, and does _not_ see “government.” I hope this clarifies the context of the disagreement. ---
**Author:** ![Pardel-Lux](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pardel-lux/32/20182_2.png) [@Pardel-Lux](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pardel-Lux)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 12:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320/104 "2022-10-01T12:05:27Z")
Thanks for the clarification, I see what you mean and I believe you are right. Will keep that in mind in the future when I talk to US-Americans. (Damn, I should have known this.) ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320/105 "2022-10-01T15:57:51Z")
We shouldn’t rule out the possibility that this wasn’t sabotage but lousy manufacturing and maintenance. Having a fourth leak appear long after the first three seems to me to make it more likely that we’re just seeing the results of the pipeline being closed and left in that state. Maybe pressures built up and caused the leaks. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2022, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320/106 "2022-10-01T16:46:37Z")
> [@Cervaise](#): > > Jumping in for a quick comment on this, because the American and the European are talking past one another across an unrecognized semantic gap. As an American transplant to Europe, it took me a bit to get my own head around it and adjust my terminology. I believe the equivalent American term for what some other countries call a government would be an administration. We see the American government as a broad and ongoing entity. But entities like the Trump administration or the Biden administration are the groups in temporary control. ---
**Author:** ![am77494](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d2c977/32.png) [@am77494](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/am77494)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2022, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320/107 "2022-10-02T01:35:05Z")
I do work with Pipeline and Flow Assurance Engineers and know a little bit. Waited till the weekend to do some calcs. Hope this helps : > [@Chronos](#): > > It wouldn’t take nearly that much, if you used it intelligently, and plenty of explosives and other destructively-energetic chemicals Lets look at Nord Stream 1 : It would actually take quite a lot. The pipeline deign pressure was in excess of 200 bar (2901 psi). " The pipelines have a constant internal diameter of 1,153 millimetres. However, Nord Stream designed the pipeline with three different design pressure sections (220, 200 and 177.5 bar) and pipe wall thicknesses (34.4, 30.9 and 26.8 mm respectively) corresponding to the gas pressure drop over the long journey from Russia to Germany." You can see the laying out process here : [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rx\_5I8\_i\_bo&ab\_channel=NordStreamAG](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rx_5I8_i_bo&ab_channel=NordStreamAG) Summary : Approximately 4 ft diameter pipe, with metal thickness in excess of 1 inch, concrete reinforced and buried several feet under the sea bottom by digging trenches. (The pipe is buried underground (or rather under sea bottom) to avoid stresses from currents or anchors from ships or spanning (sea bottoms do not remain flat over long time ranges, you may endup with a pipe “hanging” from one “hill top” to another “hill top” thereby creating stresses. ) **Use of commercially available drones :** Lots of problems with this. First of all the depth is about 80m (262ft) - its not easy to make electronics that work at that depth and stay waterproof, because the water pressure is about 130 psi. Moreover at these depths drones cannot communicate using conventional wireless signals. They need to have wired communications or use sound transducers which are typically not off the shelf items. Also a confounding fact is that the maps of these pipelines are not published and locating the pipelines is not easy because they are buried. You may find out the general location of the pipe but the pipe may have moved etc etc - this explains the huge explosion **Quantity of methane (natural gas) released :** The pipeline was at a pressure of 105bar and dropped to 5 bar overnight. ([Nord Stream 2 pipeline pressure collapses mysteriously overnight | Nord Stream 2 pipeline | The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/26/nord-stream-2-pipeline-pressure-collapses-mysteriously-overnight)). Lets assume a 4.4 C (40F) temperature and 105 bar (1523 psi) gives a density of 90.19 kg/m3 (5.63 lb/ft3). Nord Stream 1 is about (297 + 378 + 548) 1223 km (760 miles) with a total volume of 1,276,935 m3 (45 million ft3).[https://www.wermac.org/pdf/nordstream1.pdf](https://www.wermac.org/pdf/nordstream1.pdf) That gives approximately **115 Metric tonnes** of Natural gas release Or 0.12 Million Metric Tons. This is the same ballpark _single day production_ of Cheniere Sabine Pass LNG (30 Million Metric Tons per year) [Cheniere | Sabine Pass](https://www.cheniere.com/where-we-work/sabine-pass) **Why was the pipeline pressurized when not in use ?** There are many reasons for this, I’ll present two : 1. Natural Gas hydrates : Natural gas is dehydrated before entering a pipeline to lower its dew point. Sometimes methanol is also injected to correct for hydrate formation. If a pipeline at 1523 psi is de-pressured fast to say 150 psi, the gas inside will reach a adiabatic expansion temperature of -53F (-47C). At these low temperatures, you increase the risks of hydrates blocking the pipeline, especially at low points, here is a picture of a hydrate plug : [https://i0.wp.com/www.arab-oil-naturalgas.com/wp-content/uploads/Hydrate.jpg?w=255&ssl=1](https://i0.wp.com/www.arab-oil-naturalgas.com/wp-content/uploads/Hydrate.jpg?w=255&ssl=1) 2. Thermal Stresses : A temperature change from 40 F to -53 F creates huge thermal stresses especially for a pipe that is 1000+ km long. So to avoid forming hydrates, and thermal stresses and other effects, pipeline operators do not swing the pressure too much. