Agreed, and I have to admit I was wrong about this – I thought he would already have been forced to resign. I’ve been surprised by how craven the party has been on this; that they should stick by Boris, as he’s a vote-winner, and who cares if he broke the ministerial code?
At the risk of a typical hijack, it does feel like maybe the effect of Trump-ish politics. The Conservatives are nowhere near as disgusting as the GOP, don’t get me wrong. Even bearing in mind the Brexit tactics. But this feels like a step in that direction.
Anyway, they’re wrong. Boris isn’t a vote-winner any more. All he ever had was a degree of likability so now he has no redeeming qualities to just about anybody.
And if they trigger a leadership election and Johnson wins then the party rules state there cannot be another leadership election for at least another year. At the moment there is just not an obvious candidate to rally around. So half the parliamentary party might want him gone but they know that timing is everything.
Boris Johnson ‘says it will take army of tanks to get him out of Downing Street’
Actually, 119 of his MPs, if 54 call for a vote. And even if he wins such a vote, anything less than a thumping victory could leave him looking weak and even more lacking in authority, to the point where he’d have to call it a day anyway.
Jeremy Corbyn didn’t. Perhaps he set an “example” for Johnson.
I don’t think Johnson’s ego will let him leave until he’s forced out, likely by angry and/or frightened Conservative MPs (can they try more than once?). Johnson will probably keep talking about how he won a big (seat) majority in the last election. I think he dodged the worst of the Sue Gray inquiry for now and will hang on until the full Gray report comes out or the police report comes out.
According to Tory Party rules, not for 12 months if he wins even a bare majority. But how would the voters look on a party, [50-?]% of whose MPs voted not to support their leader?
Yes, Corbyn soldiered on as opposition leader despite opposition from his MPs, because his party’s rules made it more difficult to unseat him while he also had significant support from the unions and the wider membership - but where, in the end, did that get him and them?
My guess is that Johnson will try to stay at any cost at least until his tenure as Prime Minister lasts one day longer than David Cameron’s did. This pissing contest is very important to him.
I am too lazy to calculate when this day may be, I hope it is soon.
Cameron was PM for more than six years, Johnson has been PM for less than three years. Johnson most definitely won’t last another three years. He might not last another three weeks.
Exactly right. That’s the game of chicken the Conservatives are playing right now. Most of them would be happy if Boris simply evaporated; he’s fulfilled the function for which they supported him, and they’d like to move on. But removing a PM who doesn’t want to go is likely to be a messy and difficult process, and there’s a major risk that the public battle will get stink all over the party, which would be very bad going into May. They’re trying to thread a couple of very narrow needles, figuring out if they can surgically remove him without damaging themselves, or alternatively leave him in place, also without damaging themselves. It’s quite a dilemma, with many delicate moving parts that are not familiar to the average American observer.
Well, this American is appreciating this thread very much … even if some of the delicate parts are a bit opaque to me. Also, I’m suffering some kind of inside out version of schadenfreude where I’m saddened that another country is almost as screwed up as mine.
