# Will Canada Join OPEC? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [December 4, 2003, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-canada-join-opec/216942 "2003-12-04T14:39:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2003, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-canada-join-opec/216942/1 "2003-12-04T14:39:11Z")
I read recently that Canada has gotten to the point that extracting oil from the Alberta Tar Sands is now economically viable-I heard the extraction costs run about $10.00/barrel. Also, Canadian govt. geologists now estimate reserves (in these tar sands) as 175 billion barrels-possibly a lot more. My question: is canada intending tobe a major world player in the oil market? Surely, adding such a huge resrve to the market might well depress prices…so logically, would Canada want to join OPEC top keep the pricing up? Incidentally, the article I read mentioned that the USA (which has a similar situation in Colorado (the Green River oil shales)), has totally dropped the ball-no work on extracting the oil from the shale is taking place at all. So, will we shortly see a Canadian oil minister (wearing a kaffieyeh) attending OPEC meetings (with the other extortionists)? ---
**Author:** ![Neurotik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/91b2a8/32.png) [@Neurotik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Neurotik)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2003, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-canada-join-opec/216942/2 "2003-12-04T15:04:18Z")
Why would the Canadian oil minister wear a kaffiyeh? Venezuela’s rep doesn’t. And I’m assuming that goes for Indonesia’s and Nigeria’s. And in any case, Canada would have to become a major world exporter of oil, which I don’t think it will even with the shale. So no, Canada will not likely join OPEC. ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2003, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-canada-join-opec/216942/3 "2003-12-04T15:32:51Z")
Well sheer scale of exports and production doesn’t necessarily make a country a member of OPEC. Russia is the second largest exporter of oil, I believe, and it is _not_ a member. I think it requires substantial oil reserves and a certain amount of centralized control over production to maintain X Million barrels/day. Autocratic or countries with complete or majority control over their oil production could mandate such a restriction. I don’t think Canada would fit that situation though. Besides our thing is to wear a toque or poor boy hat. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 8:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-canada-join-opec/216942/4 "2003-12-05T08:13:49Z")
Almost all of Canada’s oil is in Alberta. Alberta would never go along with joining OPEC. It’s a very conservative province, very pro-US. If it were a U.S. state, it’d be Bush country. I don’t see us joining a cartel to squeeze the U.S. and the rest of the world. And what do you mean Canada would be a small player in the world market? Including the tar sands, Alberta has the 2nd largest reserve of oil in the wold. Only Saudi Arabia has more. Some estimates for the amount of recoverable oil in the tar sands are as high as 315 million barrels, which would give Canada the largest oil reserves in the world. ---
**Author:** ![SeekingTruth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/34f0e0/32.png) [@SeekingTruth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SeekingTruth)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 8:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-canada-join-opec/216942/5 "2003-12-05T08:29:24Z")
Second that Sam. Western Canada is much more on par with America. This is why I pray for independence anytime Quebec brings it up. Why on Earth would Canada join OPEC and give in to the org’s system? Just a few miles to the south Canada has a willing buyer. Take into account the currency rate, should Alberta harvest a resource that would otherwise sit idle doing nothing of value (no, a site of fossil fuel doesn’t do anything for anyone), Canada could easily become the newest Superpower. This is assuming Ottawa allows the drilling. My perfect world? Living in North Dakota, I’d love to see this. Alberta gets the oil out, and every province from Manitoba wetward seceeds and declares independence. I hate seeing such a large part of the country having to follow what the Easterners want. Imagine the entire US being run by what New Yorkers and Californians want. Probably could have been said better, but what the hell. Flame away ---
**Author:** ![Balthisar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/balthisar/32/2825_2.png) [@Balthisar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balthisar)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-canada-join-opec/216942/6 "2003-12-05T11:09:19Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by SeekingTruth \* > \*\*…I hate seeing such a large part of the country having to follow what the Easterners want. Imagine the entire US being run by what New Yorkers and Californians want. \*\* \(sorry) _This_ is why our electoral college presidential selection scheme and the two-chamber congress works so wonderfully. Direct elections and pure popular representation would otherwise lead to exactly what you describe. \ \ ---
**Author:** ![Fyodor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/958977/32.png) [@Fyodor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fyodor)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-canada-join-opec/216942/7 "2003-12-05T13:25:44Z")
There’s a serious plan afoot to build a multi-billion dollar pipeline from the oil sands country to Prince Rupert on the British Columbia coast and get into the international supertanker trade, targetting Asian markets. As a Canadian oilman I see no good reason whatsoever to have anything to do with OPEC, natural resources fall under provincial jurisdiction and all OPEC membership would do is create a bunch of taxpayer funded jobs, patronage appointments of incompetent friends of the socialist federal government. Alberta would go ballistic if the federal government joined an organization that attempts to control oil prices, we haven’t forgotten the National Energy Policy disaster/black hole/economic disaster of the early 80s. ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-canada-join-opec/216942/8 "2003-12-05T14:03:09Z")
