# Will Bush allow Obrador to become president of Mexico? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 27, 2005, 6:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847 "2005-08-27T06:53:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2005, 6:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847/1 "2005-08-27T06:53:49Z")
Inspired by this thread: [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=331690](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=331690) Also by this thread: [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=329191](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=329191) I heard on the radio today that at present, Manuel Lopez Obrador ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrés\_Manuel\_López\_Obrador](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andr%C3%A9s_Manuel_L%C3%B3pez_Obrador)), the former mayor of Mexico City, who will be running next year as the left-wing PRD candidate for the Mexican presidency, is enjoying a popularity rating of nearly 70%. Now, a lot could change between now and the election, but for the moment he is clearly the front-runner. Which might have W scared shitless, despite Obrador’s recent assurances that he will not substantially change Mexico’s NAFTA commitments. I mean, having a leftist like Hugo Chavez as president of Venezuela is bad enough, but a leftist president of Mexico? One of the U.S.’ most important trading partners? One of our nearest two neighbors? I’m thinking that’s the kind of possibility that might provoke the Bush Admin into . . . well, use your imagination. Will next year’s Mexican election be allowed to proceed as planned without foreign interference? And, if so, will Obrador be allowed to (live long enough to\*) take office? \*Old joke: Jesse Jackson arrives at the Pearly Gates. St. Peter: What did you achieve during your time on Earth? Jackson: I was the first African-American ever elected president of the United States! St. Peter: Really? Wow! When did that happen? Jackon: Ten minutes ago. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2005, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847/2 "2005-08-28T04:29:24Z")
Obrador is an asshole and would be a disaster. But if he’s the man Mexicans choose, Bush will hold his nose and deal with him. Obrador wouldn’t be in charge more than 6 years anyway. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2005, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847/3 "2005-08-28T05:37:24Z")
And what could Bush do to stop Sr. Obrador from getting electing? Any behind the scenes attempt to interfear in Mexico’s election would backfire horribly. A more active approach (invasion) is unthinkable. ---
**Author:** ![Speaker\_for\_the\_Dead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c77e96/32.png) [@Speaker\_for\_the\_Dead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Speaker_for_the_Dead)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2005, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847/4 "2005-08-28T05:56:02Z")
Haven’t such tactics worked in previous cases? If I knew more of recent American history, I’d give cites, but I’ve heard it stated as fact on several occasions that the CIA have interfered with democratic processes in other coutries in the past. ---
**Author:** ![Tapioca\_Dextrin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Tapioca\_Dextrin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tapioca_Dextrin)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2005, 6:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847/5 "2005-08-28T06:11:55Z")
[Operation Ajax](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_ajax) - CIA sponsored overthrow of democatic Iran in 1953. [Oeation PB success](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_PBSUCCESS) - CIA sponsored removal of democarcy in Panama (1953). Then there was the [Bay of Pigs](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Pigs_invasion) invasion of Cuba (1961). I’m sure there’s others ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2005, 6:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847/6 "2005-08-28T06:40:15Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > Obrador is an asshole and would be a disaster. And you base that on . . .? I mean, Hugo Chavez, who is a lot further to the left than Obrador, has very definitely not (so far, knock wood) been a disaster for Venezuela. See this thread: [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=310630](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=310630) ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2005, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847/7 "2005-08-28T14:05:58Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > I mean, Hugo Chavez, who is a lot further to the left than Obrador, has very definitely not (so far, knock wood) been a disaster for Venezuela. See this thread: [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=310630](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=310630) Actually, in the thread you referenced, everybody except you is saying that Chavez is a disaster for Venezuela. ---
