# Wild West Tuesday, 3/22/16 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 21, 2016, 7:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737 "2016-03-21T07:04:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737/21 "2016-03-23T13:43:11Z")
> [@Biffy\_the\_Elephant\_Shrew](#): > > Allow me to shed some: Bernie beat Hillary yesterday 57-51 and had a hugely successful rally in California, where a win could really turn things around. Actually not a bad day for the old white-haired fart. Bernie isn’t dead. I mean, life support is still living right? Is that your point? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737/22 "2016-03-23T13:57:38Z")
> [@Biffy\_the\_Elephant\_Shrew](#): > > Allow me to shed some: Bernie beat Hillary yesterday 57-51 How are you arriving at that number? According to the green papers site Clinton got 46 (AZ)+6 (ID)+7 (UT)=59 pledged delegates. Sanders got 23+17+18=58 ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737/23 "2016-03-23T14:05:40Z")
The problem for Bernie is, he won two out of three, gained, at best, 6 votes vis-a-vis Clinton, and still trails by more than 300 delegates (not counting the superdelegates). That math means he runs out of states before he gets the needed votes. But I do agree that California could be…entertaining…but it doesn’t occur until 7 June. New York and Pennsylvania come first (late April) and if Hilary takes a big chunk of delegates from those two big states, California may not figure in the final counting. We shall see. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737/24 "2016-03-23T14:08:36Z")
> [@Biffy\_the\_Elephant\_Shrew](#): > > Bernie … had a hugely successful rally in California, where a win could really turn things around. If he’s depending on the June 7th primary to turn things around, it might very well be too late. ---
**Author:** ![Biffy\_the\_Elephant\_Shrew](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e47c2d/32.png) [@Biffy\_the\_Elephant\_Shrew](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffy_the_Elephant_Shrew)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737/25 "2016-03-23T14:10:54Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > Bernie isn’t dead. I mean, life support is still living right? Is that your point? LOL. “A win is really a loss!” You just keep telling yourself that if it gets you through the night. I want to see what happens in NY, PA, and CA before counting anyone out. > [@CarnalK](#): > > How are you arriving at that number? According to the green papers site Clinton got 46 (AZ)+6 (ID)+7 (UT)=59 pledged delegates. Sanders got 23+17+18=58 That figure includes the unpledged delegates; I was looking only at the delegates picked up yesterday (41 + 5 + 5 vs. 22 + 18 + 17). Autocorrect insists on changing “unpledged” to “unplugged.” ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737/26 "2016-03-23T14:14:42Z")
> **[Arizona Democratic Delegation 2016](http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/AZ-D)** > > Arizona Democratic Delegation 2016 My numbers did not include unpledged as far as I know - I took them from the “hard total” column. What site are you taking those numbers from. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737/27 "2016-03-23T14:36:17Z")
Interesting. Trump (he split states with Cruz on Tuesday, but picked up 18 more delegates than he did (58-40), and now has 59.8% of the delegates he needs to win on the first ballot, while Cruz has 37.6% of what he needs to have a winning majority. So IMHO, Trump has the only clear path to the nomination, the others can but frustrate him at this point. Next biggies are New York on 19 April, and “Super Tuesday-Episode III” on the 26th with Connecticut, Deleware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island on the ballot. Lots of delegates at stake there, and in an area of the country where Trump is probably stronger than Cruz. Interesting Times. Looks like the Dems have 3 states this weekend (Alaska, Hawaii, Washington) and Bing says all of them lean Sanders, but they have the same states in late April as the Pubs do, and those could be the decider. We shall see. ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737/28 "2016-03-23T14:37:21Z")
[The NYT](http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results) is showing the delegate count for the day to be 67 - 51 in favor of Bernie. I’m not sure where they’re getting their numbers from, delegate math makes my brain chafe, but I think it’s fair to say that Bernie did pretty well. ---
**Author:** ![Biffy\_the\_Elephant\_Shrew](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e47c2d/32.png) [@Biffy\_the\_Elephant\_Shrew](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffy_the_Elephant_Shrew)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737/29 "2016-03-23T14:40:28Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > What site are you taking those numbers from. Actually I spoke too soon, as final results are still coming in from AZ and UT, with Bernie’s count increasing in both while Hillary so far stays the same. (Google’s “Presidential Primaries” display.) ---
**Author:** ![Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/b4bc9f/32.png) [@Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulf_the_Unwashed)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737/30 "2016-03-23T14:47:25Z")
> [@Biffy\_the\_Elephant\_Shrew](#): > > Allow me to shed some: Bernie beat Hillary yesterday 57-51 and had a hugely successful rally in California, where a win could really turn things around. Actually not a bad day for the old white-haired fart. Sanders has had “hugely successful rallies” in all kinds of states. He’s won some of those states. He’s lost others. Sanders had great rallies in Massachusetts, which he lost, and in Illinois, which he lost, and in Ohio, where he lost badly, and in Arizona, where he got clobbered. If we went by rally numbers he’d have clinched the nomination a couple of weeks ago. Perhaps you’ve noticed: he hasn’t. For that matter, mitt Romney had huge rallies. So did Walter Mondale. The key is whether your “hugely successful rally” can translate into votes. Very often it doesn’t. Demographically CA is going to be a tough state for Sanders. And a Sanders win in CA, unless it’s by a huge margin, isn’t going to come close to “turn[ing] things around.” How much do you think he’s going to win by? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737/31 "2016-03-23T14:49:32Z")