From the [US DoE](http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/perfpro/ch4sec6.html%5B/url) > [@](#): > > The Alberta Energy and Utilities Board has estimated the ultimate volume of crude bitumen in place to be 2.5 trillion barrels.d About 370 billion barrels of this volume are believed to be economically recoverable at current prices and with current technology.e Of the economically recoverable reserves, about 15 percent can be recovered using surface mining where the bitumen deposits are dug from the earth, while the remaining 85 percent require the use of in situ production processes, in which a well is drilled and the bitumen is extracted, often using unconventional technologies. So…we’re second to Saudi Arabia in reserves but the recoverable amounts are significantly less. Given the fact that Saudi crude can basically be piped right into a barrel, how does recovery costs of the oil sands compare? I’ll reiterate again that an OPEC country needs a certain autocratic tendency, and despite western misgivings, that’s not a description of Canada. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-canada-join-opec/216942/9 "2003-12-05T14:04:04Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Sam Stone \* > Almost all of Canada’s oil is in Alberta. Alberta would never go along with joining OPEC. It’s a very conservative province, very pro-US. If it were a U.S. state, it’d be Bush country. I don’t see us joining a cartel to squeeze the U.S. and the rest of the world. Without disputing your characterization of Alberta or the likelihood of Canada joining OPEC, what exactly does the fact that Alberta wouldn’t want to have to do with anything? International trade is a matter of federal jurisdiction. Alberta couldn’t opt out of OPEC any more than it can opt out of NAFTA. It’s up to the people of Ontario, same as everything else. I know you hate it. Don’t much care for it myself, but there it is. ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2003, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-canada-join-opec/216942/10 "2003-12-05T14:16:15Z")
But natural resources are a provincial issue. I would imagine export controls could be put on the oil (like softwood) but the extraction rate would be outside of Ottawa’s perview. I hope ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2003, 8:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-canada-join-opec/216942/11 "2003-12-06T08:07:19Z")
> [@](#): > > Without disputing your characterization of Alberta or the likelihood of Canada joining OPEC, what exactly does the fact that Alberta wouldn’t want to have to do with anything? International trade is a matter of federal jurisdiction. Alberta couldn’t opt out of OPEC any more than it can opt out of NAFTA. It’s up to the people of Ontario, same as everything else. I know you hate it. Don’t much care for it myself, but there it is. Alberta won’t tolerate it. The last time Ottawa tried to meddle with our oil, Premier Lougheed went on provincial TV and told us all that he was shutting off the oil. Ottawa backed down. Grey: That 370 billion barrels would give Alberta the largest oil reserves in the world. Saudia Arabia has less than 300 billion barrels. ---
**Author:** ![Una\_Persson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/una_persson/32/346_2.png) [@Una\_Persson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Una_Persson)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2003, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-canada-join-opec/216942/12 "2003-12-06T14:05:34Z")
But, IIRC, the energy expense in recovering the tar sands oil results in an effective yield of only 10-15%. I know that they’ve been able to make some serious improvements in the last 5 years, however, so that figure may be out of date. All of my tar sands “dossier” is still at work so I can’t give you 2003 figures. ---
**Author:** ![SeekingTruth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/34f0e0/32.png) [@SeekingTruth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SeekingTruth)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2003, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-canada-join-opec/216942/13 "2003-12-06T14:18:50Z")
One thought concerning the provincial hold on resources. I don’t know what the federal laws in Canada are involving this, but I imagine it could fall under national reserves. What I’m thinking is “Imminent Domain”. Does Canada have this provision in the constitution? Why I thought this, let’s say here in North Dakota someone finds a huge oil deposit. There is no way in hell we get to keep the profit from it. It would fall under the jurisdiction of the US gov’t. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2003, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-canada-join-opec/216942/14 "2003-12-06T15:46:53Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Sam Stone \* > Alberta won’t tolerate it. The last time Ottawa tried to meddle with our oil, Premier Lougheed went on provincial TV and told us all that he was shutting off the oil. Ottawa backed down. Sounds like a bluff to me. The Alberta government is more addicted to oil revenue than Rush is to Oxycontin. Myself, if I were PM, I would laugh if Ralph said he’d turn off the oil. Laugh in his face. Whatever. Go ahead and turn off the tap. We’ll see how long that lasts. Let’s see you keep the roads paved with tax money from those giant profits the ranchers are making, what with the BSE and the drought and all. I agree there’s no chance Canada would join OPEC, and don’t deny that if we did Albertans would kick up a fuss to make the flap over Trudeau’s national energy policy look like a disagreement over which way to hang the toilet paper. Ultimately, however, if by some weird chance the federal government decided to join OPEC, there’s nothing short of secession that Alberta could do about it. It’s not up to _you_. It’s up to _us_. **Grey** , export controls do dictate extraction rate. Indirectly, perhaps, but they do all the same. There’s no economic sense in extracting more than you can sell. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2003, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-canada-join-opec/216942/15 "2003-12-07T21:56:02Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by SeekingTruth \* > \*\*One thought concerning the provincial hold on resources. > > I don’t know what the federal laws in Canada are involving this, but I imagine it could fall under national reserves. What I’m thinking is “Imminent Domain”. Does Canada have this provision in the constitution?\*\* There’s two aspects to your question: who owns the natural resources, and which government has regulatory control over them? On the first, the answer is pretty straightforward. The [Constitution Act, 1867](http://laws.justice.gc.ca/en/const/c1867_e.html#revenues) provides that Crown minerals are held by the provincial governments: > [@](#): > > **109.** All Lands, Mines, Minerals, and Royalties belonging to the several Provinces of Canada, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick at the Union, and all Sums then due or payable for such Lands, Mines, Minerals, or Royalties, shall belong to the several Provinces of Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick in which the same are situate or arise, subject to any Trusts existing in respect thereof, and to any Interest other than that of the Province in the same. This provision has been extended to the other provincees, either as they joined Confederation (B.C., P.E.I., Nfld.), or some years afterwards, in 1931 (Man., Alta., Sask.). Of course, there’s nothing stopping a government from selling the minerals to a private party, or including them in the original grant of land. So I own the minerals under my house, becase they were included in the original grant of land from the Crown to the first private owner back in the last century, and have been handed along ever since. The second aspect of the question is which goverment can regulate natural resources. The _Constitution Act, 1867_ gives the province exclusive jurisdiction to enact laws governing the development of non-renewable natural resources: > [@](#): > > **92A.** (1) In each province, the legislature may exclusively make laws in relation to > (a) exploration for non-renewable natural resources in the province; > (b) development, conservation and management of non-renewable natural resources and forestry resources in the province, including laws in relation to the rate of primary production therefrom; and > © development, conservation and management of sites and facilities in the province for the generation and production of electrical energy. The federal government, on the other hand, has the power to regulate “Trade and Commerce”, which has been interpreted to mean international and interprovincial trade. So, the provinces can regulate non-renewable natural resources, but the feds control export, as **Gorsnak** points out. > [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by SeekingTruth \*Why I thought this, let’s say here in North Dakota someone finds a huge oil deposit. There is no way in hell we get to keep the profit from it. It would fall under the jurisdiction of the US gov’t. \*\* Why is this? Does the federal government own the mineral rights in North Dakota? I thought that Texas was doing quite well with oil revenues? ---
**Author:** ![Freddy\_the\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a587f6/32.png) [@Freddy\_the\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freddy_the_Pig)\ **Post date:** [December 8, 2003, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/will-canada-join-opec/216942/16 "2003-12-08T01:31:50Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Northern Piper \* > **Does the federal government own the mineral rights in North Dakota?** Only on public domain land, of which there isn’t much left in North Dakota–other than Theodore Roosevelt National Park and the surrounding Little Missouri National Grassland in the western part of the state. Where American land is privately owned, of course, the owner controls drilling and resource rights, just like in Canada. But, in most parts of the United States, when land is in the “public domain”, it belongs to the federal and not the state government. This has nothing whatsoever to do with eminent (not _imminent_) domain. And, unless **Seeking Truth** ’s hypothetical oil strike is on the national grassland, it has nothing to do with state versus federal control of North Dakota oil. > [@](#): > > \*\*I thought that Texas was doing quite well with oil revenues? \*\*Texas is an exception to the above. The act which admitted Texas as a state allowed it to keep the public domain land which it had held during its nine-year existence as an independent republic. Alaska is a partial exception. The act which admitted Alaska allowed it to reserve a portion of its public domain as state-owned land. I’m not an expert on Texas finances, but I don’t believe the state still owns enough land to derive much direct “oil revenue”. Mostly they just tax the economic activity fueled by oil extraction. Alaska, by contrast, reserved and still owns enough oil-producing land that it not only collects no income tax but actually pays you to live there. In the unlikely event that Alberta ever chooses to apply for statehood, I’m sure they will insist on a Texas-style public domain provision.