[QUOTE=Chronos]
I was wondering if anyone would bring that up. Yes, even with only gravitational interactions, orbits will eventually decay. But the question was about two-body interactions. If you’re considering the loss of energy due to gravitational radiation, then the approximation that the system is a two-body system fails: The gravitational field itself must be considered a “third body”.
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Sure, but if you’re talking about a gravitationally bound system it seems kind of silly to ignore the higher-order terms in the gravitational field. Similarly as a two-body problem I guess if Earth and Moon collided they would have to bounce off each other, but that seems silly too.
There is a question of the thermodynamic equilibrium point (also related to David Simmons’ question)–if orbiting bodies are constantly pumping energy into gravitational radiation, where does all this energy go? Do we end up with a very hot gravitational field and very low-temperature matter? The short answer is that they ought to reach a thermodynamic equilibrium. This is complicated, though, by the expansion of the universe, which redshifts radiation and hence reduces its energy more quickly than it cools matter. In an expanding universe I would expect to see more energy pumped into the gravitational field than extracted back out to matter motion, on average.
This is analogous to the case of electromagnetic radiation, much of which in fact has not been absorbed by dust. The EM decoupling time z~1000 was the last time when matter and electromagnetic radiation were in overall thermodynamic equilibrium. Since that time, cosmological redshifts have cooled the EM field to the 2.725K we see today. --In particular, we see it today; the cosmic microwave background radiation we measure is electromagnetic radiation that hasn’t scattered appreciably since decoupling, ~13 billion years ago.
So where does cosmically redshifted energy go? I don’t know. Conservation of energy is a local principle, and is as far as I know is not generally thought to apply cosmologically in an expanding universe. Note that the early universe is thought to have been radiation-dominated–that is, having far more energy in radiation than in matter, and hence having a stress-energy tensor approximately that of pure radiation–but soon transitioned to a matter-dominated universe, because of this redshifting. (It may have recently transitioned to an accelerating dark-energy-dominated universe.)
As for observability of gravitational radiation, it’s true (as Mathochist says) that we haven’t yet “directly” observed gravitational waves. “Direct” observation, in this case, means observing strains in the spacetime curvature of order (IIRC) one part in 10[sup]21[/sup] which can arise as a result of the final stages of decay of orbits of compact massive objects (primarily neutron stars and black holes) sufficiently close to us, and comparing the signal to those expected for theoretical (usually large finite-element simulation) results for those collisions. Even these “strong” signals are so tiny that noise is an enormous problem. LIGO, for example, is trying to measure optical-path-length differences, over its kilometer-scale interferometer, of order 10[sup]-18[/sup]m --not just smaller than an atom, but smaller than an atomic nucleus.