**Author:** ![furt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/439d5e/32.png) [@furt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/furt)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2005, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847/8 "2005-08-28T14:45:52Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > I’m thinking that’s the kind of possibility that might provoke the Bush Admin into . . . well, use your imagination. My imagination is failing me. Are you seriously suggesting that in 2005, the US would try to depose the elected leader of a major trading partner? That’s a far more serious thing than replacing the head of Guatemala or Panama, and I daresay things have changed a bit since the Cold War. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2005, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847/9 "2005-08-28T15:12:26Z")
Well, according to this cite, the Kennedy Administration plotted successfully to bring down the Diefenbaker government because Prime Minister Diefenbaker wouldn’t allow US nuclear warheads on Canadian soil: [1962-1963, ‘Knocking Over’ “Dief the Chief”: How the U.S. Ambassador Helped Engineer “Regime Change” in Canada](http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/SAN303D.html). ---
**Author:** ![Unregistered\_Bull](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/3da27b/32.png) [@Unregistered\_Bull](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Unregistered_Bull)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2005, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847/10 "2005-08-28T15:23:01Z")
A better question is will certain elements in the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) or the National Action Party (PAN) allow it? Neither Murrieta nor Sedillo were killed by the US’s CIA AFAIK. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2005, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847/11 "2005-08-28T17:06:12Z")
> [@furt](#): > > Are you seriously suggesting that in 2005, the US would try to depose the elected leader of a major trading partner? We did the same thing in 2002, didn’t we? [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugo\_Chavez#Coup\_attempt\_against\_Ch.C3.A1vez](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugo_Chavez#Coup_attempt_against_Ch.C3.A1vez) It was a home-grown coup attempt, but the U.S. sure as shit gave the plotters aid and comfort. Wouldn’t be that difficult for the CIA to set up something similar in Mexico, or else to prevent Obrador from becoming president in the first place by arranging an accident. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2005, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847/12 "2005-08-28T17:22:28Z")
> [@Captain Amazing](#): > > Actually, in the thread you referenced, everybody except you is saying that Chavez is a disaster for Venezuela. Not everybody. Read the thread again. Furthermore, those who insist Chavez has been/will be a disaster – **Sam Stone, ale, Brutus** – offer nothing of substance to back it up. **Sam** says: > [@](#): > > unilaterally decided that it was bad for his country to participate in foreign exchange, and instituted exchange controls that have starved private industry of capital. This decision was a strong contributor to the collapse of the economy after Chavez took power. Only, when did the Venezuelan economy collapse? There was a 7.2% contraction in 1999 ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy\_of\_Venezuela](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Venezuela)), but it wasn’t the Great Depression. Venezuela seems to be thriving now. The only poster in the thread who actually comes from Venezuela is **gsilvau** – and while he/she insists Chavez’ policies are not a good model for developing countries, he/she can point to no actual instance where those policies have been a disaster for the economy. Yet. Of course, it may be too soon to tell. As for Chavez’ human rights record, I repeat what I said there: Chavez did prison time for his coup attempt in 1992. But most of the people who tried to overthrow Chavez in 2002 are – astonishingly and even disturbingly – still **free.** They would not be, if it had happened in practically any other Latin American country, or in the United States. So, I repeat: Hugo Chavez, much further left (in rhetoric, at least) than Obrador, has not been a disaster for Venezuela. So why does **astorian** assume Obrador would be a disaster for Mexico? ---
**Author:** ![Mapache](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/58956e/32.png) [@Mapache](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mapache)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2005, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847/13 "2005-08-28T17:24:31Z")
> [@Unregistered Bull](#): > > A better question is will certain elements in the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) or the National Action Party (PAN) allow it? Neither Murrieta nor Sedillo were killed by the US’s CIA AFAIK. Who are Murietta and Sedillo? If you mean ex-president Zedillo. he wasn´t killed by anyone; he´s still alive although he avoids the spotlight, mostly, which is what retired Mexican presidents are traditionally supposed to do. Murietta? There was an outlaw in California named Joaquin Murietta who was, maybe, killed by the California equivalent of the Texas Rangers, but that was in 1853. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2005, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847/14 "2005-08-28T19:17:22Z")