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2022, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320/108 "2022-10-02T02:05:37Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Unless you can prove that Greens have expertise, experience, and intent in fabricating the equivalent of 100kg of TNT, and mounting an undersea demo operation at 100 meter depths, this is pure fantasy. It’s not their MO, it’s not something they’re known for, it’s not expertise they’re known to have. It’s not “the Greens” who need the expertise. It only needs to be one person. Plenty of navies have underwater demolitions specialists, and any one of them, active duty or discharged, might have sympathies with some group or another. And that same one person might very well be able to obtain the explosives: Timothy McVeigh did, for instance. > [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > However you assess the risk of Germany cutting off weapons shipments… would Ukraine see any benefit in jeopardizing that? No, which would be a good reason for them to blow up the pipes. The biggest potential risk to the German weapon shipments would have been for Putin to trade gas in exchange for them stopping. That risk is now removed. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2022, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320/109 "2022-10-05T18:38:16Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > We shouldn’t rule out the possibility that this wasn’t sabotage but lousy manufacturing and maintenance. Having a fourth leak appear long after the first three seems to me to make it more likely that we’re just seeing the results of the pipeline being closed and left in that state. Maybe pressures built up and caused the leaks. ⁢ We can’t ignore it entirely, sure, but it seems a whole lot of people who seem to be in a position to know believe it was sabotage–whether they are on the pro-Russia side or the other side. It’s possible they’re wrong, or that this is all part of the fog of war, but I would rate it less likely. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2022, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320/110 "2022-10-05T19:18:06Z")
I agree with that. It’s less likely, but a possibility that should at least be kept in mind as evidence is collected. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2022, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320/111 "2022-10-06T11:59:54Z")
Wow. Thanks for all that info am77494. ---
**Author:** ![Askance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askance/32/8281_2.png) [@Askance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askance)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2022, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320/112 "2022-10-07T03:25:43Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > We can’t ignore it entirely, sure, but it seems a whole lot of people who seem to be in a position to know believe it was sabotage–whether they are on the pro-Russia side or the other side. > > It’s possible they’re wrong, or that this is all part of the fog of war, but I would rate it less likely. > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I agree with that. It’s less likely, but a possibility that should at least be kept in mind as evidence is collected. > An inspection of two of the leaks at the [Nord Stream gas pipelines](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/27/qa-what-is-known-so-far-about-the-nord-stream-gas-pipeline-leak) linking Russia to Europe via the Baltic Sea has reinforced suspicions they were caused by sabotage, Swedish authorities said. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2022, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320/113 "2022-10-08T16:28:59Z")
While I still think it was probably sabotage, a possible mechanism does occur to me for accidental damage: The pipeline must be maintained at some minimum pressure, for structural reasons. Any pipe that long will have some nonzero amount of leakage, so to maintain pressure, it’s necessary to continue to pump some quantity of gas into the pipe. And some bean-counting penny-pinching idiot might have decided that it was too expensive to continually pump methane into the pipe that they weren’t getting paid for, and so decided to start pumping in ordinary air, instead. Eventually, the pipes reached the right relative concentrations, some static spark or something similarly mundane triggered one, and the shock of the resulting explosion triggered the other. Yes, this would require monumental stupidity, but remember Hanlon’s razor, and remember that this is the same industrial culture that led to Chernobyl. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2022, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320/114 "2022-10-08T21:02:26Z")
Pretty much what I was thinking. Also, I have read that if the gas doesn’t flow, clathrate ‘plugs’ can develop. An operating pipeline runs ‘pigs’ through occassionally that scrape out the gunk. The pigs need flowing gas to propel them, so if the pipeline is closed the pigs can’t be used. Since the pipeline is shut off, I wonder if it developed plugs, then for some reason they tried to push gas through and it ruptured instead. > **[Pigging](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pigging)** > > In pipeline transportation, pigging is the practice of using pipeline inspection gauges or gadgets, devices generally referred to as pigs or scrapers, to perform various maintenance operations. This is done without stopping the flow of the product in the pipeline. > These operations include but are not limited to cleaning and inspecting the pipeline. This is accomplished by inserting the pig into a "pig launcher" (or "launching station") — an oversized section in the pipeline, reducing to the norm... ---
**Author:** ![McCaff](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/848f3c/32.png) [@McCaff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/McCaff)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2022, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320/115 "2022-10-10T20:34:02Z")
Yepper. Clearing the plug means working from both ends of the pipe, which in turn means admitting you have a problem. ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2022, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320/116 "2022-10-14T02:18:44Z")
Here’s an expert on the side of bad Russian procedures trying to clear a plug. Fun??? read. [https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html](https://thelawdogfiles.com/2022/09/nordstream.html) ."…“But what issues could happen in an undersea pipeline that could cause ruptures?” Oh, my sweet summer child. Many, many, many. You might go far as to ask, “What issues won’t cause a rupture in an undersea pipeline?” — It’d be easier to list. However, in this case involving a natural gas pipeline under the pressure of 300 to 360 feet (8 atmospheres to 10 atm.) of water, I’d like you to turn your eyes towards a fun little quirk of nature called “methane hydrates”. Well, actually, I’d like you to meditate upon “hydrate plug”, but give me a moment. Under certain circumstances of pressure, temperature, and water presence natural gas/methane will form solid hydrates, with concomitant amounts of fun. For the Chinese definition of fun, anyway…" ---