> [@steronz](#): > > [The NYT](http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results) is showing the delegate count for the day to be 67 - 51 in favor of Bernie. I’m not sure where they’re getting their numbers from, delegate math makes my brain chafe, but I think it’s fair to say that Bernie did pretty well. The problem is, Bernie’s still ~300 delegates behind Hillary. He needs 19 more days where he makes up as much ground as he did last night. ETA: Ninja’d by **Ulf**. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737/32 "2016-03-23T14:54:32Z")
We’ve been hearing a few places of Democrats being unable to vote, but it seems difficult to call Republican shenanigans on it: It’s a primary, and one that Clinton is by now all but guaranteed to win. What would it profit the Republicans to interfere one way or the other? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737/33 "2016-03-23T14:55:19Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Right now “Other” is beating everyone except Trump in Arizona. Other could go all the way! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737/34 "2016-03-23T14:56:55Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > We’ve been hearing a few places of Democrats being unable to vote, but it seems difficult to call Republican shenanigans on it: It’s a primary, and one that Clinton is by now all but guaranteed to win. What would it profit the Republicans to interfere one way or the other? Nothing, but that would not stop them from being dickheads just because they can. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737/35 "2016-03-23T14:57:28Z")
We’ll see. Google has 100% results for Idaho but only has 22 of the 23 delegates assigned. ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737/36 "2016-03-23T14:58:28Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > The problem is, Bernie’s still ~300 delegates behind Hillary. He needs 19 more days where he makes up as much ground as he did last night. > > ETA: Ninja’d by **Ulf**. And 12 remaining primary days to do it in. He isn’t mathematically eliminated. This run of states will be good for him…but very few people think it will be good enough. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737/37 "2016-03-23T15:03:24Z")
> [@steronz](#): > > [The NYT](http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results) is showing the delegate count for the day to be 67 - 51 in favor of Bernie. I’m not sure where they’re getting their numbers from, delegate math makes my brain chafe, but I think it’s fair to say that Bernie did pretty well. We’ll see how it shakes out but there were 131 delegates up for grabs which 67+51 does not equal. ---
**Author:** ![Biffy\_the\_Elephant\_Shrew](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e47c2d/32.png) [@Biffy\_the\_Elephant\_Shrew](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffy_the_Elephant_Shrew)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737/38 "2016-03-23T15:04:40Z")
> [@Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](#): > > And a Sanders win in CA, unless it’s by a huge margin, isn’t going to come close to “turn[ing] things around.” How much do you think he’s going to win by? Shrug. Ask me on June 8. I won’t know till then, and neither will you. But win or lose, I do think it’s going to end up a closer contest than most people around here would like to admit. All this “Stick a fork in him! Now! NOW! Hillary has it sewn up! Stop him!” stuff just reeks of desperation. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737/39 "2016-03-23T15:06:05Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > We’ve been hearing a few places of Democrats being unable to vote, but it seems difficult to call Republican shenanigans on it: It’s a primary, and one that Clinton is by now all but guaranteed to win. What would it profit the Republicans to interfere one way or the other? Practice makes perfect. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2016, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737/40 "2016-03-23T15:14:03Z")
> [@Biffy\_the\_Elephant\_Shrew](#): > > All this “Stick a fork in him! Now! NOW! Hillary has it sewn up! Stop him!” stuff just reeks of desperation. Really? Only one of the two is in a desperate situation, and it isn’t her. Perhaps you think Sanders has a realistic chance at this point of doing something more than preaching his views, but that’s arguing against the data. It is simply good politics for Clinton to turn to the general election now, and focus on contrasting herself with Trump instead of Sanders. If the primary season were sales, it would be called the “assumed close”, a very effective technique. By starting her campaign for November now, she can close up her control of the high ground while Trump is still fending off Cruz, Kasich, and the entire establishment of his party. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wild-west-tuesday-3-22-16/749737.md?page=3)