> [@Unregistered Bull](#): > > A better question is will certain elements in the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) or the National Action Party (PAN) allow it? Neither Murrieta nor Sedillo were killed by the US’s CIA AFAIK. I share **Mapache’s** perplexity on this point, and, moreover, I have never heard of the PRI or PAN being implicated, even by rumor, in any political assassination. Do you have any examples (with more info)? ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2005, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847/15 "2005-08-28T19:59:40Z")
I believe **Unregistered Bull** has mixed up the assassination of Colosio with the victory of Zedillo. I also believe Murietta is a mistake for Massieu. [Link.](http://www.galbithink.org/topics/mex/ps.htm) ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2005, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847/16 "2005-08-28T20:50:23Z")
> [@Tapioca Dextrin](#): > > [Operation Ajax](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_ajax) - CIA sponsored overthrow of democatic Iran in 1953. > > [Oeation PB success](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_PBSUCCESS) - CIA sponsored removal of democarcy in Panama (1953). > > Then there was the [Bay of Pigs](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Pigs_invasion) invasion of Cuba (1961). > > I’m sure there’s others Operation PB success was the overthrow of the elected president of Guatemalan in 1954. ---
**Author:** ![Unregistered\_Bull](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/3da27b/32.png) [@Unregistered\_Bull](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Unregistered_Bull)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2005, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847/17 "2005-08-28T21:21:55Z")
> [@This Year's Model](#): > > I believe **Unregistered Bull** has mixed up the assassination of Colosio with the victory of Zedillo. I also believe Murietta is a mistake for Massieu. > > [Link.](http://www.galbithink.org/topics/mex/ps.htm) :smack: Yes. Sometimes I should never rely on my memory. :o FWIW Colosio’s _apellido materno_ is Murrieta. Luis Donaldo Colosio Murrieta. Amazing what a little Google will do. :o 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2005, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847/18 "2005-08-28T21:59:56Z")
> [@furt](#): > > My imagination is failing me. Are you seriously suggesting that in 2005, the US would try to depose the elected leader of a major trading partner? That’s a far more serious thing than replacing the head of Guatemala or Panama, and I daresay things have changed a bit since the Cold War. Whenever a Latin American government comes under the control of a government that the United States doesn’t like, the United States attempts to remove that government and replaces it with a dictatorship. Besides the examples already mentioned, there’s also Chile, obviously, as well as less direct U.S. interference elsewhere. The attempted coup in Venezuela was in 2002, so the end of the Cold War certainly did not alter the policy. On the other hand, it’s true that Mexico is larger, wealthier, and closer to home than any of the other countries where America-backed coups have taken place. So would the U.S. actually overthrow the Mexican government? In my opinion, they would. In the past, CIA-backed governments have tortured and murdered thousands of people (Chile and Guatemala), so clearly moral scruples will not get in the way. And regardless of what crimes are committed, there has never been the slightest danger that the United States will be held accountable for its policy; a gigantic military means never having to say you’re sorry. So clearly the U.S. could overthrow the Mexican government and has little reason to refrain from doing so. The only question is whether the Bushies actually view the rise of a left-wing government as a big enough concern to take action. Big picture: capitalist policies have failed across much of Latin America. As a result, people in many countries are rising up and challenging pro free-market dictators, and supporting democratically-elected socialist governments. It happened in Venezuela. It happened in Ecuador. It happened in Bolivia. It is happening in Mexico. It will happen in other countries as well. Needless to say, this makes the neocons very unhappy. Reading ‘The Economist’ or ‘Forbes’, they try to portray the changes in the worst possible lights. The corrupt politicians who get deposed become heroes of democracy, the legitimate democratic movements become bands of violent thugs. The neocons do not really support democracy, except in those cases where the people will elect politicians that the neocons approve of. And as a result, the neocons see nothing wrong with calling in the CIA (or worse) to topple these newly created democracies. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2005, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847/19 "2005-08-28T22:15:12Z")
Bush is gone in 2009. Are we further suggesting that he would engineer a coup in Mexico to avoid 2-3 years of dealing with a left-wing President of Mexico who has promised not to change major economic policies? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2005, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847/20 "2005-08-29T00:19:33Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Bush is gone in 2009. Are we further suggesting that he would engineer a coup in Mexico to avoid 2-3 years of dealing with a left-wing President of Mexico who has promised not to change major economic policies? Yep. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-bush-allow-obrador-to-become-president-of-mexico/318847.md?page=2)