**Author:** ![am77494](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d2c977/32.png) [@am77494](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/am77494)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2022, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320/117 "2022-10-14T03:44:00Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > It only needs to be one person. Plenty of navies have underwater demolitions specialists, and any one of them, active duty or discharged, might have sympathies with some group or another. And that same one person might very well be able to obtain the explosives: Timothy McVeigh did, for instance. In my opinion, it is highly unlikely that it was a work of a single person because it requires multiple expertise such as : 1. Recent maps of the pipeline. Intelligent PIGs (Pipe Internal Gauging) systems are used to map out the location of the pipelines. Basically a instrumented system flows inside the pipeline and is tracked using a ship on the water surface. The pipeline moves around with time and recent maps will be needed to place the explosive. 2. Even when maps are available, underwater location is not like plugging in an address on a GPS system. The pipeline is usually not visible to divers. In many seas, like the one in question, the bottom is murky and locating a pipeline which is buried is difficult. Certainly - its a lot of expertise to use the maps and correctly locate the pipeline. 3. Calculating the charge on the explosive : Timothy McVeigh just used a fertilizer bomb. Such bombs do not work underwater. At 80m, 262ft - it is extremely difficult to keep radiational explosives and their trigger mechanisms water proof and working. The very fact that someone knew the amount of explosive to use, probably a shape charge, method of locating the explosive, trype of explosive etc. etc. - makes me think it was an expert or a team of experts. ---
**Author:** ![am77494](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d2c977/32.png) [@am77494](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/am77494)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2022, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320/118 "2022-10-14T03:54:45Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Any pipe that long will have some nonzero amount of leakage, so to maintain pressure, it’s necessary to continue to pump some quantity of gas into the pipe. And some bean-counting penny-pinching idiot might have decided that it was too expensive to continually pump methane into the pipe that they weren’t getting paid for, and so decided to start pumping in ordinary air, instead. That has a chance of 10^-12 or less of happening. The system is protected using a Safety System (SIS) with high reliability The pipeline is designed and operated to DNV and other international specifications. The operator is the last line of defense in process/control systems. Usually scenarios like the one you describe are analyzed in a formal study called HAZOP. Based on the review, scenarios that can result in failures like the sort you describe get SIL ratings. For scenarios like these, the instruments are triplicated to reduce spurious alarms. And in addition to the Control System, there is a Safety System - which is a high reliability computing system and will safely discharge the system if it detects abnormalities like air. Moreover, the system pressure is always many many times the pressure of air (right from the point Natural Gas comes out of the ground). It is not possible for air to leak into the pipe - rather natural gas can only leak out. There are so many safeguards to prevent air from entering the system that I can fill pages with it. ---
**Author:** ![am77494](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/d2c977/32.png) [@am77494](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/am77494)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2022, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320/119 "2022-10-14T04:00:17Z")
> [@smithsb](#): > > Well, actually, I’d like you to meditate upon “hydrate plug”, but give me a moment. > > Under certain circumstances of pressure, temperature, and water presence natural gas/methane will form solid hydrates, with concomitant amounts of fun. Utter B/S Natural gas is dehydrated using either a mol-seive system or a Glycol System before putting into pipelines. During long periods of shutdown, there is Methanol injection to prevent hydrate formation. For the formation of hydrate plugs, you need the continuous flow of natural gas with moisture - a shut down pipeline does not have that. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2022, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320/120 "2022-10-14T10:52:54Z")
> [@am77494](#): > > In my opinion, it is highly unlikely that it was a work of a single person because it requires multiple expertise such as : So in other words, they’d need an underwater demolitions expert, an underwater demolitions expert, and an underwater demolitions expert? Those are all things the same people would be trained in. > [@am77494](#): > > That has a chance of 10^-12 or less of happening. The system is protected using a Safety System (SIS) with high reliability… Nuclear plants have all sorts of safety systems, too, and yet, Chernobyl. All of those safety systems didn’t matter, because the people running the plant deliberately bypassed them, because they were so idiotic as to think that it was a good idea. > [@am77494](#): > > Moreover, the system pressure is always many many times the pressure of air (right from the point Natural Gas comes out of the ground). It is not possible for air to leak into the pipe - rather natural gas can only leak out. And air also can’t leak in because it’s, you know, underwater. I’m not talking about air leaking in. I’m talking about air being deliberately pumped in, because someone involved was an idiot. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-would-the-nord-stream-pipelines-have-been-sabotaged/972320.md?page